All 3 global ensembles...latest runs
Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
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That's so close to something special...Ukmet dug deeper at 12z compared to its 0z. Its furtherst east when this is happening compared to all other models,\. Need it back a little further west.
Interested to see if 12z euro can get deeper than it did at 0z and/or inside to the left of this surface point. just 50-100 miles would be huge. It goes from 1001 to 983 in just 3-6 hours after this.
I don’t think over. It’s unlikely sure just like any Winter weather event for us down this way. But I mean, the 18z a couple days ago shows what can happen if phase sooner & dig more. Trends as of now are in our favor. Get that thing to phase in the Eastern Gulf, and we got a chance. I think regardless we have wrap around moisture into Saturday
I really wish the wave moving through Iowa into the OV here had a little more power and dug more or the final wave moving into the lakes was west/faster/stronger. We are 2/3rds of the way to really bombing the base of the trough, closing this off, and pulling it south/west enough to really expand the precip shield west. Just not sure we can get there
exactly. same way there is a reason we don't say it is a lock to get snow when we are in the bullseye 84 hours out. a lot can and will change.
We have more than 2 days for a small couple of adjustments .. seems doable .. possibly an uphill battle but with the way models have performed recently it seems like a plausible possibility. I like that the ensembles still keep that option on the table at this range.
Euro looks good so far through hour 60, very similar to the 00z run.
Interested to see if 12z euro can get deeper than it did at 0z and/or inside to the left of this surface point. just 50-100 miles would be huge. It goes from 1001 to 983 in just 3-6 hours after this.
We need more than 50-100 miles 150-200 for us back here in the western half of the state. It’s doable but not likely
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Don’t sleep on these bands associated with the large amounts of dCVA/DPVA with the N/S trough digging in. these can drop a decent 1-2” event 
Yessir this is probably what we should be tracking vs a big coastal storm .. fun stuff especially when it gets into short range guidance Mode .. they see mesoscale features much better and this certainly looks like a dynamic set up here
Not as good as 6z though where the trough axis was more nuetral/negative at this timestamp.
Hard to believe the precip field wouldn't be a bit more expansive here, need a more negative tilt?
I don't know why, but this is intriguing to me, and I like seeing it. It makes me feel like something's up.
sheesh man those 20+ inch totals are pretty flippin close
