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Pattern Jarring January

Eh, its probably a better run so far. Sharper in areas, weaker in others, but backend energy is better. Might not suck!

We grasping at straws for changes, basically, but not bad so far.. prob better if idea keeps up
 
still looking about the same H5 might be a little north vs 12z, but qpf looks about the same so far. 00z wed
 
Guys take a look at that little wave coming out of the Southern Branch. That is something to watch. While it's not much now, it can be a big deal later.
 
That little Southern Branch energy I speak of, gets sheard/squashed out ahead of the main NB push.. but its something to keep an eye on. Think of it as a mesoscale feature at 500mb.
 
Its not as deep/amped one could say vs 12z. But it's still going to give snow to the SE. Lets see what happens for the Carolinas.
 
Jason Simpson was saying on tonight Facebook live you could expect 20:1 or 30:1 snow ratio considering the type of setup this is.
 
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qpf is a little less overall this run, not by much but a little bit...The H5 trof was not as sharp, or dug as much, but it was pretty close to the 12z run...
 
deltadog03 said:
qpf is a little less overall this run, not by much but a little bit...The H5 trof was not as sharp, or dug as much, but it was pretty close to the 12z run...
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I am supposing you have the run earlier; but that is a good sign that it was not drastically different. You guys go ahead and push the thread.
 
Shawn said:
I am supposing you have the run earlier; but that is a good sign that it was not drastically different. You guys go ahead and push the thread.
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I do, it doesn't seem to be that much less qpf....it is a little, but not much at all.
 
Shawn said:
Those numbers sound like higher elevation/ TN area. Really, 20-30?
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Yea. Saying that for north Alabama. Said the temperature was going to be like 26 degrees. When it started snowing and then falling in the uppers teens when it was finished.
 
Okay, there is a change for amounts in Northern SC and other parts like Southern AL, but its basically the same. while h5 is a bit different; its not a drastic change versus 12z like what we saw from the 00z GFS/GEFS.
 
JLL1973 said:
I'll take an inch or so. Its about as good as you will get from a clipper
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The trough orientation promotes a SW flow, add to that the jet dynamics. There will be plenty of lift . This isn't a typical clipper setup . Its not a big dog setup but one that can easily squeeze out 1-2 inches , 3 in spots. Will temps in the 20s it would cause huge problems

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Storm5 said:
The trough orientation promotes a SW flow, add to that the jet dynamics. There will be plenty of lift . This isn't a typical clipper setup . Its not a big dog setup but one that can easily squeeze out 1-2 inches , 3 in spots. Will temps in the 20s it would cause huge problems

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No doubt the ratios will not be 10:1
 
deltadog03 said:
No doubt the ratios will not be 10:1
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Shawn said:
Okay, there is a change for amounts in Northern SC and other parts like Southern AL, but its basically the same. while h5 is a bit different; its not a drastic change versus 12z like what we saw from the 00z GFS/GEFS.
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So I guess warm nose still for Central South Carolina.
 
Positive long range thoughts from OHX this morning:


Looking ahead, there will be a warmup late week as the upper air
pattern becomes less amplified and more wavy. Temps could push
toward 60 next Saturday, before crashing down again with the next
cold shot a day or 2 later. Indices such as the Arctic
Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are trending downward
for late January, indicating at least the potential for continuing
cold air outbreaks. It looks like we could have a lot of winter
to deal with yet.
 
Storm5 said:
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One thing to note. Ratios will be awesome with this setup. Especially the further north you go. I think if this works out as modeled Tennessee ratios will be much higher than 10/1 so clown maps are underdone.
 
NWTNWX said:
One thing to note. Ratios will be awesome with this setup. Especially the further north you go. I think if this works out as modeled Tennessee ratios will be much higher than 10/1 so clown maps are underdone.
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correct, most of these maps are 10:1, and it may be double or more
 
tennessee storm said:
NWS memphis already calling for 1 to 2 inches monday night into tuesday morning... said if euro is correct possible even more than that here... i already have 5 inches ... still cant get out of my steep driveway... to much sleet under this snow makes it very slick...
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Lucky....pics?

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tennessee storm said:
NWS memphis already calling for 1 to 2 inches monday night into tuesday morning... said if euro is correct possible even more than that here... i already have 5 inches ... still cant get out of my steep driveway... to much sleet under this snow makes it very slick...
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You should get some melting on Mon with sunshine and temps in the 40s.
 
FWIW (not that it means much) but the 18z GFS and 12z EPS are not even close in deciding what to do in the long range. GFS is warm, EPS is kind of around average.

Of course it's the 18z GFS and maybe I'll just use Larry's "let's pitch it if it doesn't look good".
 
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