• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jarring January

ForsythSnow said:
Great Gainesville blizzard of 2018 I see you want. We aren't getting a typical La Nina that's for sure.
Click to expand...
Actually, a minor blizzard would suffice ... (Just kidding);
FS, If you're responding to some of what I've posted yesterday and today, it is admittedly in hopes of a cold and stormy February, even if this Curmudgeon is only on the fringe (though I have cautioned we have a lot to get through the next 10 -15 days before a cold/stormy February becomes a remote possibility). Assuredly, we do have Severe, Drought, T-Storm and 'Cane seasons to suffer through afterwards, so that, in part, forms the basis for this person's hope for one more month of what is actually a winter ... again ... ;)
~~~~~~~~
Edit/PS - Been rootin' for all of y'all for weeks, BTW ... :cool:
 
Last edited:
pcbjr said:
Actually, a minor blizzard would suffice ... (Just kidding);
FS, If you're responding to some of what I've posted yesterday and today, it is admittedly in hopes of a cold and stormy February, even if this Curmudgeon is only on the fringe (though I have cautioned we have a lot to get through the next 10 -15 days before a cold/stormy February becomes a remote possibility). Assuredly, we do have Severe, Drought, T-Storm and 'Cane seasons to suffer through afterwards, so that, in part, forms the basis for this person's hope for one more month of what is actually a winter ... again ... ;)
~~~~~~~~
Edit/PS - Been rootin' for all of y'all for weeks, BTW ... :cool:
Click to expand...
Hey Phil! I'd rather be down there eating grouper sandwiches and drinking margaritas than up here watching snow fail to accumulate and freezing my hind end off!! It's friggin' cold up here - was 7 this morning and will be a balmy 12 tomorrow morning. HS!!
 
MJO phases 4-5 aren't going to support a winter storm, plus some upcoming torch I've been hearing about since about Jan 1st
 
skywatcher said:
Hey Phil! I'd rather be down there eating grouper sandwiches and drinking margaritas than up here watching snow fail to accumulate and freezing my hind end off!! It's friggin' cold up here - was 7 this morning and will be a balmy 12 tomorrow morning. HS!!
Click to expand...
There has to be a happy median -- Grouper sandwiches, margaritas, snow, and let's say for compromise, 27º?
Hey Nan - Love ya!
Phil
 
Tarheel1 said:
MJO phases 4-5 aren't going to support a winter storm, plus some upcoming torch I've been hearing about since about Jan 1st
Click to expand...
Correct. But ... can we get back in the circle and hang a Louie?
Some models suggest as much and it remains "Say tuned" time ... :eek:
 
KATL has already received 2+" of SN/IP twice this winter! Anyone want to guess how many times they've gotten that in a single winter going back to 1890?
 
GaWx said:
KATL has already received 2+" of SN/IP twice this winter! Anyone want to guess how many times they've gotten that in a single winter going back to 1890?
Click to expand...

I’m more curious to know how winters comparable to this one performed for the remaining winter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
MBell said:
I’m more curious to know how winters comparable to this one performer for the remaining winter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
excellent question.. 95-96, also La Nina, might hold some answers... but 2002-03 is also a close analog it seems, even though that was El nino...
 
GaWx said:
KATL has already received 2+" of SN/IP twice this winter! Anyone want to guess how many times they've gotten that in a single winter going back to 1890?
Click to expand...

Great question! Didn't it happen a few years ago? I'll say six times. About once every 20 years.
 
Hey Gawx, exactly where was the mjo leading into the Dec snow, the big coastal you and stormsfurry got, and todays event. Inside cod/outside / what stage1,2 etc? Youll be glad to hear JB going all warm east coast next 3 weeks, saying Feb 7 into March is extreme BN, departures just like we witnessed. Rare you hear AN from him I know. I'm gonna try and see if we get one more opportunity to pin the tail on the donkey. My hunch is we do and JBs ammo is off mjo forecast. Atleast that's how I've been interpreting him.
I've already given this winter an A regardless what happens from here on out. Hard to beleive we just have passed halfway point of met winter this week.
 
I'm convinced someone put up a snow shield from Jasper Tn. to Dalton, Ga.. Every time something looks good for this area something happens to stop the show.
 
It's back
1bc8015007a8f14bb16cf2dfa7066c7b.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Wulfer said:
I'm convinced someone put up a snow shield from Jasper Tn. to Dalton, Ga.. Every time something looks good for this area something happens to stop the show.
Click to expand...
did you live in Chattanooga from 1996 to 2007? Now that was a mega snow shield. No event over 3 inches that entire time.
 
