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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

Anyone know what the SLOSH model prediction is for the Tampa area? If they even use this model still.
 
I'm still of the opinion that a landfall north of Tampa is ultimately where Milton land falls. The GFS is probably too weak with Milton and an intense CAT 4-5 hurricane would be steered primarily by the upper-level flow. The model has been insistent on this sharp ULL trough for many runs now.
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That 160mph looks really conservative. I think we have a 170mph-180mph hurricane currently. I kept my lips tight with everyone expecting this thing to lose steam and weaken as it approaches land. These things have routinely been stronger than anticipated and for longer the last 10 years. Even Helene was well on her way to a strong Cat 5 all the way to landfall if not for her forward speed increasing as fast as it did. And while it may weaken still as it approaches land, the starting point of that has quickly gone from a peak of around 930-940mb and a Category 4 to likely around a sub 910mb and over 180mph Cat 5. This thing has a real shot to make landfall as a Cat 5 even with some weakening. Note though with this thing being as strong it's going to be able to fight off shear (personally based on the track I think it was going to be minimum anyway) and dry air for a lot longer.
 
iGRXY said:
That 160mph looks really conservative. I think we have a 170mph-180mph hurricane currently. I kept my lips tight with everyone expecting this thing to lose steam and weaken as it approaches land. These things have routinely been stronger than anticipated and for longer the last 10 years. Even Helene was well on her way to a strong Cat 5 all the way to landfall if not for her forward speed increasing as fast as it did. And while it may weaken still as it approaches land, the starting point of that has quickly gone from a peak of around 930-940mb and a Category 4 to likely around a sub 910mb and over 180mph Cat 5. This thing has a real shot to make landfall as a Cat 5 even with some weakening. Note though with this thing being as strong it's going to be able to fight off shear (personally based on the track I think it was going to be minimum anyway) and dry air for a lot longer.
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I really doubt anywhere close to Cat 5 at landfall but I’ve been surprised before.

These storms with pinhole eyes tend to come unraveled in spectacular fashion when they eventually do have a ERC. Very well could take a day or so just to re-organize.
 
Seems like this could be setting up as a “worst case” scenario for Tampa Bay. Of course, we’ve thought that was going to happen before (i.e. Charlie 2004) and it’s avoided a direct hit and mostly spared them the worst destruction, but things aren’t looking good as of now.
 
superjames1992 said:
Seems like this could be setting up as a “worst case” scenario for Tampa Bay. Of course, we’ve thought that was going to happen before (i.e. Charlie 2004) and it’s avoided a direct hit and mostly spared them the worst destruction, but things aren’t looking good as of now.
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charley went well south of Tampa correct ?
 
Henry2326 said:
I think they moved it a smig north. My opinion, they will keep doing that. It will come in just north of Tampa, but the damage to Tampa will be devastating without a headon.
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Isn’t it hitting ever so slightly north of Tampa the worst case scenario because they’d get the worst of the winds coming in from the south and west and pushing water into the bay?
 
Well I just got off the phone with one of my best friends who has lived near Tampa the last 12 years. Him and his family have never evacuated, but after seeing the surge first hand from Helene told me a few days ago, they’re leaving the next time. When he answered the phone this morning, I told him that the next time is and to please get stuff ready and be gone by tomorrow afternoon. He told me he was already putting up his storm shutters and is pulling out first thing in the morning
 
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SD said:
Peak atlantic hurricane right hereView attachment 152794
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The CDO is much more symmetrical now and really only needs slight improvement in the SSE quadrant. Excellent outflow across the board. It wouldn't surprise me for it to make it to 180 before weakening. Motion still looks ever so slightly south of due east.
 
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