iGRXY
Member
UK also has a suppression bias in the LR. See yesterday’s storm as an example.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
I guess good luck figuring it all out. The first wave might swing and miss, but we need the high to really press in...Then wave #2 behind it for the weekend...which one works, which one doesn't....DOC up next.
?
brendan123
Member
Unless we pull a crazy NW tend (which certainly is possible, we saw what happened with yesterday’s storm), I think Central & NE North Carolina along with SE Virginia are sitting in the sweet spot right now. Weak, late blooming Miller A’s/overunning events tend to give us our biggest storms.
I’m telling y’all, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this end up with a January 2002 footprint.
This looks good to me at day 4...?
Southern energy is further east past few runs.
View attachment 107282
This is not far off from what the majority of interior SE want to see. Good timing/tilt it would seem.... too bad the UKMET was one of the last models to catch up with the last event...
No changes from me from my post a few days ago. Moisture is the problem. I hope someone way down east can score tho.
It was to progressive until it got inside day 4 and then got a clue.
iGRXY
Member
Sitting in the sweet spot at day 4 is the kiss of death. Every single time.
Brad seems more interested in the second wave for our chances in clt.
If we trend things SW from here,this would actually be a really good look for CSRA, Midlands of SC, Central/NE NC and SE VA. Too bad other models,espically the CMC look worse and delays the cold for areas south of NC.Gawx speacil
brendan123
Member
Yeah, I meant that seeing the GFS/ICON/UKMET set up the main axis of snow along the outer banks is good news for those areas. It is somewhat concerning though to see the Canadian, Euro, and the ensembles setting up the snow over Central NC and Southeast Va though. Doesn’t leave much margin for error.
Further to the above, here’s the track of the individual members. I couldn’t have drawn a better member map for a typical surface low track for a rare SE coastal winter storm. But alas, we know that there’s a bias that means a NW shift is more likely than not:
The WPC noted in their last discussion that they are basically refraining from "chasing waves" in this pattern that would knock their forecast all around. They're trying to stick to continuity.. so wouldn't be surprised to see their products potentailly not matching up with the models at times for our back yards. FWIW.
Here is their current Day 4:
Here is their current Day 4:
NoSnowATL
Member
I believe that’s correct, local PRO Mets are thinking the same way and I don’t blame them, past events have done the same and they are always too light on totals until the event actually starts and they play the caught up game like they did with this past system.
griteater
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Im just happy we have 2 weeks of possibilities.
If we're looking for some weak impulses riding along the arctic boundary creating mischief, this looks pretty good to me.
