dsaur
Member
Goofy still has some cad late in the week/weekend. That's what I'm keying on. Let it decide which batch of rain it wants to move into it.
First day of Fab Feb looking fabulous View attachment 3329
I’ve seen that 10 times this winter. Still freezing to death.First day of Fab Feb looking fabulous View attachment 3329
I don't expect any sort of prolonged torch in February but I do believe we reach upper 60's 70's at some point accross the southI’ve seen that 10 times this winter. Still freezing to death.
12 Icon was close to a nice coastal storm..
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Let the icon be right !12 Icon was close to a nice coastal storm..
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Gfs, cmc, icon and ukmet all have the same general idea next week. Lots of temp talk lol marginal events can be the best events
Exactly! The globals suck , and Long range NAM was first to pick up on the more moist threat. The Euro did well at about 3-4 days out, GFS picked it up about 1 day out , lol. Don't think next week pans out. We've lost a lot of super cold air in Canada , maybe the Midwest bomb and tstorms this early week, can pull enough down for this late week threat!There is some wow support for precip in the southeast around next Thursday and Friday. Haven't looked deep into it but it's not like it's zero. And let be real the ensembles were horrible with this last system post day 4
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That is true. Skimmed through gefs briefly and there are some that bring precip well in land with gulf lows.There is some wow support for precip in the southeast around next Thursday and Friday. Haven't looked deep into it but it's not like it's zero. And let be real the ensembles were horrible with this last system post day 4
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Without much ensemble support for a low in the Gulf tracking favorably for the Midlands of SC (with a high in the ne) throughout the entire period, I will punt the rest of January for this area in most likelihood.
If I learned anything over the past couple of events here, is Columbia just can not get a Winter Storm Warning type of event without a High in the Northeast, anchored down, while a low spawns in the Gulf of Mexico, tracking across NorthCentral Florida slightly up the coast.
There is some support for precip in the southeast around next Thursday and Friday. Haven't looked deep into it but it's not like it's zero. And lets be real the ensembles were horrible with this last system post day 4
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If anything close to that ICON verifies and produces winter, it will defy damn near every classic text book odd in publication ...Yeah right a shortwave from California can totally produce a winter storm this weak. Didn't we all just emphasize the importance of the 500 vort?
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Now the ICON is doable and truly is close. If we see some runs on other models like that and if the ICON keep showing this I may get interested if we get normal trends. It would slow down as we approach verification and also gain a positive tilt. All we needed on that run was a nice positive tilt earlier and it would have been nice.
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According to Webb, the fact it's coming into CA , is a win, and most of our best winter storms have to enter CA, now the magical cold appearance , may be harder to reason.Yeah right a shortwave from California can totally produce a winter storm this weak. Didn't we all just emphasize the importance of the 500 vort?
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Now the ICON is doable and truly is close. If we see some runs on other models like that and if the ICON keep showing this I may get interested if we get normal trends. It would slow down as we approach verification and also gain a positive tilt. All we needed on that run was a nice positive tilt earlier and it would have been nice.
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Larry, there talk and concerns of a possible cross polar vortex in February, whst do you know about that and the chances of it happening for the lower 48s. Plus - 80ish in Russian could have something to do with it?
Models are struggling with cold in the LR. Frozen meteor smoke will save us?According to Webb, the fact it's coming into CA , is a win, and most of our best winter storms have to enter CA, now the magical cold appearance , may be harder to reason.![]()
PNA is negative, MJO is way on the right, NAO is positive, AO looks like it may rise ... models struggling with cold? The eastern CONUS likely will be struggling with finding cold for a while ...Models are struggling with cold in the LR. Frozen meteor smoke will save us?
It's still there . Supression is still good, we've got to get NW trend on atleast one storm this winter, right?Not gonna happen on 18z run.
Colder tonight for you down there in Gainesville? I was hoping to hit the singles again last night but the wind kept up and prevented that.
It wouldn't shock me if Gainesville, FL, is even colder tonight than last night's 21 based on its history. With good radiational cooling conditions expected and current dewpoint, which though it will warm up some tonight, of 14, I'm betting on slightly colder there tonight....say 19-20! Looking back at some of Gainesville's coldest nights, many were the 2nd night of cold snaps because they radiate like a champ. Many areas that don't radiate well will likely be warmer tonight
I usually radiate quite well under the right conditions. Tonight the wind looks much calmer and with dews still around 9 to 10 I could see the best radiating areas getting colder than forecast tonight. Will be interesting to follow. Plus still snow on the ground to aid in that. Almost back below freezing here...made it to 35 earlier.
In all fairness , we've been hearing torch is coming since End of Dec,. So we will see if this one finally happensPNA is negative, MJO is way on the right, NAO is positive, AO looks like it may rise ... models struggling with cold? The eastern CONUS likely will be struggling with finding cold for a while ...![]()
Do you think we need to get a thread going for Severe Weather Season 2018? ...the gfs looks to be coming alive with thunderstorms.I'm laying this here saying here comes our first real severe threat. 10 days away, I'm calling it. Start the thread. It has a good setup unfortunately with mid to upper 60s and dewpoints up there as well.
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No. Monthly threads work perfect.Do you think we need to get a thread going for Severe Weather Season 2018? ...the gfs looks to be coming alive with thunderstorms.
We had one last year. I approve of one, but I'm going to ask the other staff here if we need one with this post.No. Monthly threads work perfect.