Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[GaWx]

2nd wave surface low mean on 18Z GEFS is further south weaker vs 12Z GEFS:




Will this, assuming it doesn’t disappear/weaken more in later runs, come back NW later?

In the meantime, does anyone have the 18Z GEFS member precip panels for this second wave, alone? (Especially hours 120-150 or so)

 

[accu35]

Anyone have the CMC? TT doesn’t have it

 

[deltadog03]

Well….. wow if that is right! Anyone from FFC post in here? Just curious. PM me please

 

[Chazwin]

With the wide spread in these models, one thing is for sure… local mets and the staffs at the NWS Field Offices in the Carolinas are gonna earn their pay this week. This is gonna be a deal where they are just gonna have to rely heavily on upstream observations to get a feel of the end result

 

[Myfrotho704_]

12z > 18z CMC run to run change

 

[Meteorologist1999]

12z > 18z CMC run to run change View attachment 107473

What does it shows?

 

[Snowfan]

What does it shows?

CMC is holding the energy back less.

 

[Mitch West]

What does it shows?

Looks like it brings that Southern energy in a little more (better for a storm)

 

[KyloG]

All the foreign models show big events…KMA was a big hit. GFS going to fold soon…?

 

[wxdaniel]

Can someone explain what a meso high is and if it's more conducive to form where there is a higher snow pack? Also, can this allow more IP vs. ZR if it forms? The Euro puts a high in VA which would be the location I would expect to see such a feature.

View attachment 107461

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[Myfrotho704_]

GFS is gonna fold I can smell it from a mile away, I’m almost convinced the Carolinas/lower MA/other parts of the SE is gonna see a winter storm

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[iGRXY]

GFS is gonna fold I can smell it from a mile away, I’m almost convinced the Carolinas/lower MA/other parts of the SE is gonna see a winter storm

I still say this trends to an 85 special for snow and I20 for ice.

 

[Snownut]

I still say this trends to an 85 special for snow and I20 for ice.

I agree those southern sliders like that almost Always trends to that

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[SnowNiner]

All the foreign models show big events…KMA was a big hit. GFS going to fold soon…?

View attachment 107474

GFS is gonna fold I can smell it from a mile away, I’m almost convinced the Carolinas/lower MA/other parts of the SE is gonna see a winter storm

Well, this is Merica. Im going with the Ford F150 of weather models. lol. I'm going to go againt the grain here. GFS was the first to see amplification of the yesterday's storm, and the gfs ensembles really don't see much of anything yet. And the phase and timing of the Euro is very hard for me to believe. I'm going to lean toward a cold whiff until the gefs beefs up.

 

[NCSNOW]

GFS is gonna fold I can smell it from a mile away, I’m almost convinced the Carolinas/lower MA/other parts of the SE is gonna see a winter storm

It always folds. Lose count of the times its by itself against rest of world. Last storms Western KY runs day 3-5 range prime example.

 

[BHS1975]

It always folds. Lose count of the times its by itself against rest of world. Last storms Western KY runs day 3-5 range prime example.

Yeap Euro still king.


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[BHS1975]

Well, this is Merica. Im going with the Ford F150 of weather models. lol. I'm going to go againt the grain here. GFS was the first to see amplification of the yesterday's storm, and the gfs ensembles really don't see much of anything yet. And the phase and timing of the Euro is very hard for me to believe. I'm going to lean toward a cold whiff until the gefs beefs up.

More like the Ford Fiesta.


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[Showmeyourtds]

Well….. wow if that is right! Anyone from FFC post in here? Just curious. PM me please

I don't work for FFC, but I may or may not have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

The FRZ RN depiction on pivotal almost maxed out the color scale with some amounts approaching 2 inches. Does that even seem like a realistic outcome down that way?

 

[Rain Cold]

It always folds. Lose count of the times its by itself against rest of world. Last storms Western KY runs day 3-5 range prime example.

Bruh, were you here like 5 days ago? lol