griteater
Member
CMC Ensemble Mean
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Improvement 
Not having a high on top is pretty typical of Miller A setups
WPC said the upstate has had their moment
griteater
Member
GFS and CMC Ens Means have been slowing down the progression of the trough when you look at change loops....so, that's probably a good thing in terms of getting a storm etc.
Anyway, here is a comparison of those 2 at hr108
Anyway, here is a comparison of those 2 at hr108
I hate to seem overzealous, but I really think this storm has the synoptic potential of our January 2000 storm.
That storm involved a wave diving out of Canada into Idaho/Montana along a trough base that progressively moves east across Canada That allows for it to amplify as it moves over the Rockies, then eventually cuts off as the WAR further pinches the energy off. At the moment, most models don't dig or amplify the wave as much (The GFS/GEFS is closest).
Fortunately, models usually underestimate the amount of amplification and strength of the WAR which would benefit us downstream. The question is, to what extent are models underestimating it? Is the GFS onto something like the last two storms, or the stint up? Hopefully, the trends continue, but it's still looking like the momentum is favoring a northeast storm.
That storm involved a wave diving out of Canada into Idaho/Montana along a trough base that progressively moves east across Canada That allows for it to amplify as it moves over the Rockies, then eventually cuts off as the WAR further pinches the energy off. At the moment, most models don't dig or amplify the wave as much (The GFS/GEFS is closest).
Fortunately, models usually underestimate the amount of amplification and strength of the WAR which would benefit us downstream. The question is, to what extent are models underestimating it? Is the GFS onto something like the last two storms, or the stint up? Hopefully, the trends continue, but it's still looking like the momentum is favoring a northeast storm.
Nice...thanks for sharing. The last "big" miller A I recall for Raleigh was the boxing day event.
Oc line into south Florida ?UKMet run
Yeah it’s been a while since we’ve seen a legit Miller A storm, Christmas 2010 was the last one if I’m not mistaken
Would be nice but I think we are gonna have to hope we get a little more moisture behind the front.
If you want to shoot for the moon with snow totals in nc/SC you want as much energy as you can get at the base of the trough and have to hope you don't jerk it too far west. As it stands though the gfs and cmc are full lat troughs with rain changing to snow from west to east as the column collapses when the low winds up off of the obx
Definitely a GA storm Miller A's usually do well throughout the SE. The question really comes down how much the energy digs to the SW US and then is it able to move eastward and turn Neg. Tilt the sooner it does that the better for generating precipitation thru the SE with with cold to match.
Ideal Miller A skirts the Gulf Coast shoreline along MS/AL/Crosses over Florida toward Jacksonville and then wraps up NE toward GA Coastline
BHS1975
Member
I was in NW Raleigh and it started out as sleet for about an hour and then temps dropped to the upper 20s with like 4" per hr snowfall rates. The changeover was very fast.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I got 8” in that exact scenario 3-1-09, pavement and grass
olhausen
Member
The gfs is much improved since then though. Not sure how it’s done elsewhere but it has been much better this winter for our area at least.
It is much improved overall, but it’s still doesn’t have great resolution and is still known to not pick up well on dynamic cooling at the surface. I think the key here is that if there is snow falling at good rates, these maps showing temperatures 35-37 will most likely end up being more in the 31-33 range
