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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter $alt
- Start date
Snow mean improved east. 
Pilotwx
Member
For those of us back in the foothills, NW Piedmont , SW VA and Mountains we need it to trend way back to the SW and develop over the Gulf and more like the Central to Western Gulf , if we are gong to see a big snow. East looks better right now
tenuous sentiment here. The gradients for this storm will likely have a lot of north/south gradients. If you folks do well with this, there's going to be a lot of unhappy folks east of 77 (and vice versa)
Looking at precip and 850s, the JMA looked like a big hit for most of the Carolinas with lesser amounts into eastern Ga. FWIW.
Exactly and for Raleigh to even do well there will likely be some heavy rain in the far eastern coastal plain I'm guessing. Certainly the sound. obx and coastal areas.
Stephenb888
Member
How much more work do we need to do for us in upstate Sc to get in on this? A few small tweaks or is it big changes?
Not much. As we get closer to verification time, expect things to come in more amplified. That's been the idea recently and I don't see a reason for it not to. The Euro being sheared out is okay at this point.. here's the thing.. the Euro recently wiffle waffles from way too amped to way too sheared. It probably won't be long before we see the Euro do some sort of way over-amped situation only to pull back too far and then for the GFS to sniff out the general idea.
As many have pointed out, you want to see energy consolidated at the base as opposed to a N-S axis. Early read is this looks more like a MA/NE storm with maybe the Carolinas getting clipped as it begins to bloom around our latitude. Bombing needs to begin and occur well to our south for a big dog, right now that does not look to be the case.
Pilotwx
Member
Well a few on here could care less if Foothills or Western region ever gets snow again. But, for our area this is what we need. East has a lot more margin for error
ATLwxfan
Member
We’ve seen the last two storms give us a strong early signal then trend east only to then trend back west and closer to the original solution. The models love to dance it seems. Will it shift back enough??
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Stephenb888
Member
I think it will. The trends lately say yes. But who knows.
Models will always go back and forth here. *as of now* I see this as a swing and a miss for most of us in the SE. I think the Carolinas have the best shot if anything. The pattern is too progressive right now with energy flying all over the place. I know things can change for sure, but we need the pattern to slow down a bit to get that energy to act right. lol. Well....if we did that we would figure a way to screw that up and have it cut inland over TN...LOL
Cut those totals in half, though. Kuchera sure does.
As usual, good, rational analysis from WeatherNC to keep some inflated expectations in check.
smast16
Member
Y'all had your cake last storm. Lol!
RAH still watching. Might be looking at 0z runs tomorrow night before models align better.
Friday and Friday night: The upper trough over the central and
eastern US will reload as yet another strong, amplifying shortwave
trough dives SE, reaching the SE US late Friday/early Saturday.
Models keep any coastal low pressure system development offshore,
just how far offshore remains high uncertainty and remains a source
of large model spread in just how much liquid equivalent precip will
occur inland. Given that the shortwave trough in question is still
in a data sparse region over the Gulf of Alaska, expect to see a
narrowing/clustering of solutions once the system moves onto the NW
Pacific coast within the next 24 to 36 hours. Based on current model
projections, precip should begin as all rain with critical onset
timing occurring after daybreak Friday. If inland
precipitation/moisture is adequate, precipitation type could change-
over to snow Friday evening/night before ending from deep column
cooling as the northern stream trough moves into the area.
Friday and Friday night: The upper trough over the central and
eastern US will reload as yet another strong, amplifying shortwave
trough dives SE, reaching the SE US late Friday/early Saturday.
Models keep any coastal low pressure system development offshore,
just how far offshore remains high uncertainty and remains a source
of large model spread in just how much liquid equivalent precip will
occur inland. Given that the shortwave trough in question is still
in a data sparse region over the Gulf of Alaska, expect to see a
narrowing/clustering of solutions once the system moves onto the NW
Pacific coast within the next 24 to 36 hours. Based on current model
projections, precip should begin as all rain with critical onset
timing occurring after daybreak Friday. If inland
precipitation/moisture is adequate, precipitation type could change-
over to snow Friday evening/night before ending from deep column
cooling as the northern stream trough moves into the area.
iGRXY
Member
NAM is further west as well
That’s nice but considering the way the nam was last setup, I can’t even take it serious hahaaa