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Pattern Jarring January

Shawn said:
500mb sucks for whatever you guys were trying to look at next week. Even IF there were a more robust wave coming out of the Southern Stream and you got a stronger low in the Gulf, temperatures suck for almost everyone.
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Temps don't suck if you need rain. I'm at D2 drought status. I love rain.
 
Theres enough of a posotive tilt here to get the enrgy over Texas to close off and us take a shot at another Anafrontal snow storm. 10days out on Euro, but wouldnt that be something, twice in one season. All we have really to track beside pattern flip

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Theres enough of a posotive tilt here to get the enrgy over Texas to close off and us take a shot at another Anafrontal snow storm. 10days out on Euro, but wouldnt that be something, twice in one season. All we have really to track beside pattern flip

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png
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Would be pretty amazing to have epic cold with a couple of storms, followed by a relaxation/thaw period with a couple of storms, followed by an epic end to winter with a couple of storms.
 
To be honest, even I'm not dreading the upcoming thaw. We've had more than enough cold this month to satisfy my desire for it for now. That's not to say I want heat and humidity by any means. But some dry days with highs of near to a bit above normal 60s-70s wouldn't get any complaints from me. That's still great walking wx, is quite pleasant, and is nothing at all like summer's nastiness. But I'd rather not have 80s anytime soon.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It wouldn't be a legit threat anyway unless it first shows up on the models 5 or less days out. Next week looks like a good one to take a break and thaw out. Then we see what comes next and into February.
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Yeah except there was at least a signal before hand. There was what, one ICON run? Literally like trying to fit an elephant in a Smart Car and transport it to the circus in Hawaii with just that car. It isn't' happening. I think that the next 10 days are going to be dead in terms of wintry weather.
 
How often do you see this in this area? RH of 14%!

SAVANNAH FAIR 62 12 14

Edit: What's with "fair" dominating lately in hourly readings from various states?
 
Brick Tamland said:
This has been a great winter overall. This week's storm was pretty epic. Maybe we'll get a couple more shots before Spring.
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I’ve had to be off the board a couple days, health issues. How much snow did you end up with Brick. We got a surprising 3 1/2 inches just south of Senoia, Ga
 
GaWx said:
To be honest, even I'm not dreading the upcoming thaw. We've had more than enough cold this month to satisfy my desire for it for now. That's not to say I want heat and humidity by any means. But some dry days with highs of near to a bit above normal 60s-70s wouldn't get any complaints from me. That's still great walking wx, is quite pleasant, and is nothing at all like summer's nastiness. But I'd rather not have 80s anytime soon.
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Even with this thaw period the next couple of weeks, we're still probably going to have the occasional very brief cold snap; doesn't appear to be any extended period of torch. Even temps just averaging near to perhaps slightly above normal will feel almost spring-like compared to the recent tundra LOL
 
pcbjr said:
Gainesville 61º DP 16º RH 17%
Hey, Neighbor! :p
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Hey, neighbor! I realize Gainesville didn't overperform vs forecasts radiationally last night like I thought it would. But looking at your DP of 16 being only 4 warmer than 24 hours ago and even after realizing the DP will rise again during evening into the 20s, could y'all overperform tonight? The current temperature is 11 warmer than 24 hours ago, but the RH is 17% vs 21% 24 hours ago and there may be as good if not even better radiational cooling conditions, if the cirrus stays away, due to the Arctic high then being even more directly overhead than this morning. (I'm watching 250 mb RHs. All levels lower than that look very dry though). The NWS is forecasting 32. I've decided to double down on last night's miss and predict 29 for tomorrow morning's low. Even if today's high reaches 63 or so, Gainesville can radiate down ~34 degrees with optimal radiation. I've seen it happen. They can radiate like nobody's business.
 
