Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[SnowNiner]

View attachment 107340
I am sure I am wishcasting here, but still am puzzled why 850s are that warm with a 1042 high over New York. I cannot remember ever seeing that before with such a huge difference with the cold surface and 925 temps.

And the low pressure doesn't seem that strong either, and it's off the coast. I guess it's going too neutral/negative too soon with the phase? With the phase modeled, I'm tossing and will wait to see ensembles. Euro smoking something.

 

[KyloG]

For the euro tho. Gfs is completely the opposite direction

GFS will fold like a cheap suit. It sucks at modeling the Atlantic ridge at this range. I think this is going to trend to a Miller b, primary up the apps and transfer over NC.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s not climo bro View attachment 107348View attachment 107349

Single digit dews into Greensboro. Early warning shots.

 

[jackendrickwx]

It’s not climo bro View attachment 107348View attachment 107349

Sleet

 

[mrdaddyman]

Are you kidding me? All freezing rain in Central NC with this track? It just doesn't want to snow SE of 64.

 

[Montanasnow30]

Looks like the same places are going to get another opportunity for wintry weather ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro 850 low track and temperatures

Regardless cold air is there whether it’s the surface or above and this system looks like it could be much more long duration vs the other one. Will bode not good for anyone who sees any type of ice or even snow build up for that long

 

[griteater]

View attachment 107340
I am sure I am wishcasting here, but still am puzzled why 850s are that warm with a 1042 high over New York. I cannot remember ever seeing that before with such a huge difference with the cold surface and 925 temps.

And the low pressure doesn't seem that strong either, and it's off the coast. I guess it's going too neutral/negative too soon with the phase? With the phase modeled, I'm tossing and will wait to see ensembles. Euro smoking something.

Yeah the mid levels don't care what's going on at the surface. This phases and goes negative tilt just a bit too early, and too far NW for southeastern side areas for snow

 

[KyloG]

Yeah the mid levels don't care what's going on at the surface. This phases and goes negative tilt just a bit too early, and too far NW for southeastern side areas for snow

Havent looked but 850 low probably running down southern NC?

 

[CaryWx]

Yeah the mid levels don't care what's going on at the surface. This phases and goes negative tilt just a bit too early, and too far NW for southeastern side areas for snow

Grit, but it doesn't pull the slp inland. Is it that pesky 850 you showed earlier doing that?

 

[Mitch West]

shallow Arctic air about to give folks an ice storm in the mid 20s. Thanks

 

[CaryWx]

Havent looked but 850 low probably running down southern NC?

Looks like the 850 tracks Atlanta, GSP, Charlotte, Rocky Mount, Norfolk

 

[WxGSO]

Any chance that both miss with just a sliver of the Far East being impacted? This is serious cold I see I believe there won’t be much moisture involved for most on the board.

Any chance that both miss with just a sliver of the Far East being impacted? This is serious cold I see I believe there won’t be much moisture involved for most on the board.

Don't think so...just because there is cold air, it's usually relatively low level, while copious amount of moisture can easily override the cold air mass.

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 107346

Close for some of us back west

For some our Mets. So what would it take to get this to cover out west?? And is this actually possible at this stage on the system??

 

[griteater]

Grit, but it doesn't pull the slp inland. Is it that pesky 850 you showed earlier doing that?

Yes, that's what I should have stated....the sfc low and mid level lows don't always line up how you want them to be in terms of temperatures aloft for snow. For RDU-CLT snow, we'd want that 850 low closer to the coast, but the 500mb wave evolution doesn't allow it

 

[Hypsometric]

Yeah the mid levels don't care what's going on at the surface. This phases and goes negative tilt just a bit too early, and too far NW for southeastern side areas for snow

This. A blend of the UKMET and Euro would be gold for the RDU to I-95 NC crowd IMO. That’s not an impossibility either.

 

[griteater]

This. A blend of the UKMET and Euro would be gold for the RDU to I-95 NC crowd IMO. That’s not an impossibility either.

Overall, a super blend of the op and ensemble runs right now gives us a winter storm in the SE...details to be ironed out

 

[KyloG]

Such big differences in Op runs at day 3-4. Usually you would blend them but I think Euro is likely right.

 

[BullCityWx]

Overall, a super blend of the op and ensemble runs right now gives us a winter storm in the SE...details to be ironed out

We’ll not be using logic around here, sir.

 

[CaryWx]

Yes, that's what I should have stated....the sfc low and mid level lows don't always line up how you want them to be in terms of temperatures aloft for snow. For RDU-CLT snow, we'd want that 850 low closer to the coast, but the 500mb wave evolution doesn't allow it

So my guess plot on that current 12z euro run modeled track for the 850 is about right?