lj0109
Member
18Z NAM 2m Temps about 6 degrees colder at hour 60 through Central South Carolina and EC Georgia compared to 12Z:
12Z:
18Z:
12Z:
18Z:
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
I still like what it’s doing with the southern stream, good tilt hereIn my opinion that it seems like a small step back from a phase compared to 12z. NS is just a touch further out ahead and its trying to get that elongated look just a little
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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TX wave looking very juicy! It’s gonna be good
NAM caving early on less precip n/w for NC on first wave
Cranking at 78 but precip struggling to come west
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah I think the initial precip on the front is getting squashed but the actual wave may look better here
iGRXY
Member
NAM honestly just looks slower overall more than suppressed to me with the main precip along the gulf
At 84 much better, precip expands west and plenty of cold. Wow
Nerman
Member
Come to Butthead
iGRXY
Member
The orientation of the southern stream really looks like it's going for full phase at the end of the run to me.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Interesting run for sure. Delays any significant precip almost 24 hours
iGRXY
Member
NAM at the end
iGRXY
Member
Really the first wave was a long shot for anybody outside of eastern NC. Everybody else needs to focus on the potential phasing of the streams like the NAM is showing.
Cary_Snow95
Member
vs
iGRXY
Member
Freezing rain to south of Savannah on the NAM...impressive
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Classic SE winter storm track! GSP to CLT get hammeredNAM at the end
lj0109
Member
Ouch:
WOOF! Just getting started too.
D
Deleted member 609
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Have to think this was a out to go full beast mode here
Look at these temps as the storm gets going, goodness
iGRXY
Member
That run was about to drop the hammer as the Vorts started consolidating.
wow
Member
NAM - oh so close to wrapping up and bombing out past 72 hrs
BHS1975
Member
The Carolina Crusher started out as an ice storm in Ga.
Jrips2710
Member
Atlanta getting hammered at 84. Bullseye is right where were we want to be on the 84hr NAM ?
NAM is not far off from what we want to see to get snow to more individuals....keep the wave positive tilt for a long time, then get the wave in the southwest to kick out and ideally phase a bit with the northern stream at the last minute
I don’t like how warm 850s are.Cary_Snow95
Member
The NAM is so different from the globals its insane
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Have a feeling, the precip shield may grow, hopefully it isn't just a i20 special, but the Alabama special lol
Cary_Snow95
Member
That solution probably warms 850s for eastern folks quite a bit though, no?
3hr rates are impressive. 0.25 to 0.35" precip over ATL, or about 3" of snow from HR81 to HR84
I think we have to remember this is the LR NAM. Good or bad, it’ll change and it’s far out of its wheelhouse.
wow
Member
So close to this...
iGRXY
Member
That expansion of precip is what is closer to reality based on the dynamics of how the precip is being generated. Regardless of whether the globals or the NAM is right that shows what I would expect the precip shield to look closer to. Now the temp situation and what those precip types are is a different story that we still need to iron out.
It's a tight setup. A bit of phasing would crash the termperatures aloft more to the east. If the SW wave doesn't kick out some and there's little phasing, you're not going to get much precip back into the area supportive of snow