GaWx said:
Hey, neighbor! I realize Gainesville didn't overperform vs forecasts radiationally last night like I thought it would. But looking at your DP of 16 being only 4 warmer than 24 hours ago and even after realizing the DP will rise again during evening into the 20s, could y'all overperform tonight? The current temperature is 11 warmer than 24 hours ago, but the RH is 17% vs 21% 24 hours ago and there may be as good if not even better radiational cooling conditions, if the cirrus stays away, due to the Arctic high then being even more directly overhead than this morning. (I'm watching 250 mb RHs. All levels lower than that look very dry though). The NWS is forecasting 32. I've decided to double down on last night's miss and predict 29 for tomorrow morning's low. Even if today's high reaches 63 or so, Gainesville can radiate down ~34 degrees with optimal radiation. I've seen it happen. They can radiate like nobody's business.
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I just told my wife that NWS is at 32º but to keep her plants in the garage another night ... 29º is my guess as well, as I told her. She said to then in that case get home from the office and get the fireplace set up ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
I just told my wife that NWS is at 32º but to keep her plants in the garage another night ... 29º is my guess as well, as I told her. She said to then in that case get home from the office and get the fireplace set up ... :cool:
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The 12Z GFS per MeteoStar only has it going down to 42! Colossal bust coming there! The 12Z Euro looks much more reasonable with 34. However, the 12Z CMC actually looks the closest imo with its 30-31.
 
wx.graphics site has this free snowfall analysis tool. Thought it was neat showing snowfall so far this winter. It looks like 99.9% of the entire SE and deep south has seen accumulating snow though mid winter. North Carolina just has a little sliver that hasn't seen 2" yet. I can't recall a winter that had 3 major deep south winter storms by mid January, truly a remarkable winter.

http://wx.graphics/models/snow/snowfall.php

snow_90d_se.png
 
Kylo said:
wx.graphics site has this free snowfall analysis tool. Thought it was neat showing snowfall so far this winter. It looks like 99.9% of the entire SE and deep south has seen accumulating snow though mid winter. North Carolina just has a little sliver that hasn't seen 2" yet. I can't recall a winter that had 3 major deep south winter storms by mid January, truly a remarkable winter.

http://wx.graphics/models/snow/snowfall.php

snow_90d_se.png
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Columbia SC SNOWHOLE!!:(:(
 
Well overall, all of us need some good precip. amount,... I'll take it in any form other than ZR.. but the watersheds almost across the entire region need it
 
gawxnative said:
Well overall, all of us need some good precip. amount,... I'll take it in any form other than ZR.. but the watersheds almost across the entire region need it
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Agree. Totally. But be careful what you pray for. E,G., Last May we were all suffering from a drought, and look what happened pretty much region-wide (except for sure in JHS's and SD's back yard); down here for a micro-example, we had over 70" for the year, the majority in June - November (an all time annual record, and too much too quickly - and remember what brought it all). Last thing we need is a repeat of Irma and her cousins to recharge the aquifer.
Off the soap box, and hoping for rain, snow (yes :)), and particularly, for no severe of any kind for anybody and everybody ... :cool:
Now, back to the end of winter ... :eek:
 
IMG_2940.PNG How about we end winter off with a good blizzard that stretches over the entire southeast with the heaviest totals across middle Georgia, Columbia and also our friends in northern Bama and turn that map completely blue. That isn't too far fetched now is it?
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
View attachment 3348 How about we end winter off with a good blizzard that stretches over the entire southeast with the heaviest totals across middle Georgia, Columbia and also our friends in northern Bama and turn that map completely blue. That isn't too far fetched now is it?
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But you know what they say, history likes to repeat itself.
 
GFS coming in hot for the 27th now! Delayed, but not denied! Cold rain for the loss
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
View attachment 3348 How about we end winter off with a good blizzard that stretches over the entire southeast with the heaviest totals across middle Georgia, Columbia and also our friends in northern Bama and turn that map completely blue. That isn't too far fetched now is it?
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You seem to be missing the top quarter of a state ... :eek:
 
Hate to say it. 0z gfs/cmc Looks like cutter city for our next few storms. But that’s ok. I think everybody was ready for a break. It was nice to walk outside at 10:15 and not that cold at all. !!:)
 
Hmm, if that s/w would kick on the Euro at the right time, there is still a possibility of something there for the TN, maybe northern AL area.

Probably won't happen, but it's something to watch.
 
tonysc said:
I'm hoping for a repeat of Feb. 2010 for us, that would definitely fill all of that grey in for SC at least, well actually from Dallas across the I-20 corridor.
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February 2010 I would probably faint... 13 inches of snow here(the greatest in Dallas history) and nobody saw it coming. School was in session that day for a dusting forecast. It never changed to rain.

I wasn't here then(was in Bama for a measley 4 inches :p) and have never heard the end of it.
 
think we got 6 inches in that storm.... it was the first snowstorm over 3 inches here since the 90s too.. if I recall correctly.
 
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