Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Chattownsnow]

Look no further than this weak wave overrunning system coming first. The differences from hr60 to the same time from at hr120 on the GFS tells you all you need to know about how it’s handling these systems. The precip shield has gone from just barely as west as Chattanooga TN( to now being depicted all the way to Paducah KY. Obviously changes in timing have an effect as well but you can also see the 850c line trending NW more each run as well

 

[GaWx]

Per 18Z GFS, look in the W GOM. The 2nd wave’s surface low is forming further south. Could mean a colder/further offshore 2nd wave’s low when offshore the SE, similar to what a bunch of 12Z GEFS members as well as the JMA were doing. Let’s see what actually happens!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This might be the start of something, and I mean with that strung out southern stream ----

 

[Rain Cold]

Per 18Z GFS, look in the W GOM. The 2nd wave’s surface low is forming further south. Could mean a colder/further offshore 2nd wave’s low when offshore the SE, similar to what a bunch of 12Z GEFS members as well as the JMA were doing. Let’s see what actually happens!

View attachment 107439

It's just a can kick. Whichever one forms the storm seems destined to amplify. Will it still be solidly cold by the time the second one rolls through or will we be dealing with marginal cold by then?

 

[GaWx]

Oh boy!! What will happen?!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like the beginning of a fold

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Warner Robins is getting obliterated again

 

[Storm5]

Man that second wave is gonna be the real deal for some . I'm pulling for a massive phase that yanks NW personally


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Looks like the beginning of a fold View attachment 107444

GFS been so good you had to think it’s streak was drawing nigh.

 

[GaWx]

Colder for sure!

 

[Jessy89]

Any actually believe the low stays that far off the coast?


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[Snowfan]

 

[GaWx]

Yep, further south with the ice well south in inland GA.

 

[KyloG]

This is a day 3 modeling difference. I can’t recall such a big difference in the Euro/GFs at this range.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[GaWx]

Snow max, though lower, is further south, esp in SC:

 

[$alt]

This is a day 3 modeling difference. I can’t recall such a big difference in the Euro/GFs at this range.

View attachment 107448

You'd expect the euro to be holding the wave back there over the other guidance.

 

[brendan123]

How did the Canadian perform for this past system? Right now it seems like the middle ground for the Euro and GFS for the late-week system, but I don't know if its solution really holds any value.

 

[rburrel2]

View attachment 107423
RGEM looks very similar to the NAM

RGEM looks nothing like the NAM at 500mb. It actually looks just like the Euro and would be a big hit for western area's if extrapolated out.

 

[accu35]

This is real close in south Al, couple degrees lower would cause lot of problems for sure.