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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

I absolutely screwed my MJO tweet a few hours ago. Somehow misread the MJO propagation which I've never done. Crazy, stressful day.
 
Decided to cancel the chase this weekend and reschedule the mountain trip to later this month for my Mom's birthday. Didn't wanna take any risks being on icy roads
 
BTW TWC currently has me reaching 48 for a high Saturday while the most recent GFS says I don't even get out of the 30s.
 
I’m gonna throw out a quote we trademarked in the SE! Precip shield should be much farther NW than modeled, with a low that strong”! -BrickC932CEBD-26AA-4627-AF39-DE97FD647053.pngBFA73328-0FA0-45F5-B51E-5758E86395CF.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’m gonna throw out a quote we trademarked in the SE! Precip shield should be much farther NW than modeled, with a low that strong”! -BrickView attachment 139832View attachment 139833
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“Need to get into NAM range to figure out the true CAD strength. Should be several degrees colder verbatim.” - Weenies who are about to get rained on
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
So about that sneaky little system tomorrow.

Y'all know the drill.

1) Watch temps tonight and report back when your backyard has dropped below forecast.
2) Look for that thickening cloud cover to beat the midday sun.
3) Watch the radar and look up every few minutes to confirm it's still virga.
4) When all of the above fails, check the 384-hour GFS.

This is my mission.
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Step one ✅ 5 degrees below forecast low.
Step two ✅ Cloud deck and sunrise racing to meet up.
Step three ? Just in case
o_O Such is the life of a winter weenie.
 

Georgia Weather History for January 3rd​

In 2002, one of the biggest snow storms to affect north and central Georgia since March 1993 began early on the 2nd and continued into mid day on the 3rd. Large areas of north and central Georgia saw 3 to 4 inches of snow. Four to six inches of snow fell in a 100 mile wide path from LaGrange to Atlanta to Athens to Homer, with 6 to 8 inches falling from Luthersville to Thomaston, and also from Gainesville to Homer.
 
Rain Cold said:
This happens every winter. Then we get the verification scores posted. Then the EPS shows cold again. Then we party. Then it shifts back to a western or Central US trough.

You really should go with the model that shows the trough to the west. For some reason, that's what the atmosphere wants to do year in and year out, with the occasional rare exception. Unless all three suites align with cold in the east, go with the one that dumps the cold out west. It doesn't matter which one it is.

With that, I'm done for the day. Y'all have at it.
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Ok
 
Rain Cold said:
This happens every winter. Then we get the verification scores posted. Then the EPS shows cold again. Then we party. Then it shifts back to a western or Central US trough.

You really should go with the model that shows the trough to the west. For some reason, that's what the atmosphere wants to do year in and year out, with the occasional rare exception. Unless all three suites align with cold in the east, go with the one that dumps the cold out west. It doesn't matter which one it is.

With that, I'm done for the day. Y'all have at it.
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Raincold wins SouthernWX for today. I'll pack it up and I'll see you first thing tomorrow!

This is not sarcasm.
 
ILMRoss said:
immense respect to yourself and webb and myfrotho and all the other long range acolytes because that is a skillset i simply do not have and have no motivation to develop lol. the 300 hr ensembles may as well be an ouija board to me
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it just takes one good conjuring, though. i believe in you @ILMRoss
 
With the nina run we were on the past few winters and having to deal with a persistent GOA/Aleutian ridge it's a bitter pill to see the ensembles strengthing an GOA/Aleutian ridge in a strong nino... ?‍♂️

I still think that will be short lived...probably...maybe....I hope.

3lkShJdSOK.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5557600.png
 
This makes me nauseous...
qpf_acc-imp.us_ma.png
 
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