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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Philconnors said:
I mean does anybody else see the similarities between this and 1/28/14


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I will say that while there are similarities, we are dealing with much more of a boom potential. That storm had a flat trough that had some energy ride along with it, while this one is reliant on the phase.
 
Philconnors said:
I mean does anybody else see the similarities between this and 1/28/14


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From a synoptic standpoint? Yeah, absolutely. Mesoscale details still need to be ironed out and very well may not be until showtime (if it ever arrives)

But...the cold push on this system doesn't appear to be as robust with the air being a bit more shallow.
 
Storm5 said:
Location matters. We had highs sub freezing in bama after that system . This time 40s . Massive difference . Not a great comparison IMO due to the highs that will follow this system


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I would bet that models won’t have a great handle on cold air. Granted, that was record cold for 3 days after. I think this has potential. It was very dry at the surface but mid layers are what made that snow so efficient .


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There is no “problem” it has trended to other guidance finally for the correct solution. The euro finally matches my thoughts from a couple of days ago. I think it could tick east if any, it’s a a little too high on the western sides.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
There is no “problem” it has trended to other guidance finally for the correct solution. The euro finally matches my thoughts from a couple of days ago. I think it could tick east if any, it’s a a little too high on the western sides.
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What exactly is the reasoning behind your thinking?
 
GFS has been all over this one, Euro caving, would not be surprised to see even more SE movement with the snow over the next 24-36 hrs, eastern half of NC looking good.

MBY has gone from nothing to 5" today on the Euro....folks from the Triangle east and north of 264 and maybe even 70 gonna get a damn decent hit....a few more bumps like that and someone ( cough Metwannabe cough ) might get a foot cause if anything the QPF is usually underdone in overrunning events, that plus deep cold give better than 10:1.
 
Ollie Williams said:
What exactly is the reasoning behind your thinking?
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It’s always been a late bloomer and those rarely if ever spit moisture back from the coast to the mountains. There’s always sharp gradients with these type of southern sliders that eject in a east north east flow. My reasoning was looking at all guidance not just the one or two that was showing heavy snow for Wilkes. There was plenty of guidance that was alarming for those out west but people were trying to say it will pop n/w like the last system. This is nothing similar to our last system in terms of direction/path and esp where the qpf develops. I could just say sky healing from the recent snow and it’s someone’s else’s turn to see snow (Raleigh) but I didn’t!
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s always been a late bloomer and those rarely if ever spit moisture back from the coast to the mountains. There’s always sharp gradients with these type of southern sliders that eject in a east north east flow. My reasoning was looking at all guidance not just the one or two that was showing heavy snow for Wilkes. There was plenty of guidance that was alarming for those out west but people were trying to say it will pop n/w like the last system. This is nothing similar to our last system in terms of direction/path and esp where the qpf develops. I could just say sky healing from the recent snow and it’s someone’s else’s turn to see snow (Raleigh) but I didn’t!
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The problem is, while it’s completely possible this heads SE, this setup while being a late bloomer is also overrunning driven by WAA/FGEN at the start, not just a late bloomer. these forcing agents typically result in more mixed precip and precip more NW then forecasted
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The problem is, while it’s completely possible this heads SE, this setup while being a late bloomer is also overrunning driven by WAA/FGEN at the start, not just a late bloomer. these forcing agents typically result in more mixed precip and precip more NW then forecasted
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Also what are the odds that this system starts going back NW around the 48 hour mark? I say likely it’s just a matter of how much
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s always been a late bloomer and those rarely if ever spit moisture back from the coast to the mountains. There’s always sharp gradients with these type of southern sliders that eject in a east north east flow. My reasoning was looking at all guidance not just the one or two that was showing heavy snow for Wilkes. There was plenty of guidance that was alarming for those out west but people were trying to say it will pop n/w like the last system. This is nothing similar to our last system in terms of direction/path and esp where the qpf develops. I could just say sky healing from the recent snow and it’s someone’s else’s turn to see snow (Raleigh) but I didn’t!
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Yes and the GFS has come back west with its low and the precip shield on the western side, and is not the only model seeing more precip expanding to the west. I actually agree that the triangle and points east and northeast will likely see the highest snowfall accumulation, but I also think there is a lot that screams for 3”+ snowfall back to the mountains, foothills and SC upstate…. Strong FGEN forcing and strong jet dynamics… it’s a very similar to what happened in the January 2002 storm… western area got a nice overunning event while eastern take advantage of the low gaining strength near the coast
 
Chazwin said:
Exactly… as many mets have noted.. there is nothing to prevent the last minute shift NW that we’ve all grown accustomed to
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Yeah I feel like every system we’ve had this year trended south until about 2 days before. Then it would start trending back north. This could be different but that’s been a theme this winter


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iGRXY said:
Also what are the odds that this system starts going back NW around the 48 hour mark? I say likely it’s just a matter of how much
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The NAM is hinting at it. If the euro was on board like it was yesterday id feel good about chances further west. The euro completely lost it but the gfs is now trying to go back west slowly which is good. If the 00z NAM looses it too than I think it’s time to move on from thinking this will be a major event for N GA and the upstate. Thermals look great we just need some stinking qpf to deal with. That’s never really been the problem for us recently.
 
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