Big dogs are usually defined by a long wave trough axis, full latitude upper air with hard right at base, vs shortwave.
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Yeah, we really need the energy to be consolidated at the south, which the GFS has but then lost.
I'm procrastinating on leg day by overanalyzing the 18z and it just feels really blippy. It took a weird jolt. 30 hours in on the GFS and there's nothing that makes me say "hey thats IT!", if anything I thought our s/w (east of that little tail on Alaska) actually looked a little better and primed to take a dive.
It just completely diverges around hour 78 and by hour 90 it looks a lot different from the previous few runs. I mean it just jolts to a worse solution.
Our s/w splits some and wants to go way further south west into Mexico. I think the GFS also ran this play with the southern energy some last week. It completely corrodes the southern end of our shortwave and no serious cyclogenesis occurs south of the mason dixon line. Is it right? Don't know but this run feels like a good "it's a blip" candidate.
When you zoom out on the GEFS ensembles here, there was a slight nudge towards a worse solution but it looked better than I thought.
Overall think this is a pretty blippy run, but we'll see if the 00zs keep it, which not gonna lie, would suck a lot!
It just completely diverges around hour 78 and by hour 90 it looks a lot different from the previous few runs. I mean it just jolts to a worse solution.
Our s/w splits some and wants to go way further south west into Mexico. I think the GFS also ran this play with the southern energy some last week. It completely corrodes the southern end of our shortwave and no serious cyclogenesis occurs south of the mason dixon line. Is it right? Don't know but this run feels like a good "it's a blip" candidate.
When you zoom out on the GEFS ensembles here, there was a slight nudge towards a worse solution but it looked better than I thought.
Overall think this is a pretty blippy run, but we'll see if the 00zs keep it, which not gonna lie, would suck a lot!
wow
Member
Blippi..B L I P P I
Not deep diving at this point (no pun) but I see some limitations in the northern Great Lakes preventing the long wave from dropping down wholesale.
It looks like the 18z Canadian was a big nod to the GFS in keeping the wave stuck over the SW.
Yikes
If, and its a big if, recent examples are an indicator of future performance, more energy will eject than currently advertised.
lexxnchloe
Member
OK, the 18gfs wasnt awesome but at the same time there is a rather strong low se of hatteras. I will take that 4 days out.
lexxnchloe
Member
Better how? Do you have a different map?
It held less of the energy.
The bottom was the 12z run
That’s a lot of light members for most of NC and some big members in ENC
In fact, 42/50 members have a light event here, that’s pretty solid
packfan98
Moderator
Nice. Thanks for posting. I’ve been excited for the possibilities with this storm, especially since you posted the CIPS analogs earlier. Seems like most of the time they show systems that miss us to the north with the dreaded NW trend for potential events we track. The one you posted today hit NC flush. Do you find the CIPS to be accurate?