Very good point. This will be one where we will have to follow the HRRR very closely to see just how far back to the west and northwest that occurs. During the January 2002 storm that was shown earlier, the models didn’t pick up on FGEN forcing until the short range models were coming into view…. while not receiving the amount that eastern CLT metro and points NE received, the northern Foothills and mountains still received a solid snowfall… I would expect something similar in this set up
@Iceagewhereartthou see above. Globals don't pick up FGEN WAA generated precip. It is always more expansive and heavier than models can pick up on. This past weekend is a perfect example of that. Over running always has a more expansive precip field than what is modeled.
That one turned out to be a big bust in my area and went to the mountains
and there are some very good jet dynamics showing as well… all of that points to more expansive precip shield to the north and west
I remember you used to live in Union County, so you know how frustrating these last few years have been down this way with being just on the wrong side of the line. I am cautiously optimistic that this will finally be a decent hit for this part of CLT metroGiven how are last system played out and how most seem to play out, especially at the last minute. I feel like if you’re sitting from N. GA to the Carolina’s- I’d be cautiously optimistic that there is a decent chance you’ll see something. And for the first time in a while, I’m really optimistic for those along and South of 85. Fingers crossed.
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Yea 1/28/14 is the closer scenario, but I needed two recent overrunning events as my “proof” ?
it was definitely weird on Sunday snowing at 19 degrees. Roads were covered in 10 minutes of mod snow.
Sorry I posted too soon lolI want to get excited but I'm scared too lol, the 12z eps thus far, maybe a smidge better
So this is 6 hours before that temp map? Sign me up.I want to get excited but I'm scared too lol, the 12z eps thus far, maybe a smidge better
I think you are in a really solid place even with nuance movements over next 48hrs on the models.Sorry I posted too soon lol
That normally seems to be the case. I'd be curious to see the next few frames of the mesoscale models.
Is their a different p types or accumulation by it?
It looks like an almost even split between Miller A/B?
Actually more like a split between amped and flatter more suppressed, there really is nothing Miller B about this setup
It's looking very promising up that way Met, I hope you do well with this one. What's good for some may not be good for others but nothing we can do about it, If you miss with one just look for the next one. That's how we roll anyway!Sorry I posted too soon lol
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Yeah, surface temps look amazing for this one. Going to be huge for us. Minimal accumulation lost to melting and the roads were get covered nearly immediately. Will make it a very high impact event even if the raw totals aren’t huge. 2” in these conditions will be higher impact on travel than 6-10” at 33F.
