Cant speak for Durham, but in Greensboro it was upper 20s and all snow from the beginning. My parents, in Pittsboro just to your SW, had initial sleet that changed over. Gso had about 13 inches, parents had 16.
I agree with that…. especially with the GFS which doesn’t do a good job with dynamic cooling at the surface. I remember a series of GFS runs a few years… I think before the January 2018 anafront storm, where the GFS was giving CLT like 10-12 hours of snow but never dropping the temperature below 34… it was very wrong obviously as temperatures fell easily to around 30 as the snow continued.
Precipitation type forecasting is about far more than 2m surface temperatures - you have to consider the entire layer, which in this case will be wrapping in some very cold air. As precipitation rates intensify, this melting and evaporational cooling will lower the surface temperature given the right track and position of the upper level features.
Exactly. If it’s snowing hard enough(especially at night) 2M temps will respond
I don’t think this is the set up that anyone really prefers here in the Carolinas… we all would love to see a nice big high over New England land temperatures at or below freezing like we saw this past Friday. That being said, the set up we’re seeing now can work for us, and if it does chances are it’s going to be a pretty big snowstorm.
I think that this is a fair critique and a week from now there may totally be some place that was supposed to be primarily snow but is a totally a bust because they couldn't get out of the 38 and rain neighborhood. That sucks but it's just what typically happens down here. However I think that we still have more systematic issues to contend with. Let's worry about getting a second date first before sweating over if the person belongs to a family that does turkey trots on thanksgiving.
Ha, I'll analyze it with the GFS Ensemble Mean. This is the bump we want to see....deeper trough / farther south / stronger at the base
I know how this works. it's still a wing and a prayer. Too many variables to time perfect for this to work (Back side lift, moisture, Rates) for all to get a slushy 33 Degree snow. Meh, not excited.
Final result will probably be near to the original model forecasts if I had to guess lol.
