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Pattern Jarring January

GaWx said:
Webb,
What do you think about the current SLPs being way too high on all of the models from Alberta and Saskatchewan into the northern Rockies/Plains vs reality? Is that a normal thing and what does this portend for the next few days as regards the models since they all have way too high a SLP vs reality.
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The higher SLP values vs reality is related to cold air advection on the backside of the upper level trough over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Low-mid level cold air advection leads to sinking air and thus higher MSLP values and vis versa, thus the cold push isn't as stout as modeled... It's pretty normal to see this on the CMC & GFS because their surface parameterization schemes (the GFS using the Monin-Obukhov (1954) scheme I described in detail several weeks ago) decouple the surface from the low-levels too quickly especially over areas w/ snow cover which leads to overzealous 2mT forecasts, resulting in MSLP values that are too high.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The higher SLP values vs reality is related to cold air advection on the backside of the upper level trough over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Low-mid level cold air advection leads to sinking air and thus higher MSLP values and vis versa, thus the cold push isn't as stout as modeled... It's pretty normal to see this on the CMC & GFS because their surface parameterization schemes (the GFS using the Monin-Obukhov (1954) scheme I described in detail several weeks ago) decouple the surface from the low-levels too quickly especially over areas w/ snow cover which leads to overzealous 2mT forecasts, resulting in MSLP values that are too high.
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Thanks, Webb. I don't know if you looked but even the Euro/EPS, NAM, and the ICON ALL have way too high SLPs. For example, they have Ft. McMurray, Alberta, at 1047-48 mb as of now (0Z) and it is in reality only at 1042.
 
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Probably not reaching the ground but

southeast_loop.gif
 
This is another classic case of the circumpolar vortex expanding over longitudes of active convection in the tropics. MJO pulse in the Maritime Continent and what do ya know a huge cold surge comes down into Siberia and East Asia. This cold surge is only going to reinforce the MJO there...
Screen Shot 2018-01-14 at 7.44.40 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The higher SLP values vs reality is related to cold air advection on the backside of the upper level trough over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Low-mid level cold air advection leads to sinking air and thus higher MSLP values and vis versa, thus the cold push isn't as stout as modeled... It's pretty normal to see this on the CMC & GFS because their surface parameterization schemes (the GFS using the Monin-Obukhov (1954) scheme I described in detail several weeks ago) decouple the surface from the low-levels too quickly especially over areas w/ snow cover which leads to overzealous 2mT forecasts, resulting in MSLP values that are too high.
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Would this problem also allow ALL of the models and their respective ensemble members to significantly overdo the pressure (by ~7 mb) even at initialization?? I ask because that's literally what is happening. 0Z initializations all have a high center in Alberta/Saskatchewan of ~1049 whereas reality says it was only near 1042 at 0Z or 5 PM MST.

As of hour 6 of the 0Z models or 6Z/1 AM EST/11 PM MST, the highest Sask. SLP was progged to be near 1052 near Prince Albert. However, the actual Prince Albert 11 PM MST pressure was only up to 1045, meaning the models were all about 7 mb too high (or ~0.21") at hour 6!! That seems absurdly high to me.

Edit at 1:59 AM EST: So, despite model progged near record high SLPs of near 1056 mb at Williston at 18Z today, I'm projecting it will then be only 1049 mb.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
A long ways out, but it wouldn't surprise me to have more shots at storms this month. This reminds me a lot of Jan 2000 when we had a few threats and some small snow storms during the month, some warm ups, and then the big one at the end of January.
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I wanna say Jan 2000 was also the back to back ice storms in Atlanta yeah?


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GaWx said:
Would this problem also allow ALL of the models and their respective ensemble members to significantly overdo the pressure (by ~7 mb) even at initialization?? I ask because that's literally what is happening. 0Z initializations all have a high center in Alberta/Saskatchewan of ~1049 whereas reality says it was only near 1042 at 0Z or 5 PM MST.

As of hour 6 of the 0Z models or 6Z/1 AM EST/11 PM MST, the highest Sask. SLP was progged to be near 1052 near Prince Albert. However, the actual Prince Albert 11 PM MST pressure was only up to 1045, meaning the models were all about 7 mb too high (or ~0.21") at hour 6!! That seems absurdly high to me.

Edit at 1:59 AM EST: So, despite model progged near record high SLPs of near 1056 mb at Williston at 18Z today, I'm projecting it will then be only 1049 mb.
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Verification: Williston, ND, at 18Z today (1 PM EST) was at 30.90", which is only 1046.4 mb. The highest at any reporting station in ND, SD, MT, Alberta, or Sask. was only 1047 mb! So, a bust of 8-10 mb too high from the models. What gets me more is that even the initializations were similarly 8-10 mb too high. Why are the models, including the best ones, doing so poorly?

WILLISTON FAIR -8 -18 61 N7 30.90R WCI -23
 
GaWx said:
Verification: Williston, ND, at 18Z today (1 PM EST) was at 30.90", which is only 1046.4 mb. The highest at any reporting station in ND, SD, MT, Alberta, or Sask. was only 1047 mb! So, a bust of 8-10 mb too high from the models. What gets me more is that even the initializations were similarly 8-10 mb too high. Why are the models, including the best ones, doing so poorly?