NCSNOW said:
Hey Gawx, exactly where was the mjo leading into the Dec snow, the big coastal you and stormsfurry got, and todays event. Inside cod/outside / what stage1,2 etc? Youll be glad to hear JB going all warm east coast next 3 weeks, saying Feb 7 into March is extreme BN, departures just like we witnessed. Rare you hear AN from him I know. I'm gonna try and see if we get one more opportunity to pin the tail on the donkey. My hunch is we do and JBs ammo is off mjo forecast. Atleast that's how I've been interpreting him.
I've already given this winter an A regardless what happens from here on out. Hard to beleive we just have passed halfway point of met winter this week.
Click to expand...

12/8-9/2017: 7 outside
1/3/2018: 2 outside
1/16-17/2018: 3-4 outside
 
SSGa said:
Great question! Didn't it happen a few years ago? I'll say six times. About once every 20 years.
Click to expand...

Very close! You're in second. And yes, the last one happened just a few years ago. (2014)
 
Last edited:
dsaur said:
5
Click to expand...

Winner! Tony got it exactly right: 5 (excluding this winter obviously) back to 1890. Hmmm, maybe you have an abacus yourself? What do you win? An all expense paid trip for 2 (thanks to southernwx), via a plane on 24/7 standby, to a location that just received 4"+ of sleet. A new sled will be provided by southernwx at the location. So, you won't need to bring or rent one!

If I were to go back to the 1880s, I'd actually find a total of 6 additional winters with at least two 2"+ SN/IP events:

2017-8: DJ (weak/moderate La Nina)
2013-4: JF (cold neutral)
1935-6: JF (warm neutral)
1929-30: DJ (warm neutral)
1898-9: JF (cold neutral to weak La Nina)
1894-5: FF (weak La Nina)
1884-5: JFF (yes, 3 that winter) (weak El Nino)

Note the clumps they are all in.

By the way, 2017-8 has the honor of having the earliest 2nd 2"+ event, 1/16-7. Prior to this, the earliest was 1/29 (winter of 1929-30).
 
Last edited:
Some more interesting Jan 18 trivia.. so far CHA has had 11 sub 40 highs.. That's more than Feb 15, Jan 14, and Jan 11. Pretty incredible sustained cold really. 8 was our lowest min temp. 2010 was the last time we've had this many sub 40 high temps. 13 that year. Although 14 was the lowest min. And 5.3 inches of snow. Jan 18 snowfall? .3 inches.
 
Last edited:
MBell said:
I’m more curious to know how winters comparable to this one performed for the remaining winter.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, there aren't enough comparable to allow for meaningful analysis.

Edit: However, 1917-8, a winter with similar ENSO, is a bit intriguing because it also had a big event in the first half of Dec. (SN and IP) along with two significant SN and/or IP events in early Jan (each ~1-1.5"). It went on to have a major ZR 1/21/18, which was the swan song for that winter. there were 3 more cold days immediately after the ZR and one short cold snap in early Feb. Otherwise, it was pretty mild Feb-Mar.
 
Last edited:
I've seen some of you guys post reanalysis maps at 500 mb for past events.. is there a free website to obtain those? Or just people like Webb with wizard minds who research this stuff?
 
GaWx said:
Unfortunately, there aren't enough comparable to allow for meaningful analysis.

Edit: However, 1917-8, a winter with similar ENSO, is a bit intriguing because it also had a big event in the first half of Dec. (SN and IP) along with two significant SN and/or IP events in early Jan (each ~1-1.5"). It went on to have a major ZR 1/21/18, which was the swan song for that winter.
Click to expand...
that winter opens up a whole new can weird worms: http://oceansgovernclimate.com/u-s-extreme-winter-191718/
 
Larry, there talk and concerns of a possible cross polar vortex in February, whst do you know about that and the chances of it happening for the lower 48s. Plus - 80ish in Russian could have something to do with it?
 
accu35 said:
Larry, there talk and concerns of a possible cross polar vortex in February, whst do you know about that and the chances of it happening for the lower 48s. Plus - 80ish in Russian could have something to do with it?
Click to expand...
interesting stuff.. but fyi it went -80 F in 2013 as well in that region..
 
obviously different year, with different overall atmospheric dynamics... I would assume if cross polar flow sets up in Feb, we're looking at some severe arctic outbreaks in the CONUS somewhere. Of course, all the severe cold could stay over the Eastern Hemisphere as well, and our side of the planet remains mild.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top