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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

GaWx said:
12Z main global runs:

Icon: Tampa Wed night (a bit N of 6Z/0Z’s Sarasota) vs 6Z’s Wed night/0Z’s Wed afternoon

CMC: Sarasota Thu AM (>24 hrs sooner than 0Z’s Fri AM)(N of 0Z’s Pt Charlotte)

JMA: Sarasota Thu AM (similar location and later than yesterday’s 12Z’s Wed evening

GFS: Port Richey (25 miles N of Tampa) Wed night (slightly S of 6Z’s Hudson and S of 0Z’s just N of Crystal River)

UKMET: Bradenton, MUCH further N of 0Z’s Naples and stronger; late Wed evening (later than 0Z’s Wed afternoon)

Euro: Tampa Wed night, near 6Z and just barely N of 0Z’s Bradenton; earlier than 6Z’s Thu morning but a little later than 0Z’s Wed evening

*So, 12Z has much smaller range than 0Z from 25 miles N of Tampa (Port Richey) to 50 miles S of Tampa (Sarasota)..so only 75 miles vs 0Z’s range of 200 miles

*From N to S 12Z: GFS, Icon/Euro, UKMET, CMC/JMA

*Timing of 12Z: ranges from late Wed evening to Thu morning
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Hwrf 12z Thursday.....south of cedar key, for many times. Best case of them all from a people standpoint, but devastating.
HMON 06z Thursday.....well you can see.


hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_25.png

hmon_mslp_wind_14L_23.png
 
Shaggy said:
The fact wilma was 882 with a 2 mile wide eye. I think he gets down to 900-905 easily but reistically speaking sub 900 is almost unheard let alone sub 890
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Ok. Didn’t know if you were basing that off of data, storm structure, environment, etc….or just more of an “odds are it won’t because it’s unheard of”.
 
RoddyPiper said:
Ok. Didn’t know if you were basing that off of data, storm structure, environment, etc….or just more of an “odds are it won’t because it’s unheard of”.
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If he was more stationary over a deep pocket of hot water I'd say this would be one to test Wilma. Don't think he gets that low based on how anomalous she really was.

Doesn't change the fact Milton is an absolute monster in his own right
 
Shaggy said:
The fact wilma was 882 with a 2 mile wide eye. I think he gets down to 900-905 easily but reistically speaking sub 900 is almost unheard let alone sub 890
Click to expand...

I don’t think it challenges Wilma, but dang looking at the still cooling cloud tops, sub-900mb is possible.
 
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