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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

@Shaggy @Downeast..
No doubt..
From KILM 30 miles to My south.
-------------------
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Freezing rain is looking increasingly likely on Friday. And although
there is still considerable model differences regarding ice amounts,
some guidance show that there is at least the possibility of a
damaging ice storm here along the coast.

The setup is a classic one with cold air being re-enforced at the surface as high pressure
noses in while a warm nose aloft associated with low pressure
developing offshore overrun the wedge.
The warm nose grows so strong in fact that the immediate coast gets above freezing even in the
normally reliable blended thickness output. This will act to decrease ice accums in an already uncertain forecast (models often
seem to underestimate the strength of the cold wedge).
Even should this occur a change back to freezing rain is expected area-wide later in the afternoon as the deepening low passes by. Later Friday, night as the cold air deepens some sleet or snow may mix in but, the deep layer moisture will be waning fast. The dominant ptype still appears to be freezing rain through most of the event. Saturday highs will be above freezing possibly allowing for some ice melt but there may also be a good setup for black ice Saturday night as lows tumble into the 20s. The end of the period will be rain-free but will see a continuation of below normal temperatures.
 
SENC said:
@Shaggy @Downeast..
No doubt..
From KILM 30 miles to My south.
-------------------
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Freezing rain is looking increasingly likely on Friday. And although
there is still considerable model differences regarding ice amounts,
some guidance show that there is at least the possibility of a
damaging ice storm here along the coast.

The setup is a classic one with cold air being re-enforced at the surface as high pressure
noses in while a warm nose aloft associated with low pressure
developing offshore overrun the wedge.
The warm nose grows so strong in fact that the immediate coast gets above freezing even in the
normally reliable blended thickness output. This will act to decrease ice accums in an already uncertain forecast (models often
seem to underestimate the strength of the cold wedge).
Even should this occur a change back to freezing rain is expected area-wide later in the afternoon as the deepening low passes by. Later Friday, night as the cold air deepens some sleet or snow may mix in but, the deep layer moisture will be waning fast. The dominant ptype still appears to be freezing rain through most of the event. Saturday highs will be above freezing possibly allowing for some ice melt but there may also be a good setup for black ice Saturday night as lows tumble into the 20s. The end of the period will be rain-free but will see a continuation of below normal temperatures.
Click to expand...
As much as we all weather you are gonna want to go above freezing like they suggest because if not then you will see a damaging ice storm for sure. I'd hate to be east of highway 17 and south of 70 for this one.
 
Here's RAH's discussion:
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Winter Storm Watch Thursday Evening through Saturday Morning for
Accumulating Snow, Sleet and Freezing Rain.

Fri to Fri night: The Arctic air will continue to filter into
central NC Friday as the surface high, which is two standard
deviations above normal, builds into southern Ontario. Strong cold
air damming will linger across the region through Saturday as the
surface high builds across the Northeast. Just off the NC coast, a
surface low will develop along a stalled front, and move northeast
away from the region by late Friday night. The surface low will be
enhanced by a vigorous upper-level trough digging across the region
on Friday. Models are coming into better agreement in the details,
and a Miller A-type storm is looking more likely. Friday will be a
very cold day, with highs in the 20s for most areas, and low 30s for
the far SE. Looking at forecast soundings, the southern half of the
region may have a slight warm nose, which would generate areas of
sleet, and the far SE would likely be warm enough along the column
for mostly freezing rain. The southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills
could have 0.10 to 0.30" of ice, with the highest amounts across
southern Sampson County. A hundredth or two of ice could accumulate
as far north as the Triangle, however mostly snow and sleet is
currently expected across these areas, with only snow falling over,
north and northwest of the Triangle. Snowfall amounts will vary from
3 to 5 inches across the northern Coastal Plain to 2 to 3 inches
across the southern Piedmont. Ice and snowfall amounts will likely
change in the next two days as models come in even better agreement.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for all areas across central
NC, for the expected wintry precipitation. Temperatures will plummet
again Friday night, dipping into the teens north to mid-20s south.

