This has probably already been posted but I'm just trying to figure out how to post a gif.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
I think the difference here is we’re not really dealing with a super amped up 980 mb storm .. this looks to be a very broad “weak” area of low pressure .. I would doubt a significant enough warm nose is able to penetrate through as many areas to make them all rain like this past event .. this event looks cold before during and after
SnowNiner
Member
I don't know, it still looks like a Miller A straight up to me, with a decent track. Just looks like it went negative too quick. EPS looks pretty classic Miller A.
follow the 850
Dang if this hasn't been the winter for northern, central and western Virginia the Euro pounds them with snow again if close to being correct.
Downeastnc
Member
This is encouraging they do pretty good reading the tea leaves over there...I been telling Shaggy we good for 6-12 this time around but he wont believe me cause he is the biggest negative nancy/debbie downer ever
We are seriously due for a good thump and while 12 is probably pushing it I could see parts of central and eastern NC easily hit 6" The models always struggle with over running events and which energy to key in on and they usually underdo the cold press etc....its that rare time we get late SE adjustments to the frozen/rain line....
MHX still honking the snow horn....
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
packfan98
Moderator
I’ll take this look. Hopefully we can keep this. It’s not like we have tons of time before we know.
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brendan123
Member
Pretty sure this has already been sent, but even though the 12z EPS has definitely shown a trend north with the 850's and precip, there wasn't much of a change on the snow mean from 6z and it actually shifted slightly further south. Still was about the same as today's 0z, but further north of all runs yesterday (where the main axis of snow was in Coastal NC). If the ensembles start ticking considerably north with the snow mean towards DC and really warm up 850's, I might start getting concerned.
The banter posts and one liners are getting out of hand already. Please post the crap here: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2021-22-fall-winter-whamby-thread.988/
Those even further east (like SE coast) might want what the inferior and often too far SE JMA is smoking for the first wave (mainly for entertainment as this model is pretty bad and this is an outlier so far SE):
Track of surface low is significantly further SE than the better models with a track from east central GOM ENE over C FL and then well out into the Atlantic. This track would be near ideal for coastal areas as well as somewhat inland:
Liquid equivalent for just the 24 hour period ending at hour 120 is ~1” for upper GA to NC coast. I calculated that by taking 120 hour cumulative and subtracting hour 96 cumulative. Here’s hour 120 cumulative:
850s on coast are +6 C SAV to 0C NC OB near the start of the heaviest precip. at hour 96 but all cool to below 0C by hour 120. So, all of that tells me a major snow is on this model for places like Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Florence, Charlotte, Fayetteville, RDU, and most of E NC and a ZR to IP to SN for much of E SC/SE GA with the most ZR/IP closer to the SC/upper GA coast:
But again, this model is an outlier, pretty bad, and often too far SE.
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Shaggy
Member
I am.not a Debbie downer I am a realist. With that being said we probably ice with this one. If the 850 tracks like the euro shows there zero chance we miss a warm nose. We can't have a 850 track west of us and expect snow period.This is encouraging they do pretty good reading the tea leaves over there...I been telling Shaggy we good for 6-12 this time around but he wont believe me cause he is the biggest negative nancy/debbie downer ever
We are seriously due for a good thump and while 12 is probably pushing it I could see parts of central and eastern NC easily hit 6" The models always struggle with over running events and which energy to key in on and they usually underdo the cold press etc....its that rare time we get late SE adjustments to the frozen/rain line....
MHX still honking the snow horn....
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
SnowNiner
Member
East west orientation in the ensemble means looks great. I'd like the GEFS to trend to this. Looks like WPC expects this as well. ?
I think, just as important as what yall are saying, maybe more? If we don't get the front down far enough on the initial wave and push down the high and into CAD, then forget snow (outside of mtns) and get ready for rain or ice.
Obviously I know it’s the Japanese model and it’s track record, but that’s surprising to see that low track and that much moisture back towards CLT… typically a low track that far south keeps the moisture pretty far south and east… like the December 1989 Christmas storm
FFC definitely on alert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
We're in the midst of a very progressive wave train, and that will
remain true in the extended, with global models in good agreement
that a cold front will slip into northwest Georgia beginning late
Wednesday evening. Because best moisture is coincident with
temperatures below freezing as the cold airmass settles in, chances
for a wintry mix of precipitation filter in on the backside of the
front.
The jury is out on what becomes of the front beyond Thursday, with
the only real consensus being that it looks like there is the
potential for another winter weather event this weekend. Best guess
is that each solution has difficulty resolving the interplay between
warm, moist advection off the Gulf and the wedge.
