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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

Brick Tamland said:
The tornado outbreak might be the big story with this when it's all over.
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That may absolutely end up being accurate. I’m not knowledgeable enough speak on it, but I’m wondering if the expansion of the wind field from Milton is fueling the updrafts inland….essentially energy transfer away from Milton and into its outer bands. Anyone?
 
GaWx said:
To put the latest intensity of 944 mb into better perspective for the area, the 1921 cat 3 Tarpon Springs storm that passed just N of Tampa Bay had a landfall there at 952 mb.
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Interesting.....the hwrf posted 950ish at Tarpon Springs multiple times this week.
 
RoddyPiper said:
That may absolutely end up being accurate. I’m not knowledgeable enough speak on it, but I’m wondering if the expansion of the wind field from Milton is fueling the updrafts inland….essentially energy transfer away from Milton and into its outer bands. Anyone?
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I think the W to NW shear is increasing the rotation in these supercells
 
GaWx said:
The earlier the landfall, the better it may be for highest water levels? I wonder about that because the tide would be a little lower. We just passed a low tide.
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I was thinking of this too. There is only something on the order of 2' of range in that part of the world if memory serves. And, the onshore flow for the Tampa area will come later in the evening as the astronomical tide is coming in. Another fly in the ointment is if this faster forward speed holds, the storm will beat the worst of the westerly shear approaching the storm as we speak and along with coastal convergence, the opportunity for further weakening before landfall or perhaps even some unexpected modest strengthening can not be rules out.

In short, I tend to think whatever advantage of having landfall before high tide is negated by a stronger storm.
 
Arcc said:
Pretty much confirms my thinking, along with radar from KTBW. Not really much of an “eyewall” per say because the winds have really spread out.

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Yep, looks as though it's going "baroclinic" with it starting to tilt back towards cooler air. Starting to take on that Nor'Easter look.
 

4:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9
Location: 26.9°N 83.5°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
 
Shawn said:
Bros. Calm tf down. He's trying to intensify as we speak. Hail & Lightning in the core again and a 6.5 T rating

Sat estimate at 928mb...
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It looks to me like the cloud tops near the center are cooling fairly rapidly on south and west side of the eye. Also, radar indicates, though light in intensity, the south and west side of the eye finally beginning to show some precip again. maybe gonna at least stabilize? I would prefer it get totally infiltrated with dry air and be done for the sake of the poor folks down in Florida!
 
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a
sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of
the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission,
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and
105 kt.

Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at
about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the
hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very
soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this
evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida
and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.

Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major
hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this
evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent
of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the
northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to
southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are
likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south,
regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still
exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of
Florida given the size of the storm.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already
beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model
guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in
about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the
new NHC forecast.
 
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