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Zander98al
Guest
Your getting my hopes up, I see a wisp of snow in north Alabama ?. I need my hopes squashed before they go up
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
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Deleted member 609
Guest
So is this from phasing earlier?
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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NAMed
Yea the sfc reflection should have been better then that tbh
Hypsometric
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LickWx
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Sucks that the nam sucks
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Looking at the RH numbers, the triangle still had at least six hours of snow left
Yeah we would definitely deal with mixing issues but that track, strength verbatim would crash the column on exit and probably go pound town before completely shutting off.
This almost makes me think those CIPS analogs have some merit. This is a healthy accumulating snow band. Already looks like higher rates than our past storm but the catch is "warmer" temps meaning ratios would most likely be less than what we had then.
packfan98
Moderator
I'd argue for more. Go back and look at the Euro run and how long eastern NC was showing snow even when the Low pressures was well north of the area.
Trying not to get excited, but that's a good NAM run considering what we've been seeing. If 18z gfs comes back we might have something to look at tomorrow after all. Certainly for the 0z suites
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Zander98al
Guest
Tell you what, we may have a. Good chance at some backside snow in Alabama. Like this look. Would like to see it feel in some more
Hypsometric
Member
RDU was about to get plastered. Yes it's the NAM, yes it's atrocious this far out BUT you can use this as a point of reference. IF we keep this look moving forward, this might be what to expect.
JB's take around lunch when he posted this. that is a heck of a trough
Unlike last week where there were many moving parts, this is the grand planetary wave bundling its energy. So my take is, like 93, like 2010, like 2018 and most recently the analogged storm in early Jan. the GFS is going to have to correct toward the euro, But we will see, Just thought I would weigh in here
In the longer term what a war The Euro looks nothing like its weeklies by what is now day 15, The models are threatening Feb 2021. So if you enjoy the weather, this is the kind of pattern you like to get
Unlike last week where there were many moving parts, this is the grand planetary wave bundling its energy. So my take is, like 93, like 2010, like 2018 and most recently the analogged storm in early Jan. the GFS is going to have to correct toward the euro, But we will see, Just thought I would weigh in here
In the longer term what a war The Euro looks nothing like its weeklies by what is now day 15, The models are threatening Feb 2021. So if you enjoy the weather, this is the kind of pattern you like to get
NAM clown maps every 6 hours now 
Cary_Snow95
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The energy diving down on the back of the trough is a thing of beauty 
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I should’ve known. The same thing that happened last storm happened again when a branch of the SREF came way in.
I am remembering last storm and how the HRRR and NAM almost every new run almost created a strong piece of energy out of nowhere as we went towards verification. If they did that with the last system what could happen here?
That and be careful what you wish for, you really don't want it to come to much further west and there's really nothing to guarantee it won't. The fine line we walk around here
NCSNOW
Member
Lawdy
Cool thing about mega storms like this is that you could be hundreds of miles away from the jackpot and still received a storm that's 100%+ of your yearly climo simply from the blast radius of these things being so large
I would argue the opposite. The RGEM (all joking aside) was by far the best performing model for last storm. The NAM lost the storm completely 24-48 hours before the storm was suppose to happen. This time frame is suppose to be the NAM's "wheelhouse" I take everything the NAM puts out now with massive mounds of salt. Has no credibility in my eyes going forward other than to observe how its reacting to trends in other models.
Look at all that vort shrapnel off the coast. Love seeing that.
packfan98
Moderator
18z Icon has a stronger system than 12z, but there's nowhere near the dig as the other models and has the outcome further east.
Well to be fair it had some crap runs that were wrong in the lead up but boy when it figured it out, it really figured it out.
The NAM was showing precip not even making it to the coast 48 hours out with last week’s system. What do you mean?
Yeah I can't stop staring at that map
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Zander98al
Guest
Are we gonna see constant trends up until go time with this system, like that last one that was on a Sunday? Seems like this is a new normal. If it keeps going we may see some snow in alabamur
You want the big dog, that's what it looks like. It's very close to tucking the low into the coast. But it is the long range NAM. That said, I'm expecting a trend back to a big storm. Historic? Meh, that's impossible to call. But I think somebody in the SE up into VA is going to get smoked.
Icon shows rain/snow but that’s likely SN I’m that band, and a good burst of snow in this sort of setup, this is ofc a icon solution and one possibility 
Never say never but honestly I think any expectations for this to bring alabama snow should be very tampered. I think the best places for this to trend better for them would be western NC and SC
Pretty much what @CaryWx is alluding to. Yes, it had some crap runs but other models have as well.
I get it and we've certainly got it--in the wrong way, but runs like the ICON has just revealed have me thinking -too far west- will not be what we have to contend with
RDPS was a little more positive tilt with the wave dropping down this run
DadOfJax
Member
Not our storm, not our year.