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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

This is a positive trend on the NAM for the last three models run. Maybe it can continue and come more west?View attachment 110436
Id say anything is in the realm of possibility, if I were a betting man I'd say we may see a few more trends west and then it'll lock in. My ultimate opinion was this was going back to it's OG forecast run that started all this. It'd. Be icing on the cake if this thing was off to the races when it moves through the gulf.
 
Looks like SC and maybe far eastern GA isn't done yet. The snow is inching futher south each run on the GFS. The NAM even prints out some snow for the Midlands. Only if we can get the Low to bomb out off the coast of GA/SC instead of off the coast NC, that would be amazing for many of us. I wonder what would it take for that to happen?
I think our best shot is for models to keep sending this thing negative tilt sooner and sooner and take our chances with a bombing low to our south tugging poleward. We really need that thing to get going sooner.
 
Beautiful just beautiful

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You ain't lying. That's one more shift away from :)
And about 3 more shifts away from :( lol

I think we're going to continue to see this thing power up. Just fingers crossed it can stay out there a little bit. I'm serious....someone nearby is going to get smoked. If we're wishing, might as well go ahead and find a wave in the arctic jet to drop in and go for broke. It's been a long time since we've had one to put in the legend book.
 
This is one of those cases where the eastern peidmont/ENC might get a legit storm, but western areas still manage to squeeze out a couple inches, unless we amplify way more. this ain’t a typical Miller A depicted by the GEFS ens, it’s a amped one. I’d favor amplification trends over eastern trends unless energy out west tries to feel the PNA ridge, get tucked in, and get stuck, and or the energy out west becomes to amped and gets stuck, we need a fast clean entry of the SS energy, and the northern stream can do the rest, we need entry of the northern stream quicker out of Canada/but further west for a good tilt and deeper trough base, and we could use that peice of energy that seemingly boosts the tilt (which many have mentioned). deeper trough base is responsible for Better CAA in all levels. Honestly the biggest issues is the fail options I stated
 
The trends of the GEFS past 5 runs is nuts...

View attachment 110446

It's very close to the date / time that shall not be named. Will be interesting to see how other guidance responds to this idea. I had figured the Euro would have done something like this by now, with it backing off and GFS taking over for the general idea. Since the Euro has super small baby steps to a better solution, this interests me how it pans out and the eventual winner.
 
With the deeper trough, GFS is trending toward getting the precip going earlier here in GA, and with colder temperatures aloft

Ga9yDrg.gif
What’s in the gulf? Near panhandle?
 
It's very close to the date / time that shall not be named. Will be interesting to see how other guidance responds to this idea. I had figured the Euro would have done something like this by now, with it backing off and GFS taking over for the general idea. Since the Euro has super small baby steps to a better solution, this interests me how it pans out and the eventual winner.
What’s your feeling as of now for Midlands @Shawn?
 
The trends of the GEFS past 5 runs is nuts...

View attachment 110446
Amazing trends to say the least. The trough is digging futher South and west. The Low pressure is also trending stronger futher south as well. NE North Carolina and SE Virigna should love what they're seeing right now. This is appears to be the making of a huge and powerful storm for them. Also this isn't far away from being a bigger storm for Central NC and maybe even down towards Central SC as well.
 
This is one of those cases where the eastern peidmont/ENC might get a legit storm, but western areas still manage to squeeze out a couple inches, unless we amplify way more. this ain’t a typical Miller A depicted by the GEFS ens, it’s a amped one. I’d favor amplification trends over eastern trends unless energy out west tries to feel the PNA ridge, get tucked in, and get stuck, and or the energy out west becomes to amped and gets stuck, we need a fast clean entry of the SS energy, and the northern stream can do the rest, we need entry of the northern stream quicker for a good tilt and deeper trough base, and we could use that peice of energy that seemingly boosts the tilt (which many have mentioned). deeper trough base is responsible for Better CAA in all levels. Honestly the biggest issues is the fail options I stated
Yeah getting the trough deeper and doing that quicker is the ticket.....colder and more precip. Here is a speed max dropping down into the backside of the trough at 500mb which helps (North Dakota to North Florida). 2nd image is a trend loop on that sucker at hr78

ip0ViPX.gif


uduSa1R.gif
 
Early on in the run is so key...a slightly weaker and less diggy southern energy is what's helping. We need it to come on out, and the weaker it is the quicker it comes out I would think.

Such a delicate balance....it's no wonder its so dang hard to get snow here.

That little piece of energy getting left behind in SoCal helps it seems.

trend-gfs-2022012518-f039.500hv.conus.gif


trend-gfs-2022012518-f054.500hv.conus.gif
 
And about 3 more shifts away from :( lol

I think we're going to continue to see this thing power up. Just fingers crossed it can stay out there a little bit. I'm serious....someone nearby is going to get smoked. If we're wishing, might as well go ahead and find a wave in the arctic jet to drop in and go for broke. It's been a long time since we've had one to put in the legend book.
Agree with all this. I’ve just now been able to get caught up things as it’s been a busy day at work… last week of the fiscal year. Looking at the trends today there is definitely some reason for excitement right now… especially for those of us along and east of I-77 in NC and even down into north central SC. The one thing that I’m a little bit worried about is the possibility that this thing takes on a negative tilt too soon and then we have to worry about our old friend the warm nose again
 
as it stands now we do not have march 1980 on our hands, but i looked up the case study for it and was just generally completely floored at the similarities. would not take many more 10 mile tweaks to the southwest for this to become truly memorable. we've already gone from flizzard to uhh this could be an event in like 12 hours
 
And about 3 more shifts away from :( lol

I think we're going to continue to see this thing power up. Just fingers crossed it can stay out there a little bit. I'm serious....someone nearby is going to get smoked. If we're wishing, might as well go ahead and find a wave in the arctic jet to drop in and go for broke. It's been a long time since we've had one to put in the legend book.

It's weird for you to be more bullish than me, unsure how to handle myself. I'd really like to get the vorticity closer to the US or in the US before getting way on board thing is that'll be with only around 24 hours to go. I do like the idea of a general dusting to 2 around here
 
GFS snowfall trend for today's runs...someone living clean in NE NC.

View attachment 110429

Tired of being trolled lol

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Beautiful just beautiful

1643468400-7xdUwxPgPJ4.png
Notice how most models and their ensembles continue to trend towards the CIPS analog projections. It’s good to trust what’s happened in the past to understand what can happen in the future. This looks to be a perfect example .. I wonder if models continue to trend that way to something actually close to that CIPS analog snowfall @KyloG was so nice to share with us
 
I'm almost certain that the March '80 storm got cranking in the Gulf, which we will need now if we want a repeat of any kind.
Indeed, but January 2000, for example, got cranking in the Atlantic, IIRC. Definitely going to be hard to throw precip further west than the Piedmont without it getting started up in the Gulf, though.
 
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