WILLISTON FAIR -8 -18 61 N7 30.90R WCI -23
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Posted below is the next hour (2 PM EST/19Z). You can see that Wiiliston, now at 30.89", has topped out as have other nearby areas with the highest now 30.90". So, in summary, this was a 1047 high being modeled as a 1056 at hour 6 (about 0.27" too high) and with initializations of all of the models also way too high. Awful! Can't they do better than this?

WILLISTON FAIR -5 -17 56 CALM 30.89F

Edit: I just learned that the hourly city by city readings are altimeter readings rather than SLPs. So, made the wrong assumption. Therefore, whereas altimeter readings have been, as shown, in the 30.89-90" range, the highest Williston SLP was actually 31.10"/1053.1 mb, which was at 13Z and slightly lower at 12Z. This still was 3 mb lower than models had but wasn't as far off as I thought.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The EPS is trending towards a severe weather outbreak in the southern Plains, Arklatex, & lower MS valley about 7-8 days from now. Looks like this ridge in the eastern US will verify... It's going to be that time of the year again before you know it especially in MS & AL
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good point... had my eye on this myself... hoping parts tennesse valley sneak in on this... climo wise midsouth does good with severe outbreaks during la nina winters
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS is trending towards a severe weather outbreak in the southern Plains, Arklatex, & lower MS valley about 7-8 days from now. Looks like this ridge in the eastern US will verify... It's going to be that time of the year again before you know it especially in MS & AL
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todays 12z euro holds serve... on severe set up pretty darn good one too... defintely high shear event for favored places cross western parts of the south
 
Looking ahead to the end of the month and then beyond, the MJO is not showing anything worth a hoot, but three of our key indicies look to be coming around a bit ... worth keeping an eye on moving forward ...

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pcbjr said:
Looking ahead to the end of the month and then beyond, the MJO is not showing anything worth a hoot, but three of our key indicies look to be coming around a bit ... worth keeping an eye on moving forward ...

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thats being brought on by the big system the euro is advertsing... interesting
 
Looks like we will warm up a bit after this transient cold blast. The warmer and above normal temps look like they will persist through the end of the month, then we may have a shot at reloading in early February. The MJO has to pass though the phases, and seems to hover close to or goes into the COD as it passes through phases 4, 5, and 6. It reaches 7 on many forecasts around the end of January. Once we circle around again and get into favorable phases, let's get a good ridge out west and a good cold source and we should be able to bring it around again for another system. Until then, enjoy the warm and wetter weather!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like we will warm up a bit after this transient cold blast. The warmer and above normal temps look like they will persist through the end of the month, then we may have a shot at reloading in early February. The MJO has to pass though the phases, and seems to hover close to or goes into the COD as it passes through phases 4, 5, and 6. It reaches 7 on many forecasts around the end of January. Once we circle around again and get into favorable phases, let's get a good ridge out west and a good cold source and we should be able to bring it around again for another system. Until then, enjoy the warm and wetter weather!
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Looking at last night's EPS and GEFS, I wouldn't be surprised to see that end month setup get colder based on how the models have did so far.

I would like to know the last time we had two storms hit all the state coasts in the south in the same year.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like we will warm up a bit after this transient cold blast. The warmer and above normal temps look like they will persist through the end of the month, then we may have a shot at reloading in early February. The MJO has to pass though the phases, and seems to hover close to or goes into the COD as it passes through phases 4, 5, and 6. It reaches 7 on many forecasts around the end of January. Once we circle around again and get into favorable phases, let's get a good ridge out west and a good cold source and we should be able to bring it around again for another system. Until then, enjoy the warm and wetter weather!
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And rest up! Whoosh! Lol
 
Arcc said:
Looking at last night's EPS and GEFS, I wouldn't be surprised to see that end month setup get colder based on how the models have did so far.

I would like to know the last time we had two storms hit all the state coasts in the south in the same year.
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Per weather channel...
Snow also fell in Mobile County, Alabama, overnight. Mobile Regional Airport officially measured 0.1 inches of snow and sleet making it only the second time on record that two measurable snow events occurred in the same winter - January 1977 being the other.
 
dsaur said:
Well, Goofy has a pretty good cad with moisture moving underneath the end of next week. Might bear watching..though I'd much prefer a good sleet storm :).
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Tony,
What did you end up with? I gave you a congrats earlier knowing that the entire area around you did well/jackpot territory, but never saw what you got.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
A winter as great as this one has to have a grand finale. But how do we top what we've already seen ?
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The current storm may have been just that for the SE as a whole. They don't get much closer to boardwide than this one. (I'm saying that knowing I, other coastal areas, SE GA, as well as Phil got nothing as expected (which obviously is almost always the case for all of these areas) and the SC midlands got less than expected....hopefully they will score later). But we'll see. Nobody knows! Even if there isn't another widespread storm, small areas could easily and probably will still get something, especially in NC/TN.

Very few winters have had 3 major winter storms by 1/17 that didn't just hit isolated areas. Many don't get even 2 in an entire winter.
 
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We just need one more storm to help our friends out in Central SC and maybe a few folks elsewhere and then we can call this the greatest winter ever. When everyone is polled at the end of this winter, I want everyone to give it an A+.
 
If we relax and reload end of month, then February will be great. Our bigger winterstorms are in February most of the time.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Whatever type of storm I had back in 2011 would be nice. I believe SC scored in that one as well. Jackpot zone was riding HWY 78. My year might be off but I had 6.5in.
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No you're correct Jan 2011. I had 6" in Lilburn. Had snow on the ground for a week with that one.
 
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