Run-to-run consistency has been poor. GFS has showed a steady signal
of wintry precip, but has wavered on where and when (so... the keys
to the forecast). 06 and 12Z GFS runs develop a surface closed low
that treks along the Gulf coast, but the 12Z run is much more
bullish with FZRA accum. in central Georgia and kicks off
precipitation Saturday morning vs. Saturday afternoon. Euro has
(finally) started to show some consistency with itself, in that
the 00Z and 12Z runs both show the front and residual moisture
axis stalling along the coast and then being reinforced by a
digging upper-level shortwave that cuts across the Tennessee
Valley. 12Z run socks in the I-20 corridor with freezing rain
while far northern Georgia is predominantly snow.
With two incredibly divergent outlooks for the weekend and upper-
patterns that are out of phase, will keep mention of snow and a
rain/snow mix in the grids, didn't try to get cute with any other
mixed phase precip in the forecast. If icier solutions pan out, this
could become a high impact event, but we need more than 2 successive
runs with consensus to take a hard stance. Stay tuned.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
We're in the midst of a very progressive wave train, and that will
remain true in the extended, with global models in good agreement
that a cold front will slip into northwest Georgia beginning late
Wednesday evening. Because best moisture is coincident with
temperatures below freezing as the cold airmass settles in, chances
for a wintry mix of precipitation filter in on the backside of the
front.
The jury is out on what becomes of the front beyond Thursday, with
the only real consensus being that it looks like there is the
potential for another winter weather event this weekend. Best guess
is that each solution has difficulty resolving the interplay between
warm, moist advection off the Gulf and the wedge.
Run-to-run consistency has been poor. GFS has showed a steady signal
of wintry precip, but has wavered on where and when (so... the keys
to the forecast). 06 and 12Z GFS runs develop a surface closed low
that treks along the Gulf coast, but the 12Z run is much more
bullish with FZRA accum. in central Georgia and kicks off
precipitation Saturday morning vs. Saturday afternoon. Euro has
(finally) started to show some consistency with itself, in that
the 00Z and 12Z runs both show the front and residual moisture
axis stalling along the coast and then being reinforced by a
digging upper-level shortwave that cuts across the Tennessee
Valley. 12Z run socks in the I-20 corridor with freezing rain
while far northern Georgia is predominantly snow.
With two incredibly divergent outlooks for the weekend and upper-
patterns that are out of phase, will keep mention of snow and a
rain/snow mix in the grids, didn't try to get cute with any other
mixed phase precip in the forecast. If icier solutions pan out, this
could become a high impact event, but we need more than 2 successive
runs with consensus to take a hard stance. Stay tuned.
The fact is we are gonna be rooting against each other here. What was a very deep cold event, now looks like those rooting for and against an early phase. We need the earlier phase to drag down colder air and those in the East need a later phase to not NW trend them to death.
njbarrineau
Member
GSP Afternoon Disco
The models also start disagreeing with the timing of an incoming h5
s/w trof and it`s interaction with the frontal zone Fri thru the
weekend. The GFS soln is faster and has little sfc wave development
along the front, thus less moist adv into the region and much less
chance of wintry precip reaching the FA. The ECMWF and the CMC on
the other hand indicate a slower progression of the upper trof and
more time for a sfc wave to develop and bring a good amt of deep
layered moisture into the area. If this scenario pans out, the
generated precip would interact with a a cold and dry sfc layer,
which would support a period of wintry mix then mostly snow across
most of the FA. Still much uncertainty exists with this system and
the models have been going back and forth on these solns.
Additionally, the GEFS members dont provide a good clue on the
pattern one way or the other. More than half the perturbations
indicate no good chance precip reaching the area and the others are
mostly skimpy on wintry precip amts. Thus, low-end to nil PoPs will
continue to advertised for now with this weekend system.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The models also start disagreeing with the timing of an incoming h5
s/w trof and it`s interaction with the frontal zone Fri thru the
weekend. The GFS soln is faster and has little sfc wave development
along the front, thus less moist adv into the region and much less
chance of wintry precip reaching the FA. The ECMWF and the CMC on
the other hand indicate a slower progression of the upper trof and
more time for a sfc wave to develop and bring a good amt of deep
layered moisture into the area. If this scenario pans out, the
generated precip would interact with a a cold and dry sfc layer,
which would support a period of wintry mix then mostly snow across
most of the FA. Still much uncertainty exists with this system and
the models have been going back and forth on these solns.
Additionally, the GEFS members dont provide a good clue on the
pattern one way or the other. More than half the perturbations
indicate no good chance precip reaching the area and the others are
mostly skimpy on wintry precip amts. Thus, low-end to nil PoPs will
continue to advertised for now with this weekend system.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good point although every situation is different. I calculated for just hour 96 to 120, liquid equivalent of ~0.25” at Charlotte/RDU, 0.35” at Macon, 0.45” at Augusta and Columbia, and 0.75” at Florence. All of these would be for nearly pure snow.
ya, you are right...lol Honestly lets just get a deep cold air mass for everyone. LOL You are right tho, what prob works for you won't for me. It could if we went back to the earlier shown models.
So FWIW, SREF mean has up to an inch painted from Winston to the NC/VA line on 85.