griteater
Member
Euro Simulated IR
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
EPS is about to be pretty telling if further south solutions are possible
packfan98
Moderator
It was a little worse than 6z for the SE from what I could tell.
packfan98
Moderator
On one hand, it seems like the writing is on the wall and this system is pretty much locked in for our latitude at least. On the other hand, this phasing setup seems pretty complex and there are always some pretty significant jumps during the 84 hours leading into a storm. Then again, big systems can lock in earlier. Who knows?
Do you have an updated CIPS map like you showed yesterday?
brendan123
Member
Strongest EPS signal I’ve seen since early January 2018 for SE Virginia, not even last week’s storm had EPS totals this high
That is still pretty impressive.
packfan98
Moderator
The current frame really has the lows lined up on the left side of the mean. The ones on the right side have a considerable spread. If the left side is right, you will get your 50 mile west shift and the .5" threshold. For the rest of us further to the west, we need the dig and phase so have some more changes in subsequent runs.
I'd let this subtle southerly trend ride out through a few more cycles until we say for certain it's locked for our latitude.
How many times would you say we've seen a modeled storm off the coast end up 50-100 miles farther west from 3 days out? It's hard for me to count them all. I mean, there never are any guarantees in the weather world, but holy cow I'd rather be asking for 75 miles west than begging for 75 miles to the east. By a loooong shot.
Good number of 980s mixed in there south of HAT, that’s a good sign towards bombo well underway at its closest approach. 50 - 75 mile shift west is well within reach inside day 3.
brendan123
Member
Unusual early confidence from Wakefield’s latest discussion, already talking about zones where warning-criteria snow could fall
“Key to the late week forecast will be when and where the nrn stream energy is able to phase with the srn stream energy ejecting out of
the sw. Models are beginning to hone in on this occuring Fri nite off the Mid Atlntc coast before strong cyclogensis occurs Sat. Model
track keeps the center off the coast but the amount of moisture getting wrapped to the west of the center still remains in question.
This to have major implications for snow amts given drier air to the west. The 12Z/25th model run suggests the greatest impacts for accumlating snowfall will be east of I95 with the potential for warning criteria amounts from the zones bordering the Ches Bay on east towards the coast. Early indications show the Delmarva having the highest amounts.”
“Key to the late week forecast will be when and where the nrn stream energy is able to phase with the srn stream energy ejecting out of
the sw. Models are beginning to hone in on this occuring Fri nite off the Mid Atlntc coast before strong cyclogensis occurs Sat. Model
track keeps the center off the coast but the amount of moisture getting wrapped to the west of the center still remains in question.
This to have major implications for snow amts given drier air to the west. The 12Z/25th model run suggests the greatest impacts for accumlating snowfall will be east of I95 with the potential for warning criteria amounts from the zones bordering the Ches Bay on east towards the coast. Early indications show the Delmarva having the highest amounts.”
packfan98
Moderator
This is one I'm going to have a hard time trying to unsee! It looks better than yesterday, I think. Makes me hopeful for a more meaningful system for those further inland at least. Thanks for posting.
I feel like I’ve seen this movie before
What I was thinking. That's an improved map from yesterday's right?
Interesting
Cary_Snow95
Member