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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

Arcc said:
Guaranteed they will reanalyze it lower during the off season to make us wrong.
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Lexx is on standby with her 110 for the possible win lol.

Seriously though, I think the 120 will stay. The lowest pressure of 954 is consistent with a midrange cat 3. And the overall impacts are seeming like a cat 3 to me. And the NHC did a great job overall.

I don’t see much of anything underwhelming about this storm vs earlier predictions in terms of winds, surge, flooding rains, and especially tornadoes. This is a very high impact storm for FL imho. And this is by a good margin the strongest storm landfall in the area in over 100 years based on pressure and winds. Great job NHC!
 
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RoddyPiper said:
Not a nothingburger, but definitely underwhelming given the storm we had 36 hours ago. Unlikely we see confirmed winds anywhere over 100mph, and surge no more than 8-10 feet. Thankful for those spared.
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Where the storm was 36 hours ago is irrelevant as never was it expected by the NHC to come in anywhere close to that. For some reason, you’re comparing it to something that was never going to happen.
 
GaWx said:
Where the storm was 36 hours ago is irrelevant as never was it expected by the NHC to come in anywhere close to that. For some reason, you’re comparing it to something that was never going to happen.
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Yeah tbh I'm surprised it was as in tact as it was... Some of the hurricane models were totally gutting it

I think it helped a lot landfall sped up if this had languished into tomorrow like thought it would have been even weaker
 
GaWx said:
Where the storm was 36 hours ago is irrelevant as never was it expected by the NHC to come in anywhere close to that. For some reason, you’re comparing it to something that was never going to happen.
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I see the winds are quite strong on the NE Florida coast. What are you expecting out your way later on as the storm exits the coast?
 
GaWx said:
Lexx is on standby with her 110 for the possible win lol.

Seriously though, I think the 120 will stay. The lowest pressure of 954 is consistent with a midrange cat 3. And the overall impacts are seeming like a cat 3 to me. And the NHC did a great job overall.

I don’t see much of anything underwhelming about this storm vs earlier predictions in terms of winds, surge, flooding rains, and especially tornadoes. This is a very high impact storm for FL imho. And this is by a good margin the strongest storm landfall in the area in over 100 years based on pressure and winds. Great job NHC!
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I could honestly see them going with 110 or 115 during reanalysis looking at the last data collected from the hurricane hunters. I think it could be lower than that based on structure, but they won’t drop it much I don’t think
 
GaWx said:
Where the storm was 36 hours ago is irrelevant as never was it expected by the NHC to come in anywhere close to that. For some reason, you’re comparing it to something that was never going to happen.
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Great points Larry and I get it but in today’s era of social media the only reason this storm got the attention it did as soon as it did is because of where it was at 36 hours ago. A Cat 5, trending on Twitter as a “Cat 6!”, barreling towards Florida. I still had friends and family on social media reposting the “Cat 5” nonsense up until this afternoon. Milton set a certain expectation a few days ago. It just did. It was one of the nastiest gulf fish hurricanes of all time. I think it’s definitely worth noting that a bullet was dodged here and watching satellite of Milton over the last 3-4 days I think that’s obvious. In the end, this ain’t the big bad wolf it probably should have been. Helene is going to take the crown this year and by a long shot.

Something that is certainly worth noting is the tornado outbreak we saw in Florida today. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything quite like that. A frightening and memorable weather day for Floridians no doubt about it but in the end this was still an ugly hurricane at landfall.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I see the winds are quite strong on the NE Florida coast. What are you expecting out your way later on as the storm exits the coast?
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Not that much up this far. Probably some gusts tomorrow in the 30s but not even close to what we had from Helene. Just a normal windy day. Should mean outages are limited (fingers crossed lol). We’re getting very light rain and I don’t expect more than very light through tomorrow. We may even be dry most of the time. We’re being helped a lot by Milton moving E after coming off FL instead of NE.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Great points Larry and I get it but in today’s era of social media the only reason this storm got the attention it did as soon as it did is because of where it was at 36 hours ago. A Cat 5, trending on Twitter as a “Cat 6!”, barreling towards Florida. I still had friends and family on social media reposting the “Cat 5” nonsense up until this afternoon. Milton set a certain expectation a few days ago. It just did. It was one of the nastiest gulf fish hurricanes of all time. I think it’s definitely worth noting that a bullet was dodged here and watching satellite of Milton over the last 3-4 days I think that’s obvious. In the end, this ain’t the big bad wolf it probably should have been. Helene is going to take the crown this year and by a long shot.

