Not throwing in with the euro just yet unless gfs and cmc move that way. Also tomorrow we should know the story more or less
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Chattownsnow
Member
Doesn’t the Euro have a bias of holding energy back in the southwest and the GFS a bias of being to progressive with s/w’s? It’s like there biased are roll reversed when comparing the models
griteater
Member
Personally, I much prefer the EURO over ANY model. I believe the GFS and it's new physics make it a much better model from previous years, but the EURO is still the go to model and is superior. Like Grit said, it looks like there is going to be another significant winter storm for the SE, but the details need to be ironed out.
Another In-situ CAD event ? so marginal it hurts
Lol wpc 
Stormlover
Member
Very much so. The track/and if it amps up more would do that.
When the EURO is honking, then you better listen. Of course, it would be nice to have the others on board, but they really aren't that far off from one another. Fun times, indeed.
This backs EXACTLY what I was saying earlier. Thanks for sharing.
They pretty much do with more snow than 0Z EPS as well as plentiful ice/sleet in some areas:
Snow portion 12Z EPS: big hit much of NC/VA/upstate SC/E TN!
What phase MJO are we in during this perceived hit? Wonder if our hot streak in good phases is supported through this solution
If you want less ice and more snow you need to have a less vigorous system, plain and simple. The EURO is amped, thus pumping a ton of moisture and warmer air over top the cold air mass.
I was thinking the exact same thing, actually. I don't really like the comparison due to the hyperbole aspect of it. That event was modeled to be a late bloomer off the coast. But the arctic boundary came through and helped create an unstable environment for an undermodeled thunderstorm complex moving eastward along the Gulf, which essentially ejected energy that infused with the developing coastal and developed it more rapidly and much farther inland than forecast.
When I saw that trailing wave rolling down south on one of the charts somebody posted above, I thought about 2000. Many of us would like to experience that kind of a surprise again, though our models are better now, and I don't know if it's possible to see that anymore.
NoSnowATL
Member
Hypsometric
Member
I also agree with this. If the euro was locked in with a stable solution that would be one thing, but there’s still large changes in the second wave timing that could throw off what it is currently showing. If anything, the CMC has probably been the most consistent over the past couple days and that’s pretty telling.
Based on best I can tell, likely inside the circle on the left side though the Euro disagrees. It hasn’t been doing well lately with the MJO, however.
Oh and I'm good with where the Euro is rn. Let that big goober do what it's going to do. It'll stumble on in eventually.
It's solution is possible but it's only one of many on the table. I'm glad we have quite a few still off to the east.
It's solution is possible but it's only one of many on the table. I'm glad we have quite a few still off to the east.
EPS looks great, slightly better then last run in fact by snow mean standards 
