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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

iGRXY said:
Short range trending with more digging of the energy which has been the trend in the short range this year. Much more expansive precip shield as well.
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In my opinion NAM didn't look nearly as good as the RGEM. Plus, we all know about its cold bias as well. We've got some work to do I think in western NC to get a warning criteria event. Hopefully models trends toward the GEFS axis where we can all get in on the fun.
 
griteater said:
RDPS did what @wow asked the NAM to do on his drawing

ixlsPDO.gif
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We should all do what @wow asks us to do.

The wild thing about that RGEM run, especially for those of us in the triangle N&W is we seemingly hadn’t even wetbulbed yet. I noticed Roxboro was 19/14 so theoretically, you could wetbulb in the mid teens with heavy snow.
 
SnowNiner said:
In my opinion NAM didn't look nearly as good as the RGEM. Plus, we all know about its cold bias as well. We've got some work to do I think in western NC to get a warning criteria event. Hopefully models trends toward the GEFS axis where we can all get in on the fun.
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RGEM is only cold biased at the surface and is in line with other model guidance on surface temps. RGEM and NAM are still in the same camp and depict a more robust precip shield on the NW side which is likely to take shape.
 
iGRXY said:
I think the money wave is the 2nd wave. I wouldn't expect many people to get much off the initial front coming though. The winter storm that we need to be more focused on is the 2nd wave forming and the end of the gulf.
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Kind of yes, but the RDPS has the ticket for many (not all) with phasing the 2 waves late. GFS is keeping the 2 waves separate, with the northern stream wave tracking too far north into the Ohio Valley, and the southern stream wave coming out late and weaker. RDPS is much better for many
 
I don't see anything improved on the GFS run unless the held back SW wave goes gangbusters at the end
 
GaWx said:
A large portion of this snow on the 18Z NAM clown is from ZR and some from sleet based on how far north the 850 0C line is, including the far south TX stuff. This image shows about as far south as it got on the 18Z NAM:

View attachment 107938
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Thanks @GaWx. ATL city and south metro are right on that line as well. Lotta folks (including me) gonna be white-knuckling it given the qpf.
 
iGRXY said:
RGEM ratios would be ridiculous with temps at the surface in the mid 20's and 850's and 925's roughly -3 to -5C
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Perhaps, though I’m always nervous to predict above 10:1 ratios around our region. It hardly ever happens, even when the conditions look promising.
 
griteater said:
Kind of shocked it produced that much precip with the wave running so far north, but hey, that works
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I can't recall an event where the upper low was so far removed from the surface low and produced that kind of precip. Can you?
 
I feel like what the NAM is showing might be more realistic, although that doesn't change much, it's ice ice baby in middle GA and SC.

Oof.

Maybe the short-range Canadian is on to something, and I end up with more sleet, because yeah...I dunno about the idea of ice.
 
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