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Pattern Jarring January

SoutheastRidge said:
We just need one more storm to help our friends out in Central SC and maybe a few folks elsewhere and then we can call this the greatest winter ever. When everyone is polled at the end of this winter, I want everyone to give it an A+.
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still gotta get a real snow in Dallas among other places or I aint giving it anywhere close to an A. :p
 
This is the look you want to see snow in central South Carolina.
 

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J.C. said:
This is the look you want to see snow in central South Carolina.
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Concur. But, like I stated it's not the only look. Other than a few skewed years of locales, I surmise Columbia may have a neck up on your area when it comes to snow.
 
dsaur said:
Well, Goofy has a pretty good cad with moisture moving underneath the end of next week. Might bear watching..though I'd much prefer a good sleet storm :).
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Yep happy hour Goofy next week.
Fwiw the 12 euro also had s/w dive down into southern plains and move east with moisture surpressed to Gulf.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180-204.gif gfs_z500_vort_us_31.png index.png
 
ColaSnow said:
Concur. But, like I stated it's not the only look. Other than a few skewed years of locales, I surmise Columbia may have a neck up on your area when it comes to snow.
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I tried finding some data last night, but its almost impossible. The most common number I could find was for the Atlanta airport was 2.9" annually, 1.5" for CAE annually, but don't hold me to it. Both of those numbers are meager really.

It would probably take me contacting the NWS to get numbers for Marietta, which should be slightly more than KATL.

This belongs in banter, so any further posts about this I'll put in there instead.
 
Going back to what I posted yesterday ... This has been an unusual, if not strange winter given Nina and other factors; we've been blessed with favorable MJO, a good PNA and a not too bad AO by and large. For the next while, none of those are favorable except the AO, which standing alone is not going to return winter. It's likely going to "warm" for a couple weeks +/-; but, if (if) the MJO goes into the circle and left (which is a decent possibility) and if the PNA trends downward to negative territory (which looks reasonable but not certain at this time), we might stand a very decent shot one more time. It's a "stay tuned" proposition at this point ... IMHO ... o_O
 
SoutheastRidge said:
A winter as great as this one has to have a grand finale. But how do we top what we've already seen ?
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Well, I got between an inch to 2 inches of snow that's half gone now, so I still need to get my sled fix. How about getting 4 inches of sleet for Tony? Last night was the most of anything I've had since the spring ull's, what was that? 2010? So it never got above 25 here today, and still most of the snow melted already, well half anyway. Sleet sticks around, and sticks around, and three nights later I'm still sledding after midnight. So...let's get Tony some sleet!!! If everyone has had enough in their yard, of course, lol. T
 
Someone posted this on another random forum with a weather section. It shows what the heights have looked like for winter storms in the south so far this winter.

aajmqan.jpg


I didn't realize just how far southwest the SW dug in the early December storm. I think the Atlanta area in particular seems to benefit from pos. tilted troughs moreso than neutral or negative tilted troughs.
 
pcbjr said:
Going back to what I posted yesterday ... This has been an unusual, if not strange winter given Nina and other factors; we've been blessed with favorable MJO, a good PNA and a not too bad AO by and large. For the next while, none of those are favorable except the AO, which standing alone is not going to return winter. It's likely going to "warm" for a couple weeks +/-; but, if (if) the MJO goes into the circle and left (which is a decent possibility) and if the PNA trends downward to negative territory (which looks reasonable but not certain at this time), we might stand a very decent shot one more time. It's a "stay tuned" proposition at this point ... IMHO ... o_O
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Phil, I've seen some of my best storms during "normal" winters, so even if things go back to average, there are still good chances until Easter :)
 
dsaur said:
Phil, I've seen some of my best storms during "normal" winters, so even if things go back to average, there are still good chances until Easter :)
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Tony, I've seen more "Tony precip" down here in Feb when things are transitioning than any December and January combined ... Just need to watch for some help and avoid a raging fire hose beating into a SE torch ...
 
pcbjr said:
Tony, I've seen more "Tony precip" down here in Feb when things are transitioning than any December and January combined ... Just need to watch for some help and avoid a raging fire hose beating into a SE torch ...
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I agree, my friend. The one thing that frozen shies away from is a burning dumpster :) But in all my years, even above average ones I've never seen one where it didn't get to freezing. Of course Mr. Abacus might show me I'm wrong, but I'm betting he won't, lol.
 
I'd like to supplement a post from about 45 minutes ago, and add this to the mix as to what to watch for rolling forward into Feb ...

Screen Shot 2018-01-17 at 6.37.06 PM.png
 
Lol, I say we just take a week and relax in the warmth, get some sleep, and get back a week from now to see how things are. I'm rooting for a good heavy rain if we can get it while it's warm. Let's get ready for Feburnuary or whatever you want to call it.
 
This winter kinda has remind me of the 2014 winter. Where there was a small event in January then thenbig dog in February.
 
Arcc said:
Well it's thread the needle, but it's plausible. The key to watch is the low over the NE and it's position and strength.

500h_anom.na.png
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It feels like anything is plausible with the way this winter is turning out and the warmth this year doesn’t stick around very long when it does show up.


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whatalife said:
It feels like anything is plausible with the way this winter is turning out and the warmth this year doesn’t stick around very long when it does show up.


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I had 9-10" in early December and a dagum clipper that dropped 1.5" of pure powder. You bet it is.
 
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