Something that is certainly worth noting is the tornado outbreak we saw in Florida today. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything quite like that. A frightening and memorable weather day for Floridians no doubt about it but in the end this was still an ugly hurricane at landfall.
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There are a lot of ignorant people on social media spreading misinfo/false expectations. But knowledgeable folks like us knew better. I always thought it was going to weaken substantially. Look no further than my 125/953 mb contest prediction! The only bullet that was dodged imho was it not landfalling at or N of TB leading to a potentially catastrophic surge there.

Did you hear that the FL tornado outbreak was the largest for any day in FL history and 2nd biggest for any state on record?

“Ugly” IR satellite pics can be very deceiving. The “ground” truth said otherwise, tornadoes and the rest.

*Corrected
 
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GaWx said:
There are a lot of ignorant people on social media spreading misinfo/false expectations. But knowledgeable folks like us knew better. I always thought it was going to weaken substantially. Look no further than my 120/953 mb contest prediction! The only bullet that was dodged imho was it not landfalling at or N of TB leading to a potentially catastrophic surge there.

Did you hear that the FL tornado outbreak was the largest for any day in FL history and 2nd biggest for any state on record?

“Ugly” IR satellite pics can be very deceiving. The “ground” truth said otherwise, tornadoes and the rest.
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The southern part of Milton was all but gone at landfall which I guess is why they lowered all of their surge forecasts 🤷‍♂️ I’m just not sure the ingredients were there at landfall to create a biblical surge into Tampa bay even if it went north.

Either way, Florida owning the second biggest tornado outbreak on record is an insane stat. That’s actually hard to believe. Good info as always Larry.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Great points Larry and I get it but in today’s era of social media the only reason this storm got the attention it did as soon as it did is because of where it was at 36 hours ago. A Cat 5, trending on Twitter as a “Cat 6!”, barreling towards Florida. I still had friends and family on social media reposting the “Cat 5” nonsense up until this afternoon. Milton set a certain expectation a few days ago. It just did. It was one of the nastiest gulf fish hurricanes of all time. I think it’s definitely worth noting that a bullet was dodged here and watching satellite of Milton over the last 3-4 days I think that’s obvious. In the end, this ain’t the big bad wolf it probably should have been. Helene is going to take the crown this year and by a long shot.

Something that is certainly worth noting is the tornado outbreak we saw in Florida today. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything quite like that. A frightening and memorable weather day for Floridians no doubt about it but in the end this was still an ugly hurricane at landfall.
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I agree that Helene very likely gets the crown, especially due to the huge impact on the well inland areas not normally heavily affected. But Helene isn’t over yet, especially due to the ongoing C FL flash flood emergency. Orlando to Daytona and nearby areas still have a ways to go. And the backside has had the highest winds in many cases!

Check this amazing stat: St Petersburg got over 18” of rain yesterday!! How big is that? Since records started in 1916, the prior record high for any one day was 9.61” on 9/5/1933 (from storm #11 that hit SE FL as a MH and then moved just NW of Tampa). They got 7.76” on 6/23/1945 from a H that had a landfall 100 miles to the N. They received 7.42” on 9/4/1935 from the Labor Day Hurricane moving N just offshore. None of these are even close to what Milton gave them! And steady rain is still falling there! Rivers may not all crest for a couple of days.

St. Petersburg FL Most Rain in a Day for Each Year - Current Results

The highest amount of rain to fall in a single day for each year in St. Petersburg.
www.currentresults.com www.currentresults.com
 
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GaWx said:
There are a lot of ignorant people on social media spreading misinfo/false expectations. But knowledgeable folks like us knew better. I always thought it was going to weaken substantially. Look no further than my 125/953 mb contest prediction! The only bullet that was dodged imho was it not landfalling at or N of TB leading to a potentially catastrophic surge there.

Did you hear that the FL tornado outbreak was the largest for any day in FL history and 2nd biggest for any state on record?

