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Pattern Jarring January

Epic winter so far. The local meteorologist have to kicking themselves from the November warm winter outlooks and now 2 missed snow forecasts lol. Anxious to see what February throws at all of us! I don’t think it’s over yet.


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Speaking of winter, how much snow fell in Bham? If any did I guess we can say it now can snow after a major early December snow in Birmingham.


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Speaking of winter, how much snow fell in Bham? If any did I guess we can say it now can snow after a major early December snow in Birmingham.


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I think Birmingham got no more than a dusting if that unfortunately. Seems that area didn't benefit from the strengthening 250mb jetstreak that occured over GA.
 
The 6z GFS is beautiful knowing how the northern stream has been modeled so far this winter. Also for the first time both EPS and GEFS showing reflections of the same general setup. Getting more legit that we may have something in the time frame.
 
The 6z GFS is beautiful knowing how the northern stream has been modeled so far this winter. Also for the first time both EPS and GEFS showing reflections of the same general setup. Getting more legit that we may have something in the time frame.
Bring it
 
I looked at the 6z gefs a bit ago, interestingly enough some of the frames does have the low much further north inland. Just temp issues, but not far off. So we can work on that. I haven't looked at the EPS yet.
 
I looked at the 6z gefs a bit ago, interestingly enough some of the frames does have the low much further north inland. Just temp issues, but not far off. So we can work on that. I haven't looked at the EPS yet.
It's warm, but from the city charts, at least a few have some snow up here, so that means there is a 2% chance this becomes something lol. I just want a break.
 
I think Birmingham got no more than a dusting if that unfortunately. Seems that area didn't benefit from the strengthening 250mb jetstreak that occured over GA.
Some places a little more but in general that's correct. We were fighting dry air all day

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We're due for a Miller A. I have a feeling an early Februry torch might get some big time instability in the gulf and we might see a boom here in the next month. Definately need some blocking though. Stay tuned
 
Lol I don't expect this 25th thing to come to fruition. The pattern is going to warm and wet and I'm fine with it. I want to not have a threat for a week surprisingly. It's exhausting tracking potential for an entire month.
Well, FS, you've got the CPC and JB on your train ... :confused:

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Can't wait for vengeful mid February! If that's off by a week or two , we are into marvelous March, and we know how good that works out !? It's been a far better winter than most , if not all, thought! So let's just enjoy the weather we will have for the next month, cause winters over!
 
Can't wait for vengeful mid February! If that's off by a week or two , we are into marvelous March, and we know how good that works out !? It's been a far better winter than most , if not all, thought! So let's just enjoy the weather we will have for the next month, cause winters over!
I dont think winter is over yet
 
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Might be something to watch if we have any kind of cold air to tap.
 
Just looking at the satellite Imagery this morning..Noticed the nice little swirl coming out of old Mexico. I know according to the models it is waaaaayyyy too weak to manifest into winter weather, but the track is good for the South east. If only it could intensify enough to be a cold core Low.
20180181652_GOES16-ABI-sr-09-600x600.jpg
 
Just looking at the satellite Imagery this morning..Noticed the nice little swirl coming out of old Mexico. I know according to the models it is waaaaayyyy too weak to manifest into winter weather, but the track is good for the South east. If only it could intensify enough to be a cold core Low.
20180181652_GOES16-ABI-sr-09-600x600.jpg
Yeah very interesting
 
I think Birmingham got no more than a dusting if that unfortunately. Seems that area didn't benefit from the strengthening 250mb jetstreak that occured over GA.
Speaking specifically IMBY. So true, I'm not complaining....but then again, maybe I will. The early December snow was great and all (got about an inch) but it was gone fast (2-3) hours and never messed up the roads. This last one well, the RSSS was in full effect from NE Jefferson County to Tuscaloosa County. Both storms were big producers to my South and Southeast. It's time for this area to be hit with a 2 or 3 inch Plus storm. I'm going to be selfish about it. ;) So if you're in Alabama and you are South or Southeast of me, you don't get anymore snow until I get mines, you dig? :D
 
Winner! Tony got it exactly right: 5 (excluding this winter obviously) back to 1890. Hmmm, maybe you have an abacus yourself? What do you win? An all expense paid trip for 2 (thanks to southernwx), via a plane on 24/7 standby, to a location that just received 4"+ of sleet. A new sled will be provided by southernwx at the location. So, you won't need to bring or rent one!

If I were to go back to the 1880s, I'd actually find a total of 6 additional winters with at least two 2"+ SN/IP events:

2017-8: DJ (weak/moderate La Nina)
2013-4: JF (cold neutral)
1935-6: JF (warm neutral)
1929-30: DJ (warm neutral)
1898-9: JF (cold neutral to weak La Nina)
1894-5: FF (weak La Nina)
1884-5: JFF (yes, 3 that winter) (weak El Nino)

Note the clumps they are all in.

By the way, 2017-8 has the honor of having the earliest 2nd 2"+ event, 1/16-7. Prior to this, the earliest was 1/29 (winter of 1929-30).
Thanks, Larry! I'm really stoked for my trip to sleet :) The moles are already wearing ski jackets with the SouthernWx logo. I haven't found a woman yet, who wants to go out at 1am and sled down county roads in 20 mph wind and 22 degrees on a mystery sleet trip, my ex was a real sport that way, but I haven't looked real hard yet, waiting to see if this is one of your sly tricks, lol.
I think it's worth noting that only two of those winters was cold, until this one...which is some 14 degrees below normal, as I understand it....and would take a violent swerve in the opposite direction to turn hotter than average, Normal, or warm winters can product. It's getting water into the cold air, that always comes, that counts.
 
Here is the 0z FV3 snowfall output fwiw for that time frame Kylo posted. Temps marginal right now but worth monitoring being 5-7 days out for sure.
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