Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

[jrips27]

Anyone know when the next plane is going in? TropicalTidbits is down

 

[ajr]

Anyone know when the next plane is going in? TropicalTidbits is down

I think I saw one on the way on TT before it went down… someone correct me if I’m wrong though

 

[Snowfan]

I think I saw one on the way on TT before it went down… someone correct me if I’m wrong though

That's the upper-level plane. The lower-level plane is expected to leave about 10 minutes and arrive around 5:30 PM.

 

[ILMRoss]

Obviously we’re used to seeing stronger storms moving west tend to move more along the northern side of the track. Would that still be the case with a storm moving east?

I think so but I'll mention a lot of my internal climatology maxims like the above are scrambled. Steering currents in the upper levels definitely favor more northward movement though, may be that



this storm is also likely flooding the upper atmosphere with hot air via latent heat release in condensation- there's a ridge to the east of the storm at the 200 mb level that may be getting stronger than forecast and exerting more northerly influence. i would be interested in seeing if this is a systematic change or just a blip and i'm just yapping about nothing. it would make sense though, i generally think models will be playing catch up until the 00z suite tonight

 

[Shawn]

You should. Most likely it will hit as a cat3.

Storm surge kills. Unless he has multiple escape routes or plans to stay well away from surge zones, no.

Edit: *IF* this thing heads towards the bay, people are not ready for the surge. Top that with debris from the last event that has been dropped off around the state.. this is not one to play with, even at Cat. 1

 

[Ron Burgundy]

View attachment 152811

Well that’s pretty much your worst-case scenario right there

 

[BHS1975]

The fact wilma was 882 with a 2 mile wide eye. I think he gets down to 900-905 easily but reistically speaking sub 900 is almost unheard let alone sub 890

2 mile eye? That's basically a large tornado.


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[BullCityWx]

One thing I’m a little encouraged by is that the hurricane models show it weakning as it goes in around Tampa. If you recall, they absolutely nailed the intensity of Helene.

 

[BHS1975]

One thing I’m a little encouraged by is that the hurricane models show it weakning as it goes in around Tampa. If you recall, they absolutely nailed the intensity of Helene.

Let's hope they're right again.


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[jrips27]

 

[deltadog03]

I would say a slight ENE movement, as ILM said earlier, looks to maybe have started.

 

[Shaggy]

2 mile eye? That's basically a large tornado.


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Well 2.3 to.be exact. This may be the 2nd smallest eye i can recall

 

[RoddyPiper]

One thing I’m a little encouraged by is that the hurricane models show it weakning as it goes in around Tampa. If you recall, they absolutely nailed the intensity of Helene.

Wont matter....Cat 5 storm surge will have already built up.

 

[BullCityWx]

Wont matter....Cat 5 storm surge will have already built up.

That’s true

 

[jrips27]

4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.8°N 90.8°W Moving: E at 10 mph Min pressure: 905 mb Max sustained: 180 mph

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Up to 180 mph on the 5 PM EDT update. 905 mb pressure, moving E at 10.
I think the updated surge is now 10-15 feet to right of landfall.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Milton is the same strength Hurricane Mitch was at its strongest. Mitch was 180 mph/905.

 

[Brent]

NHC still showing worst case scenario for Tampa Bay. Still a high end 3 inland too

 

[jrips27]

 

[accu35]

So is Milton moving E or NE? Some say it started the turn but NHC says east