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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
I really like where this is heading
iGRXY
Member
Precip shield down in TX and Mexico looks better as well at 45.
I think everyone agrees that NE NC and SE VA will probably be the jackpot zone for this storm as those areas will likely be able to take the most advantage of this storm quickly intensifying off shore. However that doesn’t mean this will not turn into a significant event with high impacts for western areas in NC as well. Everything about this set screams a much more expansive area of snow on the west and northwest side of the storm… strong FGEN forcing and great jet dynamics are all at play here. I still think we’re headed toward a set up very similar to the January 2002 storm
That looks all WAA driven on nam with first wave something to watch
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Main show is later on Friday if this area isn’t too far west.
Still going, in fact just getting started good, but look how much sooner and further west the NAM is already.
That’s happening at a time that temperatures in CLT metro should be dropping into the upper 20s and staying well below freezing for the next 36 hours or so. Rainfall on Thursday is gonna prevent any pretreatment of the roads from having any effect, so it’s quite possible we may be dealing with a flash freeze in that time as well
iGRXY
Member
NAM looks like it's really slowing down
Really holding back no expansion of moisture at 18z Friday
at 57 looks suppressed. further east w precip
Yeah and it continues to increase totals probably not done increasing either. Regardless with very cold temps Friday morning travel looking tricky, remote learning day I guess
Gonna be a nod to the GFS? It looked good with the first wave and was very suppressed with the 2nd, NAM looking like that too now hmm
Mmfs remains very suppressed.
packfan98
Moderator
I'm not sure what happened with the surface reflection. Kind of hard to believe it totally fizzled with this.
NCSNOW
Member
Last night 12 z Great Run
This 12z today: To pos leaning
This 12z today: To pos leaning
the time we need precip to expand west it goes east. gulp.
Oh good we haven’t used our 1 NAM toss token… redeeming that now .. in all seriousness though has more WAA stuff on Thursday night Friday screwed up our main system on the NAM?
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Meh...it's the 60+ hour NAM. It was awful for Sunday's event. If the RGEM shifts east like this....?
iGRXY
Member
Was just about to say H5 looked way better than the surface reflection. There was more southern stream interaction that run.I'm not sure what happened with the surface reflection. Kind of hard to believe it totally fizzled with this.
Downeastnc
Member
Definitely more GFS like....RDU peeps gonna love this...I just need them 850's to scoot 50 miles further east...hell not even 20 will do it, the trends are great though for central and eastern NC...time to reel this one in.
this trend, not great.
Lol congrats birdman 
iGRXY
Member
I know it has been said that the NAM has been drier in the extended only to show more precip the closer we get. Is that bias at this range I wonder?
packfan98
Moderator
The Northern Stream really needs to dig further west and be stronger for this to work for more people. This Nam was a dud!
NCSNOW
Member
It was less. Look at the 2 comparisons I posted; Needs to dig down more
East she blows! Srry guys, gonna stick with my first call map for now.
iGRXY
Member
Yeah when it went for consolidation it started stretching the SW instead.
A few of us still love this but yeah I really don't want to play around with too much suppression but we all know it will tick back NW a bit so giving us some wiggle room
Might be a make or break day for the Atlanta folks if we’re going to see any impacts more than a dusting. Not a great start with the NAM. Hopefully the RGEM holds.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Looks like Birmingham might get NAM'd 
. Hopefully a eastward trend with precip and a bit more colder temps drain in. 3km nam hinted at moisture being all the way up to the Tennessee Alabama state line.
. Hopefully a eastward trend with precip and a bit more colder temps drain in. 3km nam hinted at moisture being all the way up to the Tennessee Alabama state line.