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Pattern Jammin January 2023

LukeBarrette said:
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It’s a miss but this should be watched
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December 2017 redux. Could get a big apps rubber though. Trough digs in between the +PNA and Atlantic ridge. Nowhere else to go but to rub. I’d actually welcome that solution. I’ll go skiing again
 
next weekend
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Snowlover87 said:
It really does seem like the further west you go in the south, the easier it is to snow. For example, i'm pretty sure it's easier to get snow in Dallas, TX than in Macon, GA, despite being the same latitude.
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Because you aren’t relying on one single wind direction for cold air because there are no geographical obstructions like the Appalachian mountains.
 
Stormlover said:
From Joe Bastardi: The heartland is going to get blasted with major cold and more snow with this pattern than in December
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He has stuck to his forecast despite all the different models the last several weeks. He has said the past 3 weeks when models and forecasts were showing major warm up cold was coming back toward end of Jan. Then relax and comes back March and April. We shall see
 
POWERSTROKE said:
He has stuck to his forecast despite all the different models the last several weeks. He has said the past 3 weeks when models and forecasts were showing major warm up cold was coming back toward end of Jan. Then relax and comes back March and April. We shall see
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He did say early last week that cold could take hold for the rest of the winter into March without much of a warm up… I still disagree with that as I still think we’ll see at least a couple warm weeks in February. However as Webb showed earlier today, there does appear to be legitimate way to not see that much of a warm up or at least a shorter one.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
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For those of us East of the Apps (and NGA) the glaring missing ingredient here is a HP to the north of us. Give us a 1032 in Western NY or 1030 in PA and we've got some cold air anchored in with a true overrunning scenario, and push that L down to SAV to JXV. That would be a beaut verbatim.
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Sometimes it just doesn’t want to snow here. It would rather punch us in the teeth. Repeatedly 945C3242-AF83-4F6E-A000-F32DFC3F76C5.gif
 
Chazwin said:
He did say early last week that cold could take hold for the rest of the winter into March without much of a warm up… I still disagree with that as I still think we’ll see at least a couple warm weeks in February. However as Webb showed earlier today, there does appear to be legitimate way to not see that much of a warm up or at least a shorter one.
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He said it was a possibility cold could stay but he has said for weeks relaxes then comes back for March and April to make a below average spring. He has not bounced around swearing winter is over and going to torch then change his mind back to possibility cold like some. He is all about patterns not snow in my back yard. So far he has been right shall see for later. Most change with every model run. But each to their own.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
He said it was a possibility cold could stay but he has said for weeks relaxes then comes back for March and April to make a below average spring. He has not bounced around swearing winter is over and going to torch then change his mind back to possibility cold like some. He is all about patterns not snow in my back yard. So far he has been right shall see for later. Most change with every model run. But each to their own.
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What good does March and April being cold if it were turn out colder than average . Winters over then practically
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
this pattern is still not great at all to me, hence the lack of posts View attachment 130648View attachment 130649View attachment 130650
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No it's really not. Looks good for cold rain. Desperation has kicked in and patience is running out since most know the deck is stacked against us in Feb. It's not a shutout and it could snow but the lack of storms on all models and ensembles is really telling that its not great. Good patterns are loaded with fantasy storms even if they are just fantasy and never come to fruition.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
this pattern is still not great at all to me, hence the lack of posts View attachment 130648View attachment 130649View attachment 130650
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It’s a quick shot to score before the SER flexes but it’s way more of a chance than we would have gotten about a week ago when all hope was lost it seems for many. We got about 5 or so days to figure something out late January with the cold air we are dealt. Then we hope for a SSWE which could make the end of February and early march a fever dream. That’s about that
 
Stormlover said:
From Joe Bastardi: The heartland is going to get blasted with major cold and more snow with this pattern than in December
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Thing is, the reason I quit following JB is because when he talks about Cold and Snow (any wintry weather pretty much) you have to remember he is mostly talking about the NE and Upper Midwest and very likely not even factoring the SE in his "cold and wintry" weather predictions. We are an extreme after thought to him until Hurricane season comes along. Making broad statements like the one quoted above need to be understood in the proper JB context
 
Also the indices give us a small window of time to get wintry weather here in the SE before going to a very warm period. Only the CMC Ensemble gives any hope but by and large even it goes with a heavily negative PNA and positive NAO predictions of the GFS and Euro Ensembles. My advice if you want to see good stuff here in our part of the world, don't look at this mornings teleconnections
 
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