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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Showmeyourtds said:
I don't work for FFC, but I may or may not have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

The FRZ RN depiction on pivotal almost maxed out the color scale with some amounts approaching 2 inches. Does that even seem like a realistic outcome down that way?
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Models always suck at depicting ZR. They had me at .8 in, and I stayed sleet the entire event.
 
If mixed precip is being modeled the only way to know if you’re likely getting sleet or ZR is to check the soundings for each panel. Models always show sleet as ZR and spit out ridiculous outputs. If you go look at the soundings, most of the time the warm nose is not very big or is not very deep. Couple that with CAD is under modeled and the lower level cold is always colder than modeled. Really the best place to get ZR is the closer you get to the coast where if it is cold enough for wintery precip it’s usually at the surface as they’re closer to the LP. That’s why if I see ZR getting spit out along and east of I95 I pay more attention to that.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
I don't work for FFC, but I may or may not have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

The FRZ RN depiction on pivotal almost maxed out the color scale with some amounts approaching 2 inches. Does that even seem like a realistic outcome down that way?
Click to expand...
I can imagine having that much FZRA, that would be terrible. I’m guessing it would be something else as well.
 
Wakefield sounding less and less conservative. Keep in mind, tomorrow evening, at least SE Virginia will be within the 48 hr Winter Storm Watch window if winter precip starts falling Thursday evening associated with the front...

"Arctic high pressure will be centered over southeast Canada and
northern New England/NY Friday. Cold air will be moving into the
region following the passage of the cold front on Thursday. The
cold front will likely stall along the Carolina coast Friday and
into Saturday. This will set up the potential for a low
pressure system to track just southeast of the area this
weekend, and keep in chances for light snow near the front
Thursday night into Friday across far southeast VA and inland
areas of northeast NC. Precip could change over to all snow as
far southeast as the northern Outer Banks Thursday night into
Friday morning. There is high confidence that very cold air will
be in place Friday ahead of this potential winter storm. Low
temperatures Friday morning will be in the teens inland and 20s
along the coast. Cold air will still be moving into the area
during the day on Friday with a north wind. High temperatures on
Friday are expected to be in the mid and upper 20s inland and
around 30F along the coast. Cold air combined with the northerly
wind could result in wind chill starting in the single digits
Friday morning and only rising to the teen Friday afternoon.

Low pressure begins to form over the northeast Gulf of Mexico
Friday. Southwest flow aloft will bring moisture north, well
ahead of the center of low pressure. Snow could over spread the
area late Friday through Saturday. There is low confidence in
how much moisture comes back north into the region as the low
pressure moves up the coast, but there is high confidence that
the cold air will be in place. So if precip fall, it will likely
be mostly snow, with some mixing near the VA/NC coasts. This
storm has the potential to be a high impact event. ECMWF
probabilities show a 50-60% chance of at least 3" of snow
accumulation for all of our forecast area Friday night into
Saturday morning. ECMWF probs show also show 30-40%
probabilities of at least 6" of snow accumulation for Hampton
Roads, with less than 30% probability for the remainder of the
area. This snow will be falling into sfc temperatures that are
in the low to mid 20s. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with
showing widespread heavy snow accumulations across the area. GFS
show less of a threat with most of the precip along the NC
coast and across Hampton Roads. While the Canadian is in
between. However, the latest runs of the GFS have trended the
system northwest, coming in closer with the ECMWF."
 
GaWx said:
2nd wave surface low mean on 18Z GEFS is further south weaker vs 12Z GEFS:

View attachment 107469View attachment 107470
View attachment 107471

Will this, assuming it doesn’t disappear/weaken more in later runs, come back NW later?

In the meantime, does anyone have the 18Z GEFS member precip panels for this second wave, alone? (Especially hours 120-150 or so)
Click to expand...

Bump, anyone have the 18Z GEFS member wintry precip panels for hours 120+? (Second shortwave) Thanks.
 
brendan123 said:
Wakefield sounding less and less conservative. Keep in mind, tomorrow evening, at least SE Virginia will be within the 48 hr Winter Storm Watch window if winter precip starts falling Thursday evening associated with the front...

"Arctic high pressure will be centered over southeast Canada and
northern New England/NY Friday. Cold air will be moving into the
region following the passage of the cold front on Thursday. The
cold front will likely stall along the Carolina coast Friday and
into Saturday. This will set up the potential for a low
pressure system to track just southeast of the area this
weekend, and keep in chances for light snow near the front
Thursday night into Friday across far southeast VA and inland
areas of northeast NC. Precip could change over to all snow as
far southeast as the northern Outer Banks Thursday night into
Friday morning. There is high confidence that very cold air will
be in place Friday ahead of this potential winter storm. Low
temperatures Friday morning will be in the teens inland and 20s
along the coast. Cold air will still be moving into the area
during the day on Friday with a north wind. High temperatures on
Friday are expected to be in the mid and upper 20s inland and
around 30F along the coast. Cold air combined with the northerly
wind could result in wind chill starting in the single digits
Friday morning and only rising to the teen Friday afternoon.

Low pressure begins to form over the northeast Gulf of Mexico
Friday. Southwest flow aloft will bring moisture north, well
ahead of the center of low pressure. Snow could over spread the
area late Friday through Saturday. There is low confidence in
how much moisture comes back north into the region as the low
pressure moves up the coast, but there is high confidence that
the cold air will be in place. So if precip fall, it will likely
be mostly snow, with some mixing near the VA/NC coasts. This
storm has the potential to be a high impact event. ECMWF
probabilities show a 50-60% chance of at least 3" of snow
accumulation for all of our forecast area Friday night into
Saturday morning. ECMWF probs show also show 30-40%
probabilities of at least 6" of snow accumulation for Hampton
Roads, with less than 30% probability for the remainder of the
area. This snow will be falling into sfc temperatures that are
in the low to mid 20s. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with
showing widespread heavy snow accumulations across the area. GFS
show less of a threat with most of the precip along the NC
coast and across Hampton Roads. While the Canadian is in
between. However, the latest runs of the GFS have trended the
system northwest, coming in closer with the ECMWF."
Click to expand...
You mentioned something that is another thing about these crazy differences on the models. The field offices in GA, the Carolinas, and VA have to start deciding during the overnight shift tomorrow night about issuing Winter Storm Watches.
 
The northern stream piece is also west of the gfs position as well. Northern stream being more progressive on the gfs is one thing prevent a phase scenario on that model.


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Chazwin said:
You mentioned something that is another thing about these crazy differences on the models. The field offices in GA, the Carolinas, and VA have to start deciding during the overnight shift tomorrow night about issuing Winter Storm Watches.
Click to expand...
They could wait until even 24 hours out to issue watches, but with the chance of this being a big hit for some areas, they may get pushback from people who said there wasn't ample warning if they did that. And 24 hours out, you'd normally expect warnings and advisories to start getting issued instead of watches
 
The euro and gfs are night and day at hr 78 with the northern energy. Wow


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HKY1994 said:
The euro and gfs are night and day at hr 78 with the northern energy. Wow


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Click to expand...
Better sampling in the next couple of cycles will probably fix that. Hopefully, we'll get some clarity very soon on the nature of the system...big wound up Miller A, MillerBcrap, or overraining.
 
Atlantic ridge still trending . Extrapolating that run should be another wound up phaser for sure.
If the gfs scored the coup on this storm it’s the new king. I’ve never seen the euro miss it this bad this close.

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