The writing is on the wall. I see nothing that gives optimism except the unknown from models weeks 3-4.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
What is Shetley saying?
If you want hope we are going to need to hope for a Jan 2000 type 5 day period. This is what preceeded that. A multi-week cold/stormy isn't likely in Feb but we can beg borrow steal a few days to score a couple of events.
Twister
Member
Big time over performer for the DC-IAD-BWI-PHL corridor...4-6"+ throughout. 2nd one this week to overperform for them. That does give me hope for Feb...when you get these little over performers that can be contagious rest of winter.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
It's just uncanny, you really can't make this stuff up. It doesn't reach freezing for 7 days straight and what happens? Rain every single day!
rburrel2
Member
congrats asheville
www.ashevillewx.com
AshevilleWX
Located in the heart of Downtown Asheville, this camera is situated on the top of the Grimes Teich Anderson Building and views the entire town. Heavy snowfall and slick road conditions can be seen from this camera in the winter, and wonderful sunset can be found during the evenings!
www.ashevillewx.com
Relax, we're following right along...oh wait
I am eating lunch at my desk and checked the GFS and just burst out laughing and then I checked the CMC ensembles...and oh boy...I am getting my golf clubs ready.
When we believed this Feb was going to be any different than the last 9 is where we went wrong. Once the first talk of the Pac jet possibly overextended we knew it would. If it can go wrong it will
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Someone hold me
Jet will somehow stay extended forever until the 1st of March. Very logical
AO bad NAO bad EPO bad PNA bad
not sure how we recover in time either Kylo but hey I’m just a middle aged guy tracking snow, or lack thereof, on a weatherboard
Let's just pretend that the first image is a MSLP anomaly
rburrel2
Member
The start of February has went from looking pretty good, to decent, to questionable, to absolutely awful on the ensembles over the course of the last 3 days.
The good thing is can't trend much worse at this point.
The good thing is can't trend much worse at this point.
NCSNOW
Member
Nothing like living in the south and every time the wind comes from the NW, you jackpot. On top of the fact it never gets hotter than low 80's on the hottest day of the year in summer time.
When long range ensembles show patterns conducive of Winter weather, we praise them.
When long range ensembles show patterns conducive of Spring weather, we chastise them.
I don't understand?
Can someone explain like I am 5?
Why are they wrong if they show a Spring pattern?
When long range ensembles show patterns conducive of Spring weather, we chastise them.
I don't understand?
Can someone explain like I am 5?
Why are they wrong if they show a Spring pattern?
They are almost never wrong when they show a spring pattern. They are almost never right when they show a winter pattern.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I have decided what I hate the most about winter weather around here; down slopping. Eastern TN getting MORE snow, high mtns getting buried, even foothills getting at least something. Yet here in the upstate we are clear as a bell and in the 40s. I hate down slopping with a passion! This week is a perfect example of why lving in the lee of the mountains is torture for winter weather.
Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you get
rburrel2
Member
The agreement is uncanny!
The good news is it literally can't get any warmer than that...any future model runs will be an improvement.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
It’s not an official winter, until fights break out in the main threads! Winter is officially here!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Y’all can have it! 
olhausen
Member
It depends on the sun angle I hear. ?
I think the concern should be less about the pac jet and more about the nao showing no signs of life on the ens. If we start pushing that back we start losing spring it should be pretty stubborn once it gets going
rburrel2
Member
This is a stretch to say the least, but there's a Loyd Christmas level chance that northern stream s/w could drop down and bowling ball over us like March 1, 2009. The GFS has way less west coast ridging and a weaker s/w at hr 240 compared to the euro, but still tries to cut it off over us at hr 276.
Last edited:
Ima need you to update your location sir before people start thinking it's cold in apex
olhausen
Member
Parking lot at work is a sheet of ice.
rburrel2
Member
The Upstate is going to finish the month with 10-12 inches of liquid and BN temps... and nobody will even sniff a stray sleet pellet.
rburrel2
Member
There is potential to squeeze a winter storm in around January 30th though. I won't give up hope on that just yet. Would nice if at least a few ensemble members started showing something though.
That set up screams Northeast & maybe the Mid Atlantic all over it. It’s a brief window but it’s there.
Nice pick up burrel. We have it move the way it's been going (ala past 7 days) or it moves east. Note the west ridge placement
I think right now, VA and north is looking real good for that time frame, but I absolutely think western and central NC, SC upstate, and even Northeast GA have a chance. There is a really strong CAD signal at this lead time and with the energy shown flying around, it definitely bears watching.
Hopefully we can get some runs rolling in that timeframe this weekend.