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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

If the more amped euro wins out and with the press of very cold air, there could be some impressive sleet totals. From everything I've read the most sleet to fall from one storm was 8". That was right here in the Triangle. Now I'm sure there has been higher totals somewhere else but I haven't found them to date. Maybe Larry would know.
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FallsLake said:
If the more amped euro wins out and with the press of very cold air, there could be some impressive sleet totals. From everything I've read the most sleet to fall from one storm was 8". That was right here in the Triangle. Now I'm sure there has been higher totals somewhere else but I haven't found them to date. Maybe Larry would know.
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This is exactly the storm I was thinking of last night when I was looking at the soundings and seeing some areas with 1.5-2” of QPF falling as sleet.
 
Zander98al said:
Any noticeable biases in your model? 50-75 miles swath of possible freezing rain through central Alabama.
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We've squashed all of the synoptic biases we've found. Honestly, it's biggest issues are with severe systems. I run a 2km to 3km hires version for severe systems and it has some issues with storm initiation, storm interaction, etc. With synoptic features and larger scale events, including winter storms, it has been lights out, really.
 
tempo47 said:
That reflectivity looks like ATL is gonna get hammered if its cold enough
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I think the precip is too light that far north.. remember this is composite reflectivity. When I get a chance, i'll switch it over to 3hr QPF instead of reflectivity. Definitely major ZR accums for east central ga thru the carolinas. I'll send the ptype totals when the system makes it's way thru
 
Couple of notes here. First precip on the NW side of these things are always under modeled so really it’s important to make sure we keep driving the colder air southeast at 850. Still think this is a snow storm along 85 with quite a bit of ice towards I20 and further south. This has the makings to be a statewide event and usually in those scenarios it’s snow in a good bit of the upstate with ice in the northern midlands going south. Personally I think everyone from North Georgia-GSP-CLT-GSO are sitting decent for snow and really RDU too but it just depends if we can keep pushing the WAR further east with each run.
 
iGRXY said:
Couple of notes here. First precip on the NW side of these things are always under modeled so really it’s important to make sure we keep driving the colder air southeast at 850. Still think this is a snow storm along 850 with quite a bit of ice towards I20 and further south. This has the makings to be a statewide event and usually in those scenarios it’s snow in a good bit of the upstate with ice in the northern midlands going south. Personally I think everyone from North Georgia-GSP-CLT-GSO are sitting decent for snow and really RDU too but it just depends if we can keep pushing the WAR further east with each run.
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Very true about more moisture on the west side being more expansive that modeled… something we will probably see more do on the NAM. It is surprising to see these changes with WAR getting a bit weaker… is there better sampling data going into the models now?
 
Step 1 Chattanooga in the game with temps. (usually the hardest part.)
Step 2 Drive moisture up high enough to hit Chattanooga.
Step 3 Moisture over run longer than 2 hours.


This is what we deal with in Chattanooga and the reason my signature is properly named.

Looks like we've accomplished step 1 for Wed- Sat. this week.
 
I don't know. This morning, many questions still exist IMO. Still think this is a weaker eastern NC/SC based storm. Gfs and CMC still show that. Euro to me is still an outlier with the phase and just ticked closer to the weaker Gfs solution. Perhaps they're starting to meet in the middle. Would love a Ukmet solution, but I still think it's closer to gfs right now. Looking at the WPC probabilities you also see it's leaning more east based.
 
Lol. FFC seems a tad put-out with the model discrepancies. Don’t envy their job this weekend.

Models begin to diverge Friday with the GFS digging an upper-level
shortwave through the Tennessee Valley, while the ECMWF deepens
the shortwave and produces a cut-off low by Friday night. The
latter allows moisture to exit quickly early Saturday, while the
GFS waits to sweep the precip out until later Saturday afternoon.

At this time, both models produce high-impact weather, though
p-type differs as they balance the moist warm air advection and
the ever-irritating wedge. The more aggressive 00Z ECMWF produces
accumulating snow generally north of I-20, beginning Friday
afternoon and continuing through midday Saturday. Additionally,
FZRA totals centered over the Carolinas extend into eastern
Georgia. Meanwhile, the 00Z GFS keeps minimal snow accumulations
just east of I-85 in north Georgia, and lower FZRA totals centered
around Augusta and extending into surrounding eastern and middle
Georgia counties.

Contrary to previous forecast packages, opted to include mention
of FZRA (in addition to the RA/SN) in the grids this morning,
careful to include the `OR` wording for mixed precip. Though the
wx grids ended up far more detailed/intricate for a Day 4/5
weather event, there is enough confidence in some kind of winter
precip event (moisture plus cold temperatures) to include it.

Without better model consistency this will remain a challenging
forecast. This setup continues to have the potential to be a
high-impact event that requires close attention. Stay alert to
changes in the forecast in the coming days.

Behind this event, extended period stays chilly with temperatures
running 5 to 10 or more degrees below climatological normals.
Another system brings precip back to the area early next week, but
of course, models are not in good agreement during that timeframe
either.
 
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