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HurricaneSolomon said:
Winter Storm Watch now in effect for most of central NC. In fact I believe there are watches at the coast and into southeastern SC also.


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Calling for wintry precip for a period of almost 24-30 hours and i get around 3 inches of sleet and snow? Yeah id expect totals to go up tomorrow
 
Shaggy said:
Calling for wintry precip for a period of almost 24-30 hours and i get around 3 inches of sleet and snow? Yeah id expect totals to go up tomorrow
Click to expand...
They're conservative and will step towards the higher amounts as long as the models hold true.
 
Shaggy said:
Calling for wintry precip for a period of almost 24-30 hours and i get around 3 inches of sleet and snow? Yeah id expect totals to go up tomorrow
Click to expand...

I agree. For central NC they are saying 2-5 inches of snow but like you said I’d imagine that they will update as we get closer. As cold as it will be if there are any heavy bursts the snow will accumulate at a rapid pace.


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Another question for this event is the first wave. The GFS has been leading the way to show a period of mixed precip over central NC turinh Thursday night. The HRRR and RAP are showing this solution.
From RAH (not the main event):

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

A succession of northern stream energy diving south out of Canada
will lead to the development of a vigorous positively-tilted trough
over the central and eastern US. This eastward advancement of this
trough will push the aforementioned Arctic cold front and
accompanying band of rain shower ESE through central NC by the late
afternoon. Quick on the heels of the frontal passage, an expansive
~1040mb surface high centered over the mid/upper MS Valley will
build into the NE and mid-Atlantic regions, resulting in strong low-
level cold air dry advection. Temperatures will crash from north to
south during the afternoon and evening. While the strongest forcing
and deepest moisture moisture shifts east towards the coast, INVOF
the stalling offshore frontal zone, continued isentropic lift fueled
by weak southern stream s/w disturbances, coupled with H8
convergence along the H8 cold front forecast to stall out over
interior NC, will support a continuation of light precip during the
evening and overnight hours.

The collapse of low-level thermals underneath more modest mid/upper
level cooling will support a north-south transition to mixed p-types
during the evening, with dominate p-type eventually becoming all
snow across the northern two -thirds of the forecast area by
daybreak via an impressive -6 to -9c cold nose. The biggest question
is just how much moist/liquid QPF will be available, especially the
more removed you are from the coast. Expect to see light
accumulation of snow of a dusting to 1 inch across northern and
central NC, with very light icing(trace to several hundredths) from
freezing rain across the south counties. The higher amounts and
greatest impacts are not expected to get underway until Friday
afternoon.
 
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Carolinas.

4aa59cf090f6aedf00d6a0e49dc74d76.jpg



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GFS is on an island just like it was 24-72 hours out leading up to the last storm with being to warm. It’s an outliner. HRRR going to deliver the boom later.
 
packfan98 said:
6z GEFS follows the op and really cuts down on totals and areas that get snow. Yuck.
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Good haha. Really not too worried about GFS being more suppressed right now, that's better than continuing too amped. Now at 12z if the NAM and RGEM start coming in flatter and more suppressed then I'll take notice but still wouldn't be too concerned.
 
NCSNOW said:
Im Rooting for the more northern dig thats been showing on the hi res models since 18z last night. Best way to get a notch of amp.
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Me too! I'll be happy to just see some snow fall and maybe a little dust up although things could still trend a better for a lot of folks, doubt it does here but I don't give up until last minute and it's fast approaching. lol I'm glad you guys are still in the game good luck!
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Me too! I'll be happy to just see some snow fall and maybe a little dust up although things could still trend a better for a lot of folks, doubt it does here but I don't give up until last minute and it's fast approaching. lol I'm glad you guys are still in the game good luck!
Click to expand...
You know you’re gonna find a way, don’t play with us ??
 
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