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Pattern Jarring January

MichaelJ said:
Just don't think the temps will be cold enough even if we do get some wedging, and that is ok with me as I enjoy my power and hate zr
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The models all say temps will be plenty cold, and they often underestimate the strength of cold in CAD events
 
ForsythSnow said:
So no ensemble supports ice for CAD regions? If that's true I'm glad I didn't start a thread. If not, it's going up tomorrow model dependent.
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You'd have to look more into it for your areas, but I didn't see much of an "obvious sign" outside the mountains. From what I gather, its more of a start as potential ZR for some areas at best and over to rain.
 
From lookout

“yeah i think this one has real potential. This is a pretty good setup for it to over perform and hang on a while.. Despite the cold source being cutoff and latent heat release, looking at gfs soundings the cold pool would be deep enough and cold enough to result in a prolonged period of subfreezing temps....long enough for some likely good accumulations. The good news is that this one likely won't get squashed by the pattern unlike the last few systems/potential systems. It seems the biggest chance of a bust would be if it is slower/further north and comes in later monday to give temps time to moderate. But this mornings runs are a bit quicker and further south...and overall there is very good agreement.

temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs are more than cold enough. new 12z euro is absurd with it's dewpoints.....0 to -5F over ga 0z monday and -5 to -15 over the carolinas. euro starts everyone off in the 20s prior to precip arrival. euro is dropping 0.6 over nc to nearly an inch over north ga”
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
From lookout

“yeah i think this one has real potential. This is a pretty good setup for it to over perform and hang on a while.. Despite the cold source being cutoff and latent heat release, looking at gfs soundings the cold pool would be deep enough and cold enough to result in a prolonged period of subfreezing temps....long enough for some likely good accumulations. The good news is that this one likely won't get squashed by the pattern unlike the last few systems/potential systems. It seems the biggest chance of a bust would be if it is slower/further north and comes in later monday to give temps time to moderate. But this mornings runs are a bit quicker and further south...and overall there is very good agreement.

temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs are more than cold enough. new 12z euro is absurd with it's dewpoints.....0 to -5F over ga 0z monday and -5 to -15 over the carolinas. euro starts everyone off in the 20s prior to precip arrival. euro is dropping 0.6 over nc to nearly an inch over north ga”
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He's pretty good with this stuff. So can't throw that idea out, of course.
 
This does look interesting from the 12z GFS right as precipitation is starting up:

GFSMA_sfc_dewp_120.png
 
Using another data source, I see that there is also ensemble support from the 12z GEFS. Whoops. Disregard my previous posts about no support/tossing it.

Canadian is even scarier.


GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_120.png
 
Shawn said:
Using another data source, I see that there is also ensemble support from the 12z GEFS. Whoops. Disregard my previous posts about no support/tossing it.

Canadian is even scarier.


GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_120.png
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Yikes. Say I'm too early, but I'm going to go ahead and start a thread. Maybe it'll kill the ice.
 
FFC already fretting about it in the AFD:

By Sunday night, a wedge has formed
across NE portions of the forecast area. The wedge may end up
creating a wintry precip situation Sunday night into early Monday.
The cold temps at the surface within the wedge combined with the
warmer temps aloft will create the potential for freezing rain.
However, this is still 5 days out and the wintry precip potential
will be highly dependent upon the strength/position of the wedge.
The forecast will likely change.
 
Could this stretch all the way to Macon as I'm in Jones County just to the North of there? Could we also see snow or sleet instead of Ice
 
Ron Burgundy said:
FFC already fretting about it in the AFD:

By Sunday night, a wedge has formed
across NE portions of the forecast area. The wedge may end up
creating a wintry precip situation Sunday night into early Monday.
The cold temps at the surface within the wedge combined with the
warmer temps aloft will create the potential for freezing rain.
However, this is still 5 days out and the wintry precip potential
will be highly dependent upon the strength/position of the wedge.
The forecast will likely change.
Click to expand...
Well as much as I am a fan of winter weather.. I would NOT want this on anyone... From my quick look at precip amounts..looks like in the 1-1.25 inch range and with the primary by far being ZR it would be a cripplining Ice Storm .. and for it to be on CFP day with Bama vs GA in ATL... make me wonder who at Ohio State is hacking the models...LOL
 
18z gfs says hold off on that thread and then start looking 10 days out again. This has been a very frustrating pattern. 2 solid week of very cold weather and zip for moisture. Verga almost made it here today... I was having fu
n looking at Hilton head webcams though.:weenie:
 
There are two systems to be watching for imo. The one this Sunday/Monday and then possibly next Thursday/Fridayish. But we’ll see...


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