Need that high pressure center farther south. Otherwise, mixing for a lot of people.ICON:
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
griteater
Member
Couple trends to watch are: 1) the northern stream progression thru the Dakotas, and 2) the upstream wave dropping down into the Great Basin.
The EPS (1st loop) isn't as progressive (not as quick) with the trailing wave tracking in the northern stream thru the Dakotas, and it is dropping that upstream wave farther west thru the Great Basin compared to the GEFS (2nd loop).
The net of it is that the the EPS has more spacing / more room to breathe and allow the wave amplification to occur thru the central U.S. and move the wave from positive tilt to neutral tilt quicker
The EPS (1st loop) isn't as progressive (not as quick) with the trailing wave tracking in the northern stream thru the Dakotas, and it is dropping that upstream wave farther west thru the Great Basin compared to the GEFS (2nd loop).
The net of it is that the the EPS has more spacing / more room to breathe and allow the wave amplification to occur thru the central U.S. and move the wave from positive tilt to neutral tilt quicker
Stormlover
Member
from the CPC:
US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022
Valid Thursday January 20 2022 - Monday January 24 2022
Hazards:
- Heavy snow across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the
Central Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Sat, Jan 20-Jan 22.
- Freezing rain across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and
the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Sat, Jan 20-Jan 22.
US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022
Valid Thursday January 20 2022 - Monday January 24 2022
Hazards:
- Heavy snow across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the
Central Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Sat, Jan 20-Jan 22.
- Freezing rain across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and
the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Sat, Jan 20-Jan 22.
ICON snowfall map:
Ugh, this is headed towards another slop fest. If there’s one thing positive about this, the damming is staying put, clear trend on the icon to another highly impactful winter storm 
Based off what historical has been known about ICON and its output during last system you have to question its temp profiles it does run a little hotter then most
As of now*** This is how I see the potential for the SE. I think most areas don't get anything from the front moving through except maybe the Carolinas. I think the 2nd wave coming has the most potential......B U T***** we need a good solid press south with the cold push. Has the 2 push through the front good enough.
From RAH:
Forecast confidence then decreases during the late week-early next
week time frame, as strong and at least briefly blocking ridging
develops and expands nwd along and just offshore the West Coast. The
geometry of downstream troughing over the ern US, dictated by
individual shortwaves and their potential interaction/phasing, is of
lower predictability and will be important for how they may interact
with the strong baroclinic zone related an Arctic air mass over much
of the nrn and and ern US, and warm/unstable conditions from the GOM
to the swrn N. Atlantic and Gulf Stream. That baroclinic zone will
result from the wavy Arctic front forecast to cross the Carolinas
Thu night, then become quasi-stationary from the wrn Atlantic to the
Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the forecast period, and one
where both isentropic lift and cyclogenesis may become energized by
the aforementioned low predictability shortwave troughs aloft.
There, precipitation --including wintry on the poleward side-- will
be possible, including near or just southeast of cntl NC. The most
likely time of that occurrence in cntl NC appears to be late Thu
night and Fri, but those details and the sensible weather impacts,
with the threat of precipitation spreading nwd into the Arctic air,
remain highly uncertain - but a possibility worth monitoring as
those details are hopefully resolved during the coming days.
&&
--I sure hope the details are resolved in the coming days; the storm will be here in the coming days...
Forecast confidence then decreases during the late week-early next
week time frame, as strong and at least briefly blocking ridging
develops and expands nwd along and just offshore the West Coast. The
geometry of downstream troughing over the ern US, dictated by
individual shortwaves and their potential interaction/phasing, is of
lower predictability and will be important for how they may interact
with the strong baroclinic zone related an Arctic air mass over much
of the nrn and and ern US, and warm/unstable conditions from the GOM
to the swrn N. Atlantic and Gulf Stream. That baroclinic zone will
result from the wavy Arctic front forecast to cross the Carolinas
Thu night, then become quasi-stationary from the wrn Atlantic to the
Gulf of Mexico through the remainder of the forecast period, and one
where both isentropic lift and cyclogenesis may become energized by
the aforementioned low predictability shortwave troughs aloft.
There, precipitation --including wintry on the poleward side-- will
be possible, including near or just southeast of cntl NC. The most
likely time of that occurrence in cntl NC appears to be late Thu
night and Fri, but those details and the sensible weather impacts,
with the threat of precipitation spreading nwd into the Arctic air,
remain highly uncertain - but a possibility worth monitoring as
those details are hopefully resolved during the coming days.
&&
--I sure hope the details are resolved in the coming days; the storm will be here in the coming days...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The issues here however are...
1. The Euro may be closer to the right depiction on the Western Atlantic Ridge, which has been trending west (although I will say that while I noted a slight shift west in the GFS, it didn't make a difference in the temps...maybe yet?). It'll make it a slop fest for some areas.
2. Like Delta just noted, how far does the cold front on Thursday get? Need a good push from it.
Stormlover
Member
The CPC has freezing rain and sleet from Georgia to the Carolinas late this week and heavy snow from north Georgia northeast
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Yeah that seems like a strong high, but interestingly that map does not show much of a cold push; almost looks like a bit of an SER
That's largely unchanged language from yesterday
85 and north special lol
brendan123
Member
Wakefield is all in
Nice from the Icon; while there is ice around.. it's looking similar surface temperature wise that could save areas from the majority of the ice down into SC/GA. It's the Icon though.. it has been known to be too warm in the longer-range.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I do think it very well could end up being an I-40 north special tbh. But maybe the models are going to try and agree on one solution
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CAE is all in on Snow Thursday night through Saturday; but we are seeing how that's ending up now aren't we?
Actually, for the N. Georgia CAD areas, the ICON was a little too cold with its surface temps right up until verification. The NAM was close. The GFS too warm. Again, speaking of N. Georgia only but since that was what I was keyed in on.