I had originally thought so as well but it was not in the EF-6 for December.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Yes… weaker El Niño are preferred as moderate to strong ones tend to see the Pacific jet amp up and flood the continent with mild air
Wow… that’s surprising. Basically every reporting station in CLT metro recorded at least some sleet or snow that day (sleet counts as snowfall in official records). I know I had over 8 hours of sleet falling that day
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, except the last time we had one, the Indian Ocean dipole or something made it act like a Nina. Seriously, I really don't know what to look for anymore. The atmosphere just always wants to make the east coast warmer it seems. The pacific seems to be in a phase where the convection in the maritimes messes us up more than not.
griteater
Member
I don’t share this sentiment ha. Been some good mod-strong ones over the years (09-10, 02-03, 86-87, 87-88, 65-66, 57-58). It’s the Super Ninos that are the most problematic (15-16, 97-98), though strong-super ninos 82-83 & 72-73 were wintry. Climate change may be playing a role though as the weak El Niños haven’t been cold really since the 70’s…the last good one was 79-80 (AVL-GSO did have the big snow in Dec ‘18…Weak Nino)
It’s a trade off. Nino gives you the best chance at southern stream waves and gulf lows, with risks for mild west to east Pac flow at times. Nina gives you some cold outbreaks with risks for -PNA periods…but also, -AO/-NAO have been more common in Niña compared to Nino over the last 30 years
Regarding next winter, the general sentiment is that we move toward Nino, but it doesn’t look like to me that we are going boldly in that direction
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Anyone have a look at these? It’s leaking my interest. Heard the control might have been good too
rburrel2
Member
A mild February doesn't necessarily mean below average winter weather. Sometimes SER works in our favor, especially for ice. January is going to come out way above normal on temps in most of our locations, but we could still score a blockbuster storm the last week of the month.
It's fun to discuss and follow pattern recognition, but ultimately it doesn't correlate all that much with wintry weather in the Southeast, imo. I've seen lots of great patterns produce nothing, and lots of great wintry events in the midst of gross patterns. Overall, It's much more useful when discussing temperature anomalies, (but most of us aren't here to track cold/warm air events).
It's fun to discuss and follow pattern recognition, but ultimately it doesn't correlate all that much with wintry weather in the Southeast, imo. I've seen lots of great patterns produce nothing, and lots of great wintry events in the midst of gross patterns. Overall, It's much more useful when discussing temperature anomalies, (but most of us aren't here to track cold/warm air events).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We could start by just getting average temperatures in our neck of the woods. Even the big trough on the eps really only pushes most locales closer to seasonal norms because there’s so much mild air in front of it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s a very valid consideration in any long term forecast more than a week or so out.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Another overlooked factor is the ENSO’s orientation. West based el-ninos are best, regardless of their strength. East based La Nina’s can mimic a WB El Niño and be quite good. East based El Niño’s are usually rough.
That was the one I mentioned to earlier
ajr
Member
EPS looks better than GEFS, but don't get the sense it's enough to make it more interesting beyond rain -> backside NW flow snow for the mountains.
Small aside, but it's unfortunate that this look isn't giving more of a us an opportunity to see flakes:
IMO, what we really need to see to get some legitimate chances for those of us east of the mountains is some better snowpack in the northeast. It’s absolutely putrid right now especially considering we’re going into mid-January. Hopefully they to cash in later this week, so that we have a better chance at scoring on some CAD opportunities.
Another good run for the Gatlinburg area 
CMC looking like it’s jogging to what some of the EPS was starting to support .. don’t write this one off completely yet for NC folks
I want to think that as well but the jogs will need to continue on future runs. Take a few jumps actually to get in range of mby
The euro control run from this morning at 6z:
Substantial upticks on the ??
That low was churning pretty far south at 12z
Gatlinburg area with about a foot
That low was churning pretty far south at 12z
Gatlinburg area with about a foot