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Pattern Jarring January
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
I've been seeing these maps since November. Hasn't materialized yet, but hey keep throwing out AN maps and they will no doubt be right eventually
pcbjr
Member
A+
You missed the point, completely ...
And still got the right answer ...
LOL ...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Is what I pinpointed before we started to try to chase the clipper/interaction with the gulf/late bloomer thing back?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
That little bowling ball looks so weird with a high pressure right on it, lol...
Top is our current 1/16 event 168 hours out.
Bottom is the next event (bowling ball)
Wave placement looks very similar
Surprisingly didn’t make it above freezing here today. Clouds hung on all day for the most part.
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0z Euro showing more cold after the brief warm up post-epic arctic front 17th/18th... Jan is likely gonna wind up big time BN.
olhausen
Member
Euro and gfs not even close with my low temps tonight. Euro had me at a low of 12 and I’m at 3.2 degrees at 1:00am. Probably going below zero as the temp has fallen a few degrees in the last hour.
Where are these flurries coming from tonight? Lol.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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0 wintry precip on 6z GFS through the whole run, after the Tue/Wed flurries
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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JB says torch is coming for East. Says last 12 days of Jan , will be so warm in NYC, they will barely finish the month 1 degree below normal
I would take the rain. Drought hasn't gotten any better over the winter. Rolling into spring and summer with D1 drought won't end well
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah, this is just getting ugly. We've all been watching for snow we forgot that we are actually doing bad on overall precipitation. Georgia went from having no drought to almost everyone in a matter of a couple of months.
Storm5
Member
A disturbance swinging through .
Where are these flurries coming from tonight? Lol.
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JHS
Member
That is one reason I say this summer will be really hot. Having a drought and a LaNina pattern together means very hot weather in the summer. The year I'm thinking this summer will be like is 1999. That also means winter is probably over for most of us after this week. A warm February is almost certain here in the southeast.Yeah, this is just getting ugly. We've all been watching for snow we forgot that we are actually doing bad on overall precipitation. Georgia went from having no drought to almost everyone in a matter of a couple of months.
JHS
Member
Yeah this needs to be gone in a hurry. Drought is one of the reasons I think someone hits 110 this summer. Only a spot or 2 though. The 3 day heat wave the week before the July 4 holiday in 2012 comes to mind.
Yeah it's deceiving with winter systems, often times they are very light events... even the coastal last week that brought the snow was meager liquid equivalent amounts. And with the cold, frozen ground, then some snow (of course we got some decent rain the other night) but it looks like it extremely wet when as FS showed with his u.s. drought monitor post, it's anything but...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The 0z EPS still didn't really seem to buy much more than a brief warm up then temps hang around slightly above average for the rest of the period.
Just looked at radar. Is it actually snowing in NW Mississippi?
Natedogg25
Member
Looks like decent sized area , if it holds together
pcbjr
Member
Simply an observation ...
Looking at the CPC Super Ensemble daily, it's been trending warmer the past few days (AN probability looking out 11); today, interestingly, the probabilities are lessened. May be worth noting ...
Additionally, though still negative, the PNA is rising towards positive by late in the month and the NAO is going south ...
and the AO is giving some great signs ...
Not a forecast, but something worth monitoring ...
Now, let's see if the MJO can get inside the circle and hang a left ... which a few secondary models are at least suggesting might happen ...
Looking at the CPC Super Ensemble daily, it's been trending warmer the past few days (AN probability looking out 11); today, interestingly, the probabilities are lessened. May be worth noting ...
Additionally, though still negative, the PNA is rising towards positive by late in the month and the NAO is going south ...
and the AO is giving some great signs ...
Not a forecast, but something worth monitoring ...
Now, let's see if the MJO can get inside the circle and hang a left ... which a few secondary models are at least suggesting might happen ...
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The forecast for 18Z on Monday is for a 1056 SLP on the 12Z GFS and a 1055 on the 18Z NAM for the MT/ND border. The record high for this area in January is only a little higher (~1057). So, this is no run of the mill January Arctic high by any means!
Edit: Map of January record high SLP:
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/JanuaryRecordHighSLPs.gif
Edit: Map of January record high SLP:
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/JanuaryRecordHighSLPs.gif
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pcbjr
Member
Let's see where it goes, should it occur!
Larry, You've been all over these before, so you have interest piqued ...
Best!
Phil
Does anyone know how high the SLP got for the ND/MT border early this month? The map of January record high highs likely doesn't yet include 2018. I just want to make sure a higher record January SLP wasn't set then.
OK, I just got the scoop. First of all, i was told that earlier month highest SLPs were nowhere near record January highs. The models way overdid the pressures as they often do. So, that means the highest SLPs showing up on the linked map are still the highest on record for January:
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/JanuaryRecordHighSLPs.gif
The highest on record for any of ND in January is 1056.9 at Williston set on 1/7/2015. The 12Z GFS had 1056 for 18Z tomorrow but the 18Z GFS has 1057! I know to normally not believe the insane SLPs of any of the major models but two things should be kept in mind:
1. This is now only 24 hours out
2. It has been rising rather than the normal falling with each GFS run as of 18Z tomorrow(past runs' data from TT site):
18Z Sun run: 1057
12Z Sun run: 1056
6Z Sun run: 1055
0Z Sun run: 1055
18Z Sat run: 1055
12Z Sat run: 1054
6Z Sat run: 1054
0Z sat run: 1053
So, I'm not at all eliminating the possibility that a new January ND record will barely be reached.
By the way, the last few ICON runs have been pretty steady with 1054-55. So, perhaps 1055, still almost a record, is more likely for 18Z tomorrow. My eyes will be closely watching SLPs at Williston tomorrow late morning til around noon CST!
By the way, 1057 mb is a whopping 31.21"!!
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Xtreme Weather
Member
Pretty interesting to see this vort moving through the SE currently... Supposed to be dead already noticing KNQA radar lighting up again as well see no ground truth as of yet but just starting ramping up at least off the surface... There is ground truth in E central MS though
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Followup: I've decided that despite the trend upward on the GFS to 1057 and the ICON being rock steady at 1054-55, the actual highest ND SLP is likely going to verify much lower than even the 1055. The reason? Check out current SLPs in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The highest I could find is only 1041 mb and most others are 1037 or lower. Now, compare that to what the GFS and ICON have for about now for the highest in Alb/Sas: 1047 mb! That tells me that the GFS/ICON are ~6 mb too high. Based on this, I'm now predicting that the highest ND SLP in Williston tomorrow will "only" be near 1050 mb or nowhere near a record.
How can the models be so far off this close?!?
And could this mean that the modeling for the SE snow threat is going to end up off a good bit? (bad or good or whatever)
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS is trending towards a severe weather outbreak in the southern Plains, Arklatex, & lower MS valley about 7-8 days from now. Looks like this ridge in the eastern US will verify... It's going to be that time of the year again before you know it especially in MS & AL
ForsythSnow
Moderator
At this point, I don't know it it's going to verify. We will look at this again let's say Wednesday and compare. I don't trust it quite yet.
pcbjr
Member
Webb,
If you say so, it's going to the bank. But bad money, nonetheless ...
Your Curmudgeon
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The other few eastern US ridges that didn't verify began to trend favorably for a trough over the eastern US by this stage in the game, this looks much different already.
Webb,
What do you think about the current SLPs being way too high on all of the models from Alberta and Saskatchewan into the northern Rockies/Plains vs reality? Is that a normal thing and what does this portend for the next few days as regards the models since they all have way too high a SLP vs reality.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Hmmm I looked at the EPS and it definitely looks like we'll see an eastern ridge soon but it also looks progressive to me...? Not saying it will be but objectively it looks progressive. Eastern ridge for a few days and then kinda zonal like.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Noticing ground truth starting to come in via mping now back in AR... Interesting