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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

BHS1975 said:
I was in NW Raleigh and it started out as sleet for about an hour and then temps dropped to the upper 20s with like 4" per hr snowfall rates. The changeover was very fast.


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Yeah that's exactly what happened. Started with a little freezing rain/sleet mix where I was and sleeted for a while after that. Then during the evening it changed to snow and the temp dropped. It wasn't marginal. It was cold. The next day was very cold with heavy snow for a good while and then it was cold after.

Also, you don't have to have a banana high for a Miller A, but a lot of our good Miller As have a high dropping into the midwest and scooting south and east. That's a typical Miller A SE snowstorm look. You do want some cold air feeding into the storm.

In this case, we already have some marginal cold. It's not like we're starting from scratch, coming out of the 70s with no cold air around. But the problem is, you need a rapidly strengthening storm to collapse the column while the storm is close enough to drop heavy precipitation. The surface is going to be mild, but it will cool and be fine when/if the changeover to snow happens. That's why I've been harping on this developing at a lower latitude than Cape Hatteras. We don't want a 1013 low off of Hatteras. We want a 913 low off of Myrtle and going into the 800s, heading N from there, while remaining just offshore. :)
 
Looks good to me
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
KyloG said:
Euro has trended better...would hope it's ens are much better.

View attachment 110181
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"Just keep trending, just keep trending...." Western ridge keeps shifting west, we need to keep that up so that backside energy will slide west and allow enough time for the wave to dig and amplify in just the right spot. If we can, it's boom boom time from RDU east at least.
 
KyloG said:
Euro has trended better...would hope it's ens are much better.

View attachment 110181
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Looks better. Need to take that purple string at the bottom to the shop and work on that a little and then you might have something pretty good.
 
Chazwin said:
It is much improved overall, but it’s still doesn’t have great resolution and is still known to not pick up well on dynamic cooling at the surface. I think the key here is that if there is snow falling at good rates, these maps showing temperatures 35-37 will most likely end up being more in the 31-33 range
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Yeah, in my experience heavy snow will invariably eventually drop the surface temps down to near freezing (32-33), at the least. Heavy snow and 35F for hours upon hours doesn’t really happen from what I’ve seen (not saying it’s impossible).
 
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