Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[smast16]

I'm still not sold on this yet, 2m Temps suck, and you could make a case they're marginal at best. We're counting on this low winding up just right to crash column to support snow at the lowest levels?

Sorry to come in here and pour just plain old cold water on this parade.

 

[Avalanche]

Some of y’all who were out here at the time can correct me if I’m wrong:

Wasn’t most of 1/25/2000 occurring during marginal temps?

Cant speak for Durham, but in Greensboro it was upper 20s and all snow from the beginning. My parents, in Pittsboro just to your SW, had initial sleet that changed over. Gso had about 13 inches, parents had 16.

 

[Chazwin]

I wouldn' t put too much stock in the temperature profiles yet, I'm more excited for the western trend.....much more potential now than last 4hr. the location and intensity of the storm is gonna make a huge difference.

I agree with that…. especially with the GFS which doesn’t do a good job with dynamic cooling at the surface. I remember a series of GFS runs a few years… I think before the January 2018 anafront storm, where the GFS was giving CLT like 10-12 hours of snow but never dropping the temperature below 34… it was very wrong obviously as temperatures fell easily to around 30 as the snow continued.

 

[Hypsometric]

I'm still not sold on this yet, 2m Temps suck, and you could make a case they're marginal at best. We're counting on this low winding up just right to crash column to support snow at the lowest levels?

Sorry to come in here and pour just plain old cold water on this parade.

Precipitation type forecasting is about far more than 2m surface temperatures - you have to consider the entire layer, which in this case will be wrapping in some very cold air. As precipitation rates intensify, this melting and evaporational cooling will lower the surface temperature given the right track and position of the upper level features.

 

[BullCityWx]

Precipitation type forecasting is about far more than 2m surface temperatures - you have to consider the entire layer, which in this case will be wrapping in some very cold air. As precipitation rates intensify, this melting and evaporational cooling will lower the surface temperature given the right track and position of the upper level features.

Exactly. If it’s snowing hard enough(especially at night) 2M temps will respond

 

[Shawn]

CAE (quite far South) literally goes from 40 to 33 and heavy snow (falling through the air, will be hard to accumulate after so much rain). I think the cooling is the least of a concern right now due to dynamics.

 

[packfan98]

Here's the trough axis on the GEFS members that created the snow maps. Anyone care to provide some further analysis?

 

[Chazwin]

I'm still not sold on this yet, 2m Temps suck, and you could make a case they're marginal at best. We're counting on this low winding up just right to crash column to support snow at the lowest levels?

Sorry to come in here and pour just plain old cold water on this parade.

I don’t think this is the set up that anyone really prefers here in the Carolinas… we all would love to see a nice big high over New England land temperatures at or below freezing like we saw this past Friday. That being said, the set up we’re seeing now can work for us, and if it does chances are it’s going to be a pretty big snowstorm.

 

[ILMRoss]

I'm still not sold on this yet, 2m Temps suck, and you could make a case they're marginal at best. We're counting on this low winding up just right to crash column to support snow at the lowest levels?

Sorry to come in here and pour just plain old cold water on this parade.

I think that this is a fair critique and a week from now there may totally be some place that was supposed to be primarily snow but is a totally a bust because they couldn't get out of the 38 and rain neighborhood. That sucks but it's just what typically happens down here. However I think that we still have more systematic issues to contend with. Let's worry about getting a second date first before sweating over if the person belongs to a family that does turkey trots on thanksgiving.

 

[griteater]

Here's the trough axis on the GEFS members that created the snow maps. Anyone care to provide some further analysis?
View attachment 110155

Ha, I'll analyze it with the GFS Ensemble Mean. This is the bump we want to see....deeper trough / farther south / stronger at the base

 

[Zander98al]

Is it just me, or is the system trending back to the original red letter day it was locking on to, that started all this buzz a few days ago? Seems like it a tad to me. Started out with Alabama to North Carolina into play with decent snow, and then it went to just the Carolinas and now it's trended back more west.

 

[iGRXY]

Worrying about 2m temps right now is pointless. If this is going to work for anybody to get snow the track and negative tilt will help collapse the column all the way to the ground from heavy precip and pulling in more cold air. Right now we have to worry about getting the vort to continue to dig and go negative tilt far enough west. You let the chips fall where they may if you get that to happen

 

[smast16]

Precipitation type forecasting is about far more than 2m surface temperatures - you have to consider the entire layer, which in this case will be wrapping in some very cold air. As precipitation rates intensify, this melting and evaporational cooling will lower the surface temperature given the right track and position of the upper level features.

I know how this works. it's still a wing and a prayer. Too many variables to time perfect for this to work (Back side lift, moisture, Rates) for all to get a slushy 33 Degree snow. Meh, not excited.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[jrips27]

 

[Shawn]

View attachment 110158

Why does this look so far off from Tomer's. Hm, I must have something set wrong.

 

[iGRXY]

Honestly this is going about like every snow storm has ever gone in the southeast. Storm shows up in the later medium range or long range, to let’s not say a loss of the storm but trending bad in the day 5-7 range to slowly trending back to a storm in the 3-5 day range. As of right now this is following that trend. Now whether it delivers or continues trending deeper and further west remains to be seen but you gotta like where you sit right now if you’re east of the mountains.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS looks like a in-situ CAD > to dynamic cooling/top to bottom cooling as we get CAA, during the rain it’s in the mid/upper 30s… we’re cooling from the upper and mid 30s to the lower 30s GFS verbatim. really not that bad like many setups we’ve seen the last several years. That setup in early January that had higher heights, less cold air aloft, temps in the 50s beforehand, and a crap H5 track still produced a inch to a couple inches of snow in areas north of I-40, after heavy rain, which was a top to bottom cooling setup

 

[Storm5]

Here's the trough axis on the GEFS members that created the snow maps. Anyone care to provide some further analysis?
View attachment 110155

I have nothing to add other than I would love the trough a little further west like a few of the members


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Zander98al]

Honestly this is going about like every snow storm has ever gone in the southeast. Storm shows up in the later medium range or long range, to let’s not say a loss of the storm but trending bad in the day 5-7 range to slowly trending back to a storm in the 3-5 day range. As of right now this is following that trend. Now whether it delivers or continues trending deeper and further west remains to be seen but you gotta like where you sit right now if you’re east of the mountains.

Final result will probably be near to the original model forecasts if I had to guess lol.