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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

RDPS

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Arcc said:
While not in threat of the big game, but a few more trends like that put us back in the chance of a inch or two.
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Anything over a dusting for me would be joyous. Trends are putting more moisture behind the front. Hopefully it continues!
 
RAH. Pretty bullish and they didn't see the GFS:

...Another round of wintry weather/snow late Friday through early
Saturday....

Thursday and Thursday night: In advance of the strong upper level
trough digging into the Central US, another low-amplitude southern
stream shortwave will become increasingly sheared as it ejects
through the SE US. This disturbance aloft could produce some
scattered thin mid/high clouds across southern NC during the day,
followed by a marked increase in clouds Thursday night. Though
weakening/modifying, the cold surface high pressure will linger
across the area through Friday morning. Continued chilly, with highs
ranging from upper 30s/near 40 north to mid south. Lows in the 20s.

Friday and Friday night: Models are coming into better agreement and
thus forecaster confidence is increasing.

The upper trough over the central and eastern US will reload as yet
another strong, amplifying shortwave trough dives SE, potentially
deepening into a closed upper low as it moves through the Carolinas
late Friday/early Saturday. In response to the incredibly strong
synoptic scale ascent, sfc cyclogenesis will quickly spin up off the
Florida coast Friday morning and will start to undergo rapid
deepening and quite possibly bombogenesis late Friday night/early
Saturday as it races north, well off the NC coast. Since there is
now increasing model agreement that the low will be well offshore,
the onset of rain/precip has slowed down considerably, delayed until
the afternoon when BL temps and surface wet bulb temps are above
freezing. In fact, it`s entirely possible that central NC could see
very little rain from the actual coastal low. Instead, the bulk of
lift and precip will be associated with the trailing,
amplifying/deepening northern stream trough that will overspread the
area from the west/northeast Friday evening/ night, coincident with
a surface cold front that will move through the area. Latest runs of
the EC and Canadian now suggest that the trough will close off
across central NC as it moves through the area Friday night. The
resultant deep column cooling will result in a fairly efficient
change-over from rain to snow, with any transition p-type of
freezing rain/sleet being very short-lived and inconsequential. Very
preliminary snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible, highest
across north/northeast NC. Stay tune.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
To me it seemed that there was more energy in the sw portion of the trough
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metwannabe said:
Tired of being trolled lol

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Looks like SC and maybe far eastern GA isn't done yet. The snow is inching futher south each run on the GFS. The NAM even prints out some snow for the Midlands. Only if we can get the Low to bomb out off the coast of GA/SC instead of off the coast NC, that would be amazing for many of us. I wonder what would it take for that to happen?
 
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