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Pattern Jarring January

metwannabe said:
Down to 4 this morning, it's the 3rd single digit night. Should get to 0 tonight or very close.... I'm just about over it.

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I think one of the next 2 nights or both is very close to 0 for many with a few negative readings in the snow cover

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metwannabe said:
Down to 4 this morning, it's the 3rd single digit night. Should get to 0 tonight or very close.... I'm just about over it.
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The good news for those sick of the cold is that model consensus is strong for a major warming coming up soon. Also, looking at the GEFS teleconnections for midmonth, we're likely going to have a -PNA, +NAO, and neutral to +AO. Also, the EPS has the MJO headed toward a moderate to high amp phase 4 likely followed by phase 5, which are by far the warmest phases on average in the SE. My analog based forecast has warmer than normal dominating the SE 1/16-2/28 after a cold 12/16-1/15. Based on the above, I see no reason at this time to back down from this. So, for all practical purposes for those who are hating and complaining about this cold, you should be happy.
 
Arcc said:
Snow wise, no. Storm wise, heck yes. Some like the control really support the OP with the big ULL, others are much slower such as the member which have the ULL east of Brownsville and others just have very deep troughs over the SE. I think the chance of something in this time frame is high.
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Man, I loathe relying on a ULL and it's dynamic driven scenarios, BUT, if you can be in the right spot, it's Fireworks!
 
Before i let go of winters cold grip, also for my state as well, lets reel one more winterstorm in.
 
GaWx said:
The good news for those sick of the cold is that model consensus is strong for a major warming coming up soon. Also, looking at the GEFS teleconnections for midmonth, we're likely going to have a -PNA, +NAO, and neutral to +AO. Also, the EPS has the MJO headed toward a moderate to high amp phase 4 likely followed by phase 5, which are by far the warmest phases on average in the SE. My analog based forecast has warmer than normal dominating the SE 1/16-2/28 after a cold 12/16-1/15. Based on the above, I see no reason at this time to back down from this. So, for all practical purposes for those who are hating and complaining about this cold, you should be happy.
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Yep. Team heat is coming and likely brings winter to the end for the SE for the most part. If you don’t score on a winter storm before the 15th then your chances of scoring likely goes way down for the rest of winter...


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whatalife said:
Yep. Team heat is coming and likely brings winter to the end for the SE for the most part. If you don’t score on a winter storm before the 15th then your chances of scoring likely goes way down for the rest of winter...


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True. Someone better reel one in quick. Being that a warm up looks to be on the horizon I image before long we will need to get a Thread going for the 2018 Severe Season. Almost wonder how that could turn out with a weak Nina.
 
GaWx said:
The good news for those sick of the cold is that model consensus is strong for a major warming coming up soon. Also, looking at the GEFS teleconnections for midmonth, we're likely going to have a -PNA, +NAO, and neutral to +AO. Also, the EPS has the MJO headed toward a moderate to high amp phase 4 likely followed by phase 5, which are by far the warmest phases on average in the SE. My analog based forecast has warmer than normal dominating the SE 1/16-2/28 after a cold 12/16-1/15. Based on the above, I see no reason at this time to back down from this. So, for all practical purposes for those who are hating and complaining about this cold, you should be happy.
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Sign me in as someone that also doesn't like ULLs, even though I wouldn't be involved with this one if it were to happen. It's boom or bust with them.
 
Hate all this cold air has been wasted here and I didn't get a big storm. This week's storm just went completely around the middle of the state somehow with the good snow totals. If there aren't any big snows on the table, then I will gladly welcome the warm up.
 
Next week is going to be a very fun week. A good severe threat for us or a good snow threat for us. Maybe a threat for both across the same state.
 
GaWx said:
The good news for those sick of the cold is that model consensus is strong for a major warming coming up soon. Also, looking at the GEFS teleconnections for midmonth, we're likely going to have a -PNA, +NAO, and neutral to +AO. Also, the EPS has the MJO headed toward a moderate to high amp phase 4 likely followed by phase 5, which are by far the warmest phases on average in the SE. My analog based forecast has warmer than normal dominating the SE 1/16-2/28 after a cold 12/16-1/15. Based on the above, I see no reason at this time to back down from this. So, for all practical purposes for those who are hating and complaining about this cold, you should be happy.
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Larry first off congrats on Savannah historic snow. Ive touted on this board and the other about this Historic Cold snap we are having. Raleigh potentially set to break all time consecuive day streak below freezing as well as about to record their 3rd consecutive month Below Normal temp wise. Boone making a run at consecutive day streak below 20 degrees. I love listening to seasonal LR forecast and like most form my own opinions for what they are worth as a hobbiest. I pretty much bought into the camp that winter would be front loaded , weak La nina driving the pattern and like 2010/2011 we would flip like we did back then early to mid Jan. Looks like we get back to normal next week, dont see a torch. Do see the cold swinging over to the other side of the globe for a bit. So my question to you is seeing that the weak La Nina is on life suport, what is gonna change permanetly to prevent this pattern from returning around late Jan into Feb? I was hook line and sinker that when we get to mid Jan, its over till next year. But one thing I dont see LR is the AO leaving neutral to BN territory. So if the polar vortex doesnt wrap itself up tight over the pole then the long wave pattern is very succeptible to rolling itself right back over in 10-15 days and it will be a case of here we go again. Cant beleive the SER has not only been beating back like a rented mule, but practically its been executed this winter. Interested to hear yours are anyone elses thoughts.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Hate all this cold air has been wasted here and I didn't get a big storm. This week's storm just went completely around the middle of the state somehow with the good snow totals. If there aren't any big snows on the table, then I will gladly welcome the warm up.
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Id take 90 days of this cold even without the snow , all though I prefer it to cold.
Get enough of the guranteed 90/70 for 4 to 5 months every summer.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Hate all this cold air has been wasted here and I didn't get a big storm. This week's storm just went completely around the middle of the state somehow with the good snow totals. If there aren't any big snows on the table, then I will gladly welcome the warm up.
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The weather is going to do what it's going to do whether you welcome it or not
 
NCSNOW said:
Id take 90 days of this cold even without the snow , all though I prefer it to cold.
Get enough of the guranteed 90/70 for 4 to 5 months every summer.
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Yeah, but you could always go to the beach or a pool, do some things outside when it's warm. I just think the only good thing about cold weather is snow, so without snow it's useless and miserable.

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The weather is going to do what it's going to do whether you welcome it or not
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No crap, Sherlock.
 
FYI: JB says east Thaws, upper midwest really doesnt, then both are Cold February
 
Looks like there are a few active GEFS Members for wintry weather for the Mid-south region between the 10th and 15th. E4 would be amazing.
 
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