• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

BullCityWx said:
Up here, we’d back slide from RN to ZR to IP to SN which is highly unusual.
Click to expand...
For the frontal passage you would but the key thing here is that surface wave that's going to jog along the front right after. At least the NAM not pre-amping it like the euro was at 84hrs---At least I do not think so.
 
NAM is quite warmer than the GFS at hr84. It's the long range nam but still
namconus_T2m_seus_53.png

gfs_T2m_seus_16.png
 
Even with the stream separation looks, there’s not much to worry about given that favors a weak overrunning setup, as the nam shows, mesoscale factors would be in our favor since WAA is responsible for the precip itself and almost always ends up stronger then modeled in overrunning scenarios, which naturally means precip will be further NW then modeled naturally
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even with the stream separation looks, there’s not much to worry about given that favors a weak overrunning setup, as the nam shows, mesoscale factors would be in our favor since WAA is responsible for the precip itself and almost always ends up stronger then modeled in overrunning scenarios
Click to expand...
In your opinion, what are we really pulling for trend wise on the NAM and Euro. Euro to flatten a bit to the sw and nam to amp a little more with the NS?
 
The jury is out on what becomes of the front beyond Thursday, with
the only real consensus being that it looks like there is the
potential for another winter weather event this weekend. Best guess
is that each solution has difficulty resolving the interplay between
warm, moist advection off the Gulf and the wedge.

Run-to-run consistency has been poor. GFS has showed a steady signal
of wintry precip, but has wavered on where and when (so... the keys
to the forecast). 06 and 12Z GFS runs develop a surface closed low
that treks along the Gulf coast, but the 12Z run is much more
bullish with FZRA accum. in central Georgia and kicks off
precipitation Saturday morning vs. Saturday afternoon. Euro has
(finally) started to show some consistency with itself, in that
the 00Z and 12Z runs both show the front and residual moisture
axis stalling along the coast and then being reinforced by a
digging upper-level shortwave that cuts across the Tennessee
Valley. 12Z run socks in the I-20 corridor with freezing rain
while far northern Georgia is predominantly snow.

With two incredibly divergent outlooks for the weekend and upper-
patterns that are out of phase, will keep mention of snow and a
rain/snow mix in the grids, didn't try to get cute with any other
mixed phase precip in the forecast. If icier solutions pan out, this
could become a high impact event, but we need more than 2 successive
runs with consensus to take a hard stance. Stay tuned.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
In your opinion, what are we really pulling for trend wise on the NAM and Euro. Euro to flatten a bit to the sw and nam to amp a little more with the NS?
Click to expand...
Something like the CMC honestly I like, even tho it’s QPF amounts is particularly not the best, I like where the energy is on it, maybe slightly more interaction then that but I mean just a little bit, for a mostly snow event for us
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top