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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Webberweather53 said:
You can already see the -PNA fixing to set up on the models around day 15-16 as the big Aleutian trough begins to retreat towards far eastern Siberia. I still don’t see much in the way of +EAMT to save us.
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Wait, don't tell me you put any faith in a day-16 weather model forecast. Don't you have anything positive to say?
 
GEPS still looks pretty decent last 8-10 days of the month. Its a window that could yield an opportunity. Hopefully EPS is on board, I don't have access. If Webbs Feb forecast holds serve, then we will be relying on a spring/March haymaker to score this year if we don't cash in late Jan.

We are running an astounding +10 above normal for January so far at GSO. registered a -4.6 yesterday. Got smoked the first 5 days.

2023-01-01584853.012.91200.000.00
2023-01-02594451.511.51300.000.00
2023-01-03685360.520.5400.060.00
2023-01-04625659.019.1600.830.00
2023-01-05654354.014.21100.000.00
2023-01-06553545.05.32000.000.00
2023-01-07503241.01.3240T0.00
2023-01-08373335.0-4.63000.18MM
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Wait, don't tell me you put any faith in a day-16 weather model forecast. Don't you have anything positive to say?
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No, because there's nothing positive about where we're probably headed.

I've been saying this for weeks. I try to be as objective/unbiased as possible, it rubs some people the wrong way because I'm not always going to be positive to just tell you what you want to hear (like JB, etc.). In this case, I don't see many positives, and as meh as the pattern looks in late January (yes we have +PNA and E US trough, but no real cold air still until at least Jan 25 because of all the mild Pacific air initially in place that needs to be flushed out), it probably in general gets less favorable for cold/snow as we move into February.









Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, this my general sentiment on January (as things currently stand)

-The first week or so is very likely going to be warm & fairly wet/stormy. Need to be on the lookout for severe weather across the lower MS Valley & Gulf coast especially.

Once we get to/past Jan 10th ish, we should see more of a canonical El Nino/+PNA pattern return. We'll probably progressively step down from this super mild pattern to a seasonable one, that eventually becomes rather cool again as we move into mid-late January.

Imho, after this potential chance ~Dec 26-27th or so, our next best window is probably somewhere in/around the 3rd week of January (~ Jan 14-25 ish). There may very well be a storm or two that shows up between now & then, but the air masses earlier on in January are more liable to be stale, more temperate continental polar ones, capable of delivering snow primarily to climo favored areas of the Appalachian mountains, etc.

I also tentatively suspect we may see the -EPO also make a return sometime late in January and eventually evolve into a more classic -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge La Nina pattern in February (typical evolution for a winter like this).


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NCHighCountryWX said:
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I remember when he said he didn't believe the warm pattern on the models in early-mid January because the MJO was in phase 8. :rolleyes:

It's verifying as one of our warmest starts to January on record & really won't be cooling off (anomalously) until the last week or so of the month. Even then, we'll almost certainly end up well above average

Screen Shot 2023-01-09 at 6.21.08 AM.png
 
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:

1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"

So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
 
BullCityWx said:
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:

1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"

So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
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Worth mentioning to that of these winters, all the above normal ones (1923-24, 1940-41, 2014-15) were El Nino winters, so the odds are probably even lower than 20% if I had to guess.

The deck is/has been stacked against us getting a good snowy winter ever since we missed our opportunity in December. Could happen, but it's a huge long shot.
 
BullCityWx said:
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:

1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"

So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
Click to expand...


those dates are very interesting.......77 percent of the snowless days are 1947 and older? only 2 after 1948? Am I understanding the dates correctly?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Worth mentioning to that of these winters, all the above normal ones (1923-24, 1940-41, 2014-15) were El Nino winters, so the odds are probably even lower than 20% if I had to guess.

The deck is/has been stacked against us getting a good snowy winter ever since we missed our opportunity in December. Could happen, but it's a huge long shot.
Click to expand...

Maybe we just shut it down till March when we probably get some model mirage fantasy storms.

Well I guess the mountains still have a shot with the system later this week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BullCityWx said:
IF KCLT blanks in January(which is more likely right now than not), here are winters that featured nothing for Nov-Dec-Jan:

1900-1901: 1"
1910-1911: .1"
1923-1924: 4.7"
1931-1932: .1"
1933-1934: .4"
1940-1941: 4.1"
1946-1947: 1.3"
2011-2012: T
2014-2015: 3"

So at the very best, according to these historical numbers, you're looking at a 20% shot at normal snowfall`with a 50% chance of 1" or less.
Click to expand...
I might be wrong but I do think that KCLT officially had a Trace in 12/20…
 
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