• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Lee

Chazwin said:
I think it turning north is a given based on modeling right now. The big question is how long will Margot block it from being able to turn east any. The EURO has it blocking off until it’s too late and we see go very close to Cape Cod and then up into Maine.
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't see this being like Irma or probably even Florence... It's gonna be much more north if it does hit
 
Brent said:
Yeah I don't see this being like Irma or probably even Florence... It's gonna be much more north if it does hit
Click to expand...
The only thing I will say that if the storm slows down much more that what the Euro is showing right now, there’s a chance for it to get further west and maybe put the the Outer Banks and north at risk.
 
499
URNT15 KNHC 072336
AF306 0213A LEE HDOB 21 20230907
232800 1642N 05203W 6970 03059 9937 +098 //// 330057 058 051 000 01
232830 1643N 05201W 6968 03053 9929 +097 //// 332060 062 052 001 01
232900 1644N 05200W 6963 03047 9916 +098 //// 329065 066 056 000 01
232930 1645N 05159W 6964 03032 9910 +092 //// 325068 070 057 000 01
233000 1647N 05157W 6970 03014 9891 +094 //// 324073 075 061 001 01
233030 1648N 05156W 6963 03004 9866 +098 //// 322075 076 065 000 01
233100 1649N 05155W 6969 02976 9850 +095 //// 323080 083 070 000 01
233130 1650N 05154W 6959 02958 9801 +108 +096 322088 092 075 001 00
233200 1651N 05152W 6968 02908 9760 +108 //// 320093 094 086 004 01
233230 1652N 05151W 6975 02856 9694 +099 //// 320106 110 098 032 01
233300 1653N 05150W 6977 02780 9650 +097 //// 320121 129 116 055 01
233330 1654N 05148W 6993 02678 //// +101 //// 311112 132 139 018 01
233400 1655N 05147W 6988 02615 9404 +150 +142 316072 097 138 009 00
233430 1656N 05146W 6967 02615 9344 +206 +124 334024 052 082 000 00
233500 1657N 05144W 6977 02593 9291 +255 +114 044014 017 031 000 00
233530 1656N 05142W 6961 02600 9280 +258 +104 036007 016 /// /// 03
233600 1655N 05141W 6961 02589 9306 +221 +088 242032 053 049 000 03
233630 1655N 05139W 6987 02583 9380 +162 +121 219084 093 /// /// 03
233700 1657N 05137W 6953 02651 9427 +135 +133 203104 110 123 009 00
233730 1659N 05135W 6976 02676 //// +109 //// 188131 140 144 026 01
$$
;
Click to expand...

Woah! 144 kt SFMR, 140 FL, and 928 mb.
 
Snow_chaser said:
What’s the best site to follow to see imaging and is there a site to follow the HH live?
Click to expand...

Tropicaltidbits for images of HH Flight

Aircraft Reconnaissance | Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com

Live Recon in the Atlantic Data Site for quick and organized data sets.

Live Recon in the Atlantic Basin - Tropical Atlantic

View the latest Atlantic hurricane recon in Google Earth and Cesium.
tropicalatlantic.com

Lee (2023) - HDOB - Atlantic AF Miss. 2 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded High-Density Observations (HDOB) available for Lee in 2023 from Air Force mission 2 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
 
Should also note that Lee's eye is shrinking fairly quickly, so we might see some intense pressure drops per pass still. Feels unreal at how fast this got its act together. Was only a cat 1 yesterday at this time and now it most likely is a 5 or about to be officially one.
 
recon_AF306-0213A-LEE_dropsonde3_20230907-2335.png

931 mb.
 
weather bubba said:
Levi Cowan just posted on Twitter that this is one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the Atlantic he has ever seen. For a storm to go from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in a day is remarkable.
Click to expand...

This storm had record-breaking potential for the past few days in terms of intensification. Hurricane Lee also has had a shot to become the longest lasting major hurricane, category 4, and category 5. It's only over the past day that some of the hurricane models are trending in terms of intensification towards the top ten Atlantic Hurricanes.

All this during an El Nino. And look where it's doing it? The middle of the Atlantic Basin. The ACE from Lee and Margot is going to be pretty crazy.
 
Last edited:
314
URNT15 KNHC 080126
AF306 0213A LEE HDOB 32 20230908
011800 1731N 05232W 6967 03117 //// +114 //// 049069 073 061 000 01
011830 1730N 05230W 6966 03114 //// +112 //// 048070 070 062 000 01
011900 1729N 05229W 6967 03104 //// +104 //// 046071 073 063 000 01
011930 1728N 05228W 6966 03100 //// +103 //// 046074 075 064 001 01
012000 1727N 05227W 6969 03089 //// +103 //// 050079 080 067 000 01
012030 1726N 05225W 6967 03081 //// +091 //// 050081 082 070 002 01
012100 1725N 05224W 6965 03072 //// +092 //// 049082 084 074 001 01
012130 1724N 05223W 6965 03055 //// +085 //// 051089 091 076 004 01
012200 1723N 05222W 6969 03036 //// +084 //// 054090 091 079 002 01
012230 1722N 05221W 6974 03010 //// +098 //// 052093 096 081 001 01
012300 1720N 05219W 6967 02999 //// +093 //// 051098 101 084 015 01
012330 1720N 05218W 6967 02975 //// +078 //// 055106 111 089 028 01
012400 1719N 05217W 6972 02947 //// +074 //// 055114 117 095 018 01
012430 1718N 05216W 6955 02935 //// +077 //// 052122 125 101 015 01
012500 1717N 05215W 6973 02869 //// +065 //// 048130 134 113 040 01
012530 1716N 05214W 6967 02823 //// +073 //// 049141 145 128 078 01
012600 1715N 05213W 6922 02795 //// +094 //// 051133 144 152 055 01
012630 1714N 05212W 7146 02440 //// +127 //// 053102 119 157 035 01
012700 1713N 05211W 7031 02522 //// +196 //// 070067 092 143 000 01
012730 1712N 05210W 6953 02617 //// +262 //// 104030 048 082 000 01
$$
;
Click to expand...
145 kt FL, 157 kt SFMR. NW Eyewall. ?
 
Snowfan said:
145 kt FL, 157 kt SFMR. NW Eyewall. ?
Click to expand...

This 157Kt (180MPH) wind gust was found in a heavy band with rainfall rates of 3.07" an hour. Multiple 165MPH winds found around the storm. This is absolutely a category 5.

Also, the eye continues to shrink on each IR frame, so the winds could become more impressive on the next pass. Recon is getting battered right now.
 
Downeastnc said:
Probably gust? Since flight levels are not that high.
Click to expand...
Dropsonde found flight level winds of 158 knots. I'm thinking that 157 knot surface reading may not have been a fluke.

Lee (2023) - Sonde - Atlantic AF Miss. 2 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Lee in 2023 from Air Force mission 2 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com

930Mbs with 23MPH winds.

Lee (2023) - Sonde - Atlantic AF Miss. 2 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Lee in 2023 from Air Force mission 2 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.
Click to expand...
 
and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.
Click to expand...

Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility
Click to expand...


?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top