Wasn’t the euro showing something similar last night though? Super flat?
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
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griteater
Member
Wave packet dropping down thru the Rockies just split…one to the Ohio Valley and another to Arizona. GFS pulled that move some with the last storm before correcting late. CMC was doing this a couple days ago too
Yeah I think we’re still at a point that we’re gonna see different solutions. Ultimately I think Wednesday as the data sampling is better is when we’ll see a solution form. There is just so many moving parts with this set up
ajr
Member
Eastward shift on 18z GEFS
Personally I think the gfs looks about how you’d want it to at this point, for this to work out for anyone south of Virginia we need to keep this ots for as long as possible
That may be better than the last run. That's rain for you, though, buddy!
And the GFS is allowed one bad run. It needs a break. It's probably tired from whipping the Euro all over the place this winter.
ajr
Member
Not sure how much that northern Atlantic feature matters but it doesn’t seem to be helping us
Models clearly showing now the options we have here. Haven’t seen many inland solutions .. so I’m willing to bet we’re dealing with a 1. out to sea scenario (nothing but cold for us) 2. Up the coastline (best case scenario snowing to beat the band) 3. Middle ground solution (a light event(flizzards) for many as a phase tries to get going but is too late for us and of course the NE gets this beast)
Right now I would continue to harp that option 3 seems the most likely scenario given current guidance. BUT this is another situation where very minute changes in the H5 evolution can have massive impacts on storm development and track which has big implication for our weather this weekend. With this much lead time still remaining I kind of like the models moving further East at this time vs west .. as we have all seen the trends west we usually see in the 24-72 hour range
Right now I would continue to harp that option 3 seems the most likely scenario given current guidance. BUT this is another situation where very minute changes in the H5 evolution can have massive impacts on storm development and track which has big implication for our weather this weekend. With this much lead time still remaining I kind of like the models moving further East at this time vs west .. as we have all seen the trends west we usually see in the 24-72 hour range
It's not really ots though. It's sheared out which is really bad if we want the energy consolidated at the base of the trough in order to amplify quicker.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
GEFS was way worse
I wouldn’t be too drastic about it .. it’s more like a step in the wrong direction knowing we have 100 hours to step back in the right direction
If you see a major shift in the GEFS that lends credit this thing is not going our way. Ensembles aren't meant to have major shifts like that unless there is merit to the operational gfs just now.
18z was a flop no doubt, these late afternoon gut punches are never fun to take, but it flies in the face of the direction things have taken today and it's reasonable to reserve judgment until the 00zs.
That’s a big snow for us on the JMA! ?
If I had a nickel for every day 5 snow the JMA showed for Raleigh. ?
I don't see the big cause for concern. Both/all waves are really still stuck in their parent trough/vortex somewhere north/south of AK. Let's at least save the freak outs until they become their own identifiable features that can be initialized.
After seeing us resurrect a Threat going from nothing to a snow storm 24 hours out makes me think we shouldn’t be freaking out over any west or East shift 100 hours out .. this is run of the mill stuff as it has been for the last two storms