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Pattern Jarring January

Short wave is basically non existent on the GFS for that next system. That High/Northern Branch is going to absolutely crush anything that can get going in that timeframe.
 
Need a s/w entering Southern California to stay unaffected by the northern stream while, at the same time, temps are cooperating

I feel this is my only recipe for a solid snow event
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Need a s/w entering Southern California to stay unaffected by the northern stream while, at the same time, temps are cooperating

I feel this is my only recipe for a solid snow event
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And that sir, is why we get more chances in an El Nino! More active Southern Stream!
 
Shawn said:
And that sir, is why we get more chances in an El Nino! More active Southern Stream!
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When you say "we" are you referring to Central SC ? Because it seems like there have been way more chances for snow for the SE as a whole compared to a normal winter.
 
Arcc said:
No way you get a cutter with big Bertha sitting over the NE. No way you get a storm with her there either.
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Maybe my terminology wasn't right but that sw looks like it enters OR/WA and rides the Canadian border grabbing our moisture out of the gulf causing it to cut. Or maybe the two are phasing and it's not necessarily cutting. Idk i'm no met
 
SoutheastRidge said:
When you say "we" are you referring to Central SC ? Because it seems like there have been way more chances for snow for the SE as a whole compared to a normal winter.
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I mean, right now the Northern stream is dominate and it's *supposed to be* mild and dry; but we had a raging -EPO that wouldn't let go; finally looking to let go. There are always extremes.

Looks like even further on this run of the GFS the Pacific is going to flood into the continental usa and well, ew.
 
Im going to go out on a limb and say no one in the south gets snow from that look on the 19th. The rain/snow map is deceiving. We are nowhere close st H5
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Im going to go out on a limb and say no one in the south gets snow from that look on the 19th. The rain/snow map is deceiving. We are nowhere close st H5
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Residual cold air lingering at onset, but I agree overall; it'd be a big fat nothing. We are going to be waiting for a while; guys. Enjoy the warmth the next couple of days and lets see what we can get into Feb.
 
The gfs has me below freezing for 5 of 6 days staring Friday when temps go below 32. The one day it shows me above freezing during this period is Monday and only by 3-4 degrees. I was literally below freezing 7 straight days minus 2 hours during this last stretch and even then I only got up to 32.9. All the lakes still had ice on them today even though we haven’t been below freezing since Sunday morning. It will be pretty amazing if I get another 6 day stretch of below freezing temps starting not even one week later after the last one.

Edit: I want to add that this post was not an attempt to argue with anyone who is talking of a possible warm up later this month. I just thought it was pretty amazing that I could have two such streaks in one winter let alone month.
 
Please don't buy the silly 0Z Doc SE snow for 1/19-20. It is pure entertainment that far out and it is a highly unusual solution to say the least. I'd even buy the 1/17-18 stupid cold over this craziness.
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS says that the 0Z Doc's stupid cold may be not be a stupid idea as it says it may be legit.
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Bahaha, it has minimum temps 32F or lower in the 70-100%. Whew! OP isn't crazy. From these low resolution maps, looks like some are down right frigid, colder than the last event by a large margin.

This is coming just because Larry mentioned torching and warm temperatures recently.
 
If the Euro and EPS cold do verify, there is a chance there is a SE snow at least between 1/14-1/20 if the northern stream doesn't completely crush it like it has this year. Just trying to be hopeful. If you keep getting cold over and over, eventually moisture will meet up at the right time. It happens everywhere, even in the SE. @GaWx @Shawn
 
Shawn said:
Bahaha, it has minimum temps 32F or lower in the 70-100%. Whew! OP isn't crazy. From these low resolution maps, looks like some are down right frigid, colder than the last event by a large margin.

This is coming just because Larry mentioned torching and warm temperatures recently.
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The morning AFD from FFC mentions that this cold will likely be stronger and last longer than the last.. I can t remember two prolonged cold snaps so close together
 
gawxnative said:
The morning AFD from FFC mentions that this cold will likely be stronger and last longer than the last.. I can t remember two prolonged cold snaps so close together
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It's not possible to have 2 record breaking , once every 30 year , cold snaps in one winter! Can't happen! Somebody said so! ;)
 
GaWx said:
The 0Z EPS says that the 0Z Doc's stupid cold may be not be a stupid idea as it says it may be legit.
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This puzzles me. I see how we warm up, pattern wise, but for some reason ( I think Pacific) is driving the pattern and it just can't sustain the widespread warmth for long. What an interesting winter so far
 
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