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Pattern Jammin January 2023

I was looking at some of our big late winter/Spring events here , to see when most happen to occur/ what the background state was. Interesting 1993 was really a neutral year, hairline slip into la nina territory. The top 5 Spring events I can recall in NC: 2014, 1993,1960, Feb 28,2004, March 1980 all had neutral signals leaning toward weak la nina, except one of these years which was neutral leaning slightly el nino.

oni1990.png



El Niño - 26La Niña - 24
Weak - 11Moderate - 7Strong - 5Very Strong - 3Weak - 11Moderate - 6Strong - 7
1952-531951-521957-581982-831954-551955-561973-74
1953-541963-641965-661997-981964-651970-711975-76
1958-591968-691972-732015-161971-721995-961988-89
1969-701986-871987-881974-752011-121998-99
1976-771994-951991-921983-842020-211999-00
1977-782002-031984-852021-222007-08
1979-802009-102000-012010-11
2004-052005-06
2006-072008-09
2014-152016-17
2018-192017-18
2022-23
 
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SER is fixing to flex and we will CAD ourselves to death. Go ahead and get ready for upper 60’s and low 70’s across I20 and and I95 with upper 30’s and low 40’s back my way.
 
iGRXY said:
SER is fixing to flex and we will CAD ourselves to death. Go ahead and get ready for upper 60’s and low 70’s across I20 and and I95 with upper 30’s and low 40’s back my way.
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This works for me. Hopefully we can get as much rain out of this upcoming time period as possible. We need it.BFEBAC08-1CC8-4663-AED8-11FFF9A00338.png129FEC97-ED57-4AC3-8A17-53D0C824EC98.png
 
whatalife said:
This works for me. Hopefully we can get as much rain out of this upcoming time period as possible. We need it.View attachment 130709View attachment 130710
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Oh yeah, we are going to stay wet with that type of pattern. Even when it isn't raining, we are going to be misty 24/7 in the CAD areas on an already soaked ground. I think we have more issues with mudslides coming up than we do with snow or ice.
 
Someone had mentioned March 1960. So I go over to check out JB this morning. And believe it or not JB mentioned 1960. So he showed mid February 1960 Stratwarm. and results for early March 1960 ?

JB - So I am looking at this euro and I decided to snoop around. And I decided to snoop around to 1960
Stratwarm of mid Feb 1960
compday_pmSU2GQXvz.gif

Set up the coldest front 2 weeks of March 1960 in a century
compday_JJ6dVKO8Q6.gif

Temps
compday_lu3ZwIXrev.gif


Man would it not be crazy awesome just to get something remotely close to March 1960.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Someone had mentioned March 1960. So I go over to check out JB this morning. And believe it or not JB mentioned 1960. So he showed mid February 1960 Stratwarm. and results for early March 1960 ?

JB - So I am looking at this euro and I decided to snoop around. And I decided to snoop around to 1960
Stratwarm of mid Feb 1960
compday_pmSU2GQXvz.gif

Set up the coldest front 2 weeks of March 1960 in a century
compday_JJ6dVKO8Q6.gif

Temps
compday_lu3ZwIXrev.gif
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we always have a chance of late snow here in NC. As a contractor, we have had multiple storms from the last week of February into March. This is only the second year in the last 10 years we have had nothing to even treat in our area. I believe the last time was 2016 or 2017 when we did nothing until April when we finally got to put some salt out.
 
iGRXY said:
SER is fixing to flex and we will CAD ourselves to death. Go ahead and get ready for upper 60’s and low 70’s across I20 and and I95 with upper 30’s and low 40’s back my way.
Click to expand...
And all that will mean back our way is cold rains unless we can really lock in some cold. But even then with overrunning like that is ice/Sleet storm

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BIG FROSTY said:
Someone had mentioned March 1960. So I go over to check out JB this morning. And believe it or not JB mentioned 1960. So he showed mid February 1960 Stratwarm. and results for early March 1960 ?

JB - So I am