Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[Cary_Snow95]

Euro just needed to amp the northern stream a bit more which it trended to that run compared to 12z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn another “when my grandpa was alive” CAD coming back from the old days ?

 

[griteater]

Here we go with the amped up warm nose crap again. With that track, at least central NC, North and West should be snow. What happened to the ample supply of cold air at 850?

You want the wave diving down to stay more positive tilt as it dives down to get it colder farther east....this time it got to neutral quicker, so more moisture inland, but warmer along the coast. Fine line

 

[Shaggy]

This one run will not be the final solution so no need to lose hope on all.snow right now. Keep watching the ensembles and the ops and be patient.

Everyone east of Raleigh needs to hope this doesn’t happen like that euro op run

 

[Cary_Snow95]

We just had the gfs, cmc, ukie show snow and the euro show temps in the low 20s. We are okay

 

[Myfrotho704_]

cutoff 582dm ridge over Seattle during the event

 

[griteater]

Euro sfc loop

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Anyone got the snow/sleet/zr maps from WB

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

That is a long duration event. At RDU precip starts at 06z Friday and ends 18z Saturday

6zEuro sfc loop

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This event starts at hour 96 on the euro…. That’s 3-4 days out

 

[Cary_Snow95]

View attachment 107164View attachment 107165View attachment 107166

LOL just a casual 12" of snow with 3" of sleet and .5" of zr on top with the temps in the teens. Casual

 

[SC_Wildcat]

View attachment 107164View attachment 107165View attachment 107166

Those ice totals are ridiculous and most of SC would be in the dark.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This event starts at hour 96 on the euro…. That’s 3-4 days out View attachment 107167

We can literally see the start of the event on the 18z Nam tomorrow

 

[Shaggy]

Man after that ice map @Myfrotho704_ posted I really hope the euro is off.id be lights out for a few days.

 

[Shawn]

000
FXUS62 KCAE 170621
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
121 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

The ensemble means have clearly showed the large scale pattern with good
agreement heading into Friday, with a broad and deep trough sinking
across the eastern CONUS following the front. Extreme uncertainty
arises over if/where/when a diving shortwave will ride down the
backside of this trough. The run to run variance in operational,
blend, and ensembles has been very high so confidence is honestly
decreasing in the overall pattern for next weekend. So all that
needs saying at this time is: the overall synoptic pattern is
somewhat favorable for a Gulf/coastal system to develop and enough
cold air would be present for a possible frozen precip event. The
upstream interaction of the rapidly deepening low from Sunday`s
system needs to be cleared up before a more consistent signal can be
worked out.

 

[joehoo]

Man after that ice map @Myfrotho704_ posted I really hope the euro is off.id be lights out for a few days.

DT at WXrisk did say 24 hrs ago that there is a risk that the low COULD be pulled to track inland.

Sent from my LGMP260 using Tapatalk

 

[griteater]

EPS Mean followed along with the Euro Op in showing a wave evolution that was more conducive to increased precip chances compared to its last run. Here is the EPS Mean snow output on SV (don't know the specifics on the ptype algorithm)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Shawn]

Definitely ZR/IP on the mean; just not sure where it sets up. I think we all want to see 0c 850 as far South from their back yard as possible at this lead time.