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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
This ones gonna sneak up on a lot of folks. This is the kind of system that gives Atlanta/north-central Ga major issues.
I don’t want to get my hopes up to much yet. Lol. However you are super right. This is how much of middle GA, and usually NGA scores big wins with wintry precip and cold temps for sure.
Do you think this the one for central midlands of SC finally??
It’s an anonymously cold airmass…would think so.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
FFC-
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Progressive weather pattern continues into the extended period
with the first of many features approaching the state midweek.
Extended models are in agreement with cold front moving into the
Thursday with moisture axis remaining positioned over the state
through early Friday. At onset of this event, there is a
possibility of a light wintry mix over north Georgia early
Thursday where the moisture and colder temperatures combine, but
the big forecast concern continues to be the winter precip
potential for mainly Friday.
The extended models only seem to agree on the potential for winter
precip, but solutions continue to diverge with respect to Friday
timing and precip type. Each seems to struggle with how to resolve
surface low's warm, moist advection and wedge feature. The 00Z
GFS, which at this time seems to have the best run- to- run
consistency with producing winter precip, shows a combination
SN/FZRA event playing out over the eastern half of the state,
centered generally along I-20. The 00Z Euro, after showing a non-
event in the 12Z run, is back to showing a more robust FZRA event
unfolding in the Carolinas and down into eastern Georgia and
higher snow totals over north Georgia (including all of the ATL
metro).
Given the high forecast uncertainty, have continued to mention
RA/SN mixed precip in the grids for late Thursday through early
Saturday with periods of all SN over generally north Georgia.
Euro is slower than GFS to exit moisture on Saturday, but
consistent with other extended models with showing chilly sub-
seasonal temperatures in the 20s Sunday morning to keep whatever
winter impacts lingering through the weekend.
This has the potential to be a big event, but without a
convergence in model solutions and better run-to-run consistency,
messaging timing, amounts, and impacts will be challenging.
The forecast will certainly change over the coming days, so stay
tuned.
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Progressive weather pattern continues into the extended period
with the first of many features approaching the state midweek.
Extended models are in agreement with cold front moving into the
Thursday with moisture axis remaining positioned over the state
through early Friday. At onset of this event, there is a
possibility of a light wintry mix over north Georgia early
Thursday where the moisture and colder temperatures combine, but
the big forecast concern continues to be the winter precip
potential for mainly Friday.
The extended models only seem to agree on the potential for winter
precip, but solutions continue to diverge with respect to Friday
timing and precip type. Each seems to struggle with how to resolve
surface low's warm, moist advection and wedge feature. The 00Z
GFS, which at this time seems to have the best run- to- run
consistency with producing winter precip, shows a combination
SN/FZRA event playing out over the eastern half of the state,
centered generally along I-20. The 00Z Euro, after showing a non-
event in the 12Z run, is back to showing a more robust FZRA event
unfolding in the Carolinas and down into eastern Georgia and
higher snow totals over north Georgia (including all of the ATL
metro).
Given the high forecast uncertainty, have continued to mention
RA/SN mixed precip in the grids for late Thursday through early
Saturday with periods of all SN over generally north Georgia.
Euro is slower than GFS to exit moisture on Saturday, but
consistent with other extended models with showing chilly sub-
seasonal temperatures in the 20s Sunday morning to keep whatever
winter impacts lingering through the weekend.
This has the potential to be a big event, but without a
convergence in model solutions and better run-to-run consistency,
messaging timing, amounts, and impacts will be challenging.
The forecast will certainly change over the coming days, so stay
tuned.
raine1212
Member
GM, how far south is the snow line, Augusta I hope just a little would be nice.
rburrel2
Member
06z Rgem incorporates the southern wave. Matches up with the 00z Euro/Canadian.
As of now we have: 06z Rgem, 00z CMC, 00z Euro incorporating the southern wave and having a signficant winter storm
00z Ukmet doesn't incorporate as much and has a glancing blow
06z GFS doesn't incorporate at all and has a glacing blow to eastern sections
06z Icon misses but took a huge step toward the Euro/CMC camp
As of now we have: 06z Rgem, 00z CMC, 00z Euro incorporating the southern wave and having a signficant winter storm
00z Ukmet doesn't incorporate as much and has a glancing blow
06z GFS doesn't incorporate at all and has a glacing blow to eastern sections
06z Icon misses but took a huge step toward the Euro/CMC camp
This is our February 2021 comeback
lexxnchloe
Member
This is what WXrisk is saying now
lexxnchloe
Member
Hopefully this low goes east of hatteras and not over richmond, lol
BHS1975
Member
This is one of the few ways ATL can get more than an inch.
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Snownut
Member
This one has the potential to be a big one for alot more people. Especially if you a get just a bit further NW track. The Rates will be higher with this storm it looks like. The whole state of SC Could see winter weather with this one
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The biggest key that I’m seeing right now is the consistency in the models of a strong push of Arctic air both out of the Plains, and CAD reinforcing it east of the Apps. There is a widespread snow pack put down now so it’s easy to see why there wouldn’t be much moderation of this airmass. That’s the biggest reason to me why so many more areas are in play… it’s rare to see a mountains to coast winter storm in the Carolinas, but this has all the makings of one
packfan98
Moderator
6z Euro looked pretty similar to 0z to me. In fact, most modeling is surprisingly similar with the setup. Drastically different results depending on if the sw energy gets broken up or all comes out together. I’d lean towards the energy staying more consolidated and come out a bit faster. We should know tomorrow after everything is sampled, and then we can focus on what happens in our region as a result.
