MichaelJ
Member
This looks like a carbon copy of the last storm, ENC jackpots and WNC is looking for a dusting. While it may come back to the NW a little, with no strong high to our North, probably not.
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
snowlover91
Member
After how poorly the NAM did with the last system, only thing it’s useful for this time around is to see if it is trending towards globals. Rgem, gfs, euro are top 3 watches.
Beginning to think this piece is our wildcard, getting this puppy to trend a little stronger/west could do wonders in the tilt/southern dig of the complex at large
The problem you have tho is there is nothing to hold this back toward the coast in a flow like that. I am not saying it won't happen, or be like the EURO, but you have to play catch the vort pieces at the right time and that is not going to be easy. If there was some blocking out ahead.....well...then..
packfan98
Moderator
12z RGEM says the game is still on.
lexxnchloe
Member
Alot of people seem negative on this but i like where the low is on most of the models. Could it still miss? Sure, but at the same time we dont need any huge shifts for this to be a goos storm, just minor changes.12z RGEM says the game is still on.
smast16
Member
Also, Stop reading into most of these maps as their 10:1 ratios. And this ain't about to be anything close to 10:1
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Vs the last run
packfan98
Moderator
It's a pay subscription service - https://maps.weatherbell.com/
Okay… I’m broke. LOL. Was hoping for free maps somewhere. Appreciate the response. HAGD
dsaur
Member
Could be the end result is what was showing early on with the last one. North central Ga being on the northern edge of a precip shield from a suppressed system, and getting the sleet and snow we so richly deserve
A south of I 20 deal. I've been under virga today, and if this weekend is similar, with much colder air in place, it becomes a matter of watching the precip shield coming in from the west.
NCSNOW
Member
RGEM/RDPS is Lock step and carbon copy of Euro Op at 5H. Spitting image. Ive trashed the EE rule and Now its the ER rule. Until it gets defeated or proven wrong, never bet against the Euro and RGEM inside 84.
When the RGEM speaks .. we listen 
Mean temps on the GEFS is in the upper 20s/ around 30 when it’s snowing, it would probably be close or at 10:1 during the peak of the event if it happens, esp with favorable diurnal timing
LickWx
Member
Isn’t the snow being shown in the eastern areas though which aren’t in the 20s?
Right now your in a pretty good spot but you really can't afford to much more westward shift
Positive early trend on the GFS. The entire northern stream is slightly west, and the southern vort max is a little east. Could make for an easier phase in coming frames?
12Z
VS 6Z
12Z
Mean temps around Raleigh is around 30Fduring the peak, for areas east as usual it’s warmer around 31-33
I'd be surprised if any of the ops show any widespread 4"+ snowfall amounts west of 95 and south of Greenville today. We'll probably have to wait until tomorrow for that. Positive trends and baby steps are what we're looking for att.
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10-4 on that. As long as we continue or improve on ensemble trends is all that I care about until Wednesday Night.
NCSNOW
Member
LP riding up Carolinas Coast was actually tucked in a little tighter, not to shabby with regards to placement. Need it to deepen some. But H5 is the story. Its gonna trend more toward RGEM and Euro I;m willing to bet
alfoman
Member
GFS reversing its progressive solutions towards a more amplified one, more similar to how the Euro has been handling the storm the past two model runs. Less strung out with the energy as it phases as well, so a solid trend back towards where we were yesterday. Really want a deeper and earlier phase for a rare & nice board-wide hit however.
Three days is still a plentiful amont of time for changes though! I think tonight's 0Z suite will be very telling as to where we are heading, if anywhere, with this system.
Three days is still a plentiful amont of time for changes though! I think tonight's 0Z suite will be very telling as to where we are heading, if anywhere, with this system.
i hate to beat a dead horse but if we had to draw up a map 4 days out this is exactly what you would want to see.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Gfs looks similar to RGEM with reflectivity
Right now your in a pretty good spot but you really can't afford to much more westward shift
I figured that you and I would get rain if it comes west much more.
Stephenb888
Member
The silence from my local Met (Chris Justus) tells me either this storm is a big nothing Burger for us, or he has no clue what’s gonna happen. I’m hoping it’s the second one.
gefs looks even better ??
This is more of a central Carolinas eastward storm potential than upstate SC.
wow
Member
just a little 250 mile jog west and i'm good. easy, right!?!?
Lots of possibilities 
Ron Burgundy
Member
Slowly working western areas back in. Not giving up yet.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Hoping for more amping in this situation really isn’t far fetched. So many times we’ve had a digging sw amp significantly all the way until hour 0. More amping we get on the southern side and we can pull the tilt back. Honestly not that far off