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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

i think it is interesting that the short range models are north of the envelope. both nams model a northward lurch today before filtering back east. i don't like relying on these models but it's worth monitoring in case the hurricane models follow
 
ILMRoss said:
i think it is interesting that the short range models are north of the envelope. both nams model a northward lurch today before filtering back east. i don't like relying on these models but it's worth monitoring in case the hurricane models follow
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I noticed that most models from the 6z runs were too far left even at the 6hr forecast for 12z. Will be telling today.
 
Some deep convection firing on the northern half. Anyone have a dashboard or link to monitor surge gauges in the region later today?
 
NHC 11:00

The NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall.

On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.

Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
ForsythSnow said:
Milton is definitely trying to push through the ERC again quickly. Looks similar to how it was a couple days ago and is really trying to push new storms out in the new eye. Eye size at 32 open NW currently.
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Sure has. While the storm will likely never again have a donut eye, I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see some re-intensification over the next several hours before leveling off.

As expected, the wind field is expanding rather dramatically.
 
Arcc said:
Honestly, unless something changes, my 120mph call may be generous.
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I haven’t seen anyone say this but I hope you’re right. On what are you basing this? My guess was 125 and I’d love to miss it too high. However, even if so, would it change the overall effects all that much? It still looks to be a monster.
Downeastnc said:
Milton looks ummmm less than optimal....

View attachment 153052
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Great to see but then again this has been expected/forecasted and it is still a beast.
 
GaWx said:
I haven’t seen anyone say this but I hope you’re right. On what are you basing this? My guess was 125 and I’d love to miss it too high. However, even if so, would it change the overall effects all that much? It still looks to be a monster.

Great to see but then again this has been expected/forecasted and it is still a beast.
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Satellite trends mostly. The trump card is eventually extratropical transition will slow the bleeding, but how much weakening happens before then. That said, if dry air will hollow out the rest of the core, I think it would really help the landfall regions. Still gonna be a nasty storm regardless, but if those really high winds aloft can’t make it to the surface, it will definitely help.
 
12Z landfalls of main globals

Euro 11PM Tampa Bay

ICON 10PM Tampa Bay

CMC ~12:30AM ~Bradenton

GFS 11PM Bradenton

UKMET ~10PM ~Bradenton
 
South AL Wx said:
2 pm advisory: Down to 130 mph, pressure up to 944 mb. But the wind field is expanding.
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JMB said:
Which is a good thing
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It would be a great thing if it were really “falling apart rather rapidly”. I hope it is but that sounds like a bit of an exaggeration especially the “falling apart” portion, which makes it sound like it will no longer be that big of a deal. Imho
 
12 Nam moved a notch north on approach, which it also did in the 06z. It is not the lowest pressure for a change. That's the only positive thing I see anywhere in the models.

nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_17.png
 
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