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Pattern Mega March 2023

My Bermuda is alreay greening up...in the 10 yrs I have been here this is by far the earliest it's greened up. It's 6 weeks ahead of schedule.

Some really nice weather coming up...cool springs are great.

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KyloG said:
My Bermuda is alreay greening up...in the 10 yrs I have been here this is by far the earliest it's greened up. It's 6 weeks ahead of schedule.

Some really nice weather coming up...cool springs are great.

View attachment 134067
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Mine too! Pollen count was 1605 yesterday and probably higher today. I understand it’s too warm too soon but can’t help but enjoy it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
KyloG said:
My Bermuda is alreay greening up...in the 10 yrs I have been here this is by far the earliest it's greened up. It's 6 weeks ahead of schedule.

Some really nice weather coming up...cool springs are great.

View attachment 134067
Click to expand...
Will be nice to finally have some seasonal weather. Today is the 66th day of the year and GSP has registered only 11 days below average. None since Feb 18th with many of those being double digits above. After today it will be more than 10 above for the month of March. The warmth this winter has been historic.
 
KyloG said:
My Bermuda is alreay greening up...in the 10 yrs I have been here this is by far the earliest it's greened up. It's 6 weeks ahead of schedule.

Some really nice weather coming up...cool springs are great.

View attachment 134067
Click to expand...
Pretty much a similar pace here as 2020-22 WRT greenup had a little frost kill this week though. Expect that I'll be full brown within the next 10 days this young bermuda has about 0 cold tolerance
 
superjames1992 said:
With March snowstorms you’re likely going to sneak a snowstorm into a string of weather like this (most likely at the beginning or end of it). I’ve seen late March light accumulating snowfall a day after temperatures were in the 70s. You’re not going to get extended cold this time of year, it’s not really possible with how strong the sun is in mid-March, but that doesn’t mean we can’t sneak a nighttime snowstorm in, even if it’s in the upper 50s with a river of melting 24 hours later.

I remember with the February 25, 2015 snowstorm it was in the mid-50s during the day and sunny and then it was pouring snow by late evening with temperatures around freezing. Give us cold mid levels and good rates and good things can happen. More of an uphill battle than in January, of course.

As a disclaimer, I think the chances that we make anything of this pattern are fairly small (and let’s be real, we can blow a good pattern and come up empty even in January sometimes), but people also shouldn’t write it off as impossible.
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This came last March on the 11th with temps in the mid 60s the day before and upper 50s day of. I kept hearing temps would keep us from getting big totals but as you see the extreme heavy rates overcame. People saying we shouldn’t expect snow in March is not true for all of us. Up here it’s almost a guarantee about every 3 winters or so to get a sloppy 2-4 inch snowfall in March. It usually happens between March 5th-13th. Since 2015 I’ve had a 2 inch ,4 inch and 6 inch snowfall in March.

March 11th 2023 6 inches
8E89FC3C-871E-4E9F-9989-A4552C4BBD94.jpeg
March 12th 2018 2 inches
DF3A6AD3-78F7-444E-A84B-501781FA6C27.jpeg
March 5th 2015 4 plus inches
4D8818F7-ACED-403E-939B-19F2DAB059D7.jpeg
 
KyloG said:
My Bermuda is alreay greening up...in the 10 yrs I have been here this is by far the earliest it's greened up. It's 6 weeks ahead of schedule.

Some really nice weather coming up...cool springs are great.

View attachment 134067
Click to expand...
I’ve had to mow my yard twice already. First mow was in late February which maybe I’ve had to do 1 other time. A normal winter I’m looking at the 2nd or 3rd week of March before I have to mow.
 
olhausen said:
This came last March on the 11th with temps in the mid 60s the day before and upper 50s day of. I kept hearing temps would keep us from getting big totals but as you see the extreme heavy rates overcame. People saying we shouldn’t expect snow in March is not true for all of us. Up here it’s almost a guarantee about every 3 winters or so to get a sloppy 2-4 inch snowfall in March. It usually happens between March 5th-13th. Since 2015 I’ve had a 2 inch ,4 inch and 6 inch snowfall in March.

March 11th 2023 6 inches
View attachment 134073
March 12th 2018 2 inches
View attachment 134074
March 5th 2015 4 plus inches
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One of the heaviest snows ever, fell on Atlanta on March 24, 1983, 7.9 inches
 
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KyloG said:
Aleutian ridge, west coast trough...same ole same ole

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Well, it was showing this for Saturday at D10:

eps_T850a_us_41.png

Now we have this:

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I guess that's a pretty good forecast. Maybe your image will change for the better, given that it's 336 hours out from now. ?‍♂️
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Tbh that’s why ens means that far out is overrated some cluster of members had this similar look
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I get that, but I'm sure within any given ensemble suite, if it has enough members, you can probably pick any handful of members that hit close to the actual solution.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Well, it was showing this for Saturday at D10:

View attachment 134085

Now we have this:

View attachment 134086

I guess that's a pretty good forecast. Maybe your image will change for the better, given that it's 336 hours out from now. ?‍♂️
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Fair point, but the image he showed was only 192 hours out and trending colder… not saying it’s right, but I think most of us will be seeing 10-15 degrees below average for that time period
 
Hpdb301 said:
Once the SER starts building it's hard to knock it back down, it happens but it seems to take some major pressure changes to push it back south. It's always hell for models to properly depict. It happens but its tough! I would assume the models standard input is from times past climatological data and as we've seen in the past 10 years what seems to be a change or shift from that standard is. I don't research or study this stuff except for personal interests, but have seen a significant struggle in model output to depict the dreaded SER or Southeastern Ridge and how much influence it has on the weather in the eastern conus this time of year the models regularly depict cold pushes to the Florida coasts in the long range and day by day those outputs continually recede keeping the cold pushed back. What the exact kicker is to say what pressure variant and where on the globe these have to be to allow for the cold pushes this time of year, I have no clue! But I would imagine if you located those keys, you'd be able to accurately depict cold pushes this time of year... my unprofessional 4am thoughts.
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Haven’t really been looking at anything the last few days because to me outside of some below average temps for a few days, winter is over. What I feared would happen 2 weeks ago happened with a big below average anomaly fest in the long range moderated. Shouldn’t be surprised as all of these models spit out ridiculous cold in the winter and heat in the summer in the LR just to come back to reality plus counting on record breaking cold in mid March when air masses are moderating probably isn’t smart either. Only thing that gave me hope was that it didn’t look like a typical 2 day cold blast that’s in and out and actually was modeled to have some staying power. Severe weather season me as this has been as depressing of a winter as I can remember in a long time.
 
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