“Ugly” IR satellite pics can be very deceiving. The “ground” truth said otherwise, tornadoes and the rest.

*Corrected
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It's amazing to me, Larry, what people devoid of critical thinking will believe. I guess next is the Parker probe is creating sun spots, lol. Funny but oh, so dangerous. I hope people didn't die tonight because of the bogus crap spewed about, by people that should know better. This board and outlets like it offer such great looks at the vagaries of weather, and how predicting it after a point is like herding cats. Use the brain and eyes, not the urge to follow blindly any conspiracy offered. Weather science has advanced so much in recent years, and it's worth paying attention to, and not the nut balls. Using dangerous weather as entertainment and titillation is wrong in so many ways. But I guess the nut ball way is easier, than study, and learning. And there in lies the very real danger.
 
GaWx said:
Where the storm was 36 hours ago is irrelevant as never was it expected by the NHC to come in anywhere close to that. For some reason, you’re comparing it to something that was never going to happen.
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You missed the whole point of the post
 
Arcc said:
I could honestly see them going with 110 or 115 during reanalysis looking at the last data collected from the hurricane hunters. I think it could be lower than that based on structure, but they won’t drop it much I don’t think
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100%! It should be lower than that, but I think there is some amount of “saving face” that will be done.
 
RoddyPiper said:
100%! It should be lower than that, but I think there is some amount of “saving face” that will be done.
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There’s nothing about saving face. The actual recorded pressures and damage being seen is very consistent with a mid range cat 3 as Larry pointed out.
 
The important thing to remember here is not what the intensity was, it is how many lives were lost during this storm. If you had a relative die in this storm you would have cared less what the top wind speed was. Best thing we can do now is pray for the people in Florida, they are going to have some work to do.
 
MichaelJ said:
The important thing to remember here is not what the intensity was, it is how many lives were lost during this storm. If you had a relative die in this storm you would have cared less what the top wind speed was. Best thing we can do now is pray for the people in Florida, they are going to have some work to do.
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I don't disagree with you at all. But since this is a weather site, it's good to keep in mind that the human impacts and the meteorological aspects of an event, while largely related, are often two different conversations. And we can have both. I know you're not saying we can't.

Personally, I find the strength discussion fascinating. But as you said, there's always a larger humanitarian impact from weather events.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't disagree with you at all. But since this is a weather site, it's good to keep in mind that the human impacts and the meteorological aspects of an event, while largely related, are often two different conversations. And we can have both. I know you're not saying we can't.

Personally, I find the strength discussion fascinating. But as you said, there's always a larger humanitarian impact from weather events.
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Its sad because there will be tons of idiots out there crying about how they evacuated for nothing etc etc, the storm literally fell apart 10 or so hrs out just 5 or 6 more hrs difference in the timing and things would have been much different. Emergency managers and others simply cant downplay this based on that kind of timing, it takes days to get people out safely so they have to pull the trigger well in advance of a landfall....
 
Downeastnc said:
Its sad because there will be tons of idiots out there crying about how they evacuated for nothing etc etc, the storm literally fell apart 10 or so hrs out just 5 or 6 more hrs difference in the timing and things would have been much different. Emergency managers and others simply cant downplay this based on that kind of timing, it takes days to get people out safely so they have to pull the trigger well in advance of a landfall....
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You are correct. I get it. Mass evac takes commitment early on. That call had to be made. The unfortunate news is the people that were probably most scared and in danger through this storm were the Floridians who had to contend with tornados all day yesterday. Probably a lot of those were evacuees that fled to what ultimately seemed like tornado alley. They’re saying northern Fort Pierce, which is located on the opposite side of Florida, was impacted the most through this hurricane. Wild
 
Brent said:
Considering Tampa gusted almost to 100 on the weak side... As we've been over before the strongest winds are never gonna be recorded inland... I don't think it'll move much maybe down to 110-115 maybe
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But is it possible for somewhere right along the coast where it made landfall to record 120 mph sustained winds ?
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
But is it possible for somewhere right along the coast where it made landfall to record 120 mph sustained winds ?
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Maybe but there's never gonna be a permanent record there it would have to be a chaser or somebody just happens to be there

All the reporting stations are well inland
 
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