Clem282340
Member
how did it look in sc
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
DC all in on HECS ticket #48 at the meat counter.
I find when the majority of CIPS analogs are high it does correlate. But, would rather see them tomorrow back it up.
You can’t live in NC right now and look at these and think “this one looks over for us, rip, out to sea, not going to work” .. let’s remember were 5 days away and we are NW trend magnets inside 2 days .. scrumptious to say the least
Pretty classic look for the MA crew at day 4, I would be prepping the clearing equipment 95 north of Richmond to NYC, particularly areas east of the Interstate. While we like Central FL or even GA, this is textbook with near term correction for those areas. Inside the benchmark with occlusion still on the table. Chase watch hoisted.
lexxnchloe
Member
Here is WXrisks ideas
"Scenario #2 is a glancing blow. That is to say, the large powerful LOW pressure area tracks fairly close to the coast so that the western fringes of the LOW pressure area brings accumulating snow to the eastern portions of North Carolina, the Southeastern of Virginia, perhaps the coast of Delmarva, eastern Long Island and southeastern New England. There would be strong winds, coastal flooding, and this could be significant winter event for only those areas. But this outcome would NOT be a direct hit or eastern Mid Atlantic as most of the heavy snow would stay off the coast to the east, this outcome would still be a major hit for New England. This is what WxRisk favors right now.
To the north, this Trough will drive a new strong cold front Across the middle Atlantic and New England regions. this font will reinforce the cold air on the East Coast for the weekend Nor’easter/ East Coast winter storm. This means that whatever develops along the East Coast on Friday and Saturday, the atmosphere will be cold enough to support mainly snow as far south as southern portions of North Carolina and northwest portions of South Carolina."
He doesnt think temps will be an issue for most of NC.
"Scenario #2 is a glancing blow. That is to say, the large powerful LOW pressure area tracks fairly close to the coast so that the western fringes of the LOW pressure area brings accumulating snow to the eastern portions of North Carolina, the Southeastern of Virginia, perhaps the coast of Delmarva, eastern Long Island and southeastern New England. There would be strong winds, coastal flooding, and this could be significant winter event for only those areas. But this outcome would NOT be a direct hit or eastern Mid Atlantic as most of the heavy snow would stay off the coast to the east, this outcome would still be a major hit for New England. This is what WxRisk favors right now.
To the north, this Trough will drive a new strong cold front Across the middle Atlantic and New England regions. this font will reinforce the cold air on the East Coast for the weekend Nor’easter/ East Coast winter storm. This means that whatever develops along the East Coast on Friday and Saturday, the atmosphere will be cold enough to support mainly snow as far south as southern portions of North Carolina and northwest portions of South Carolina."
He doesnt think temps will be an issue for most of NC.
jeremyt
Member
A lot of details to be sorted out, I am at about 10% feeling as it stands for my back yard. Marginal temps and the low looks strung out.
If this comes back and slams the East Coast can we put the 4-7 day dead zone, lack of sampling argument to rest with affirmation, once and for all?
I personally think the sampling argument is more valid in a set up like this when we’re completely needing phasing to develop the storm.
Flotown
Member
For us dummies...meaning??
iGRXY
Member
It definitely is. Trying to guess what these pieces of energy are going to do without adequate sampling of them is almost pointless.
iGRXY
Member
GFS continues to underperform on the strength of the western ridge. We want it tall and sharp so that our energy can’t hopefully continue to dig as far south as possible.
Fountainguy97
Member
Starting 00z off with(out) a bang.
NAM following GFS.
NAM following GFS.
Agreed. I've been looking at this too.
The position of that vort max off the California and its influence on the PNA ridge amplitude and orientation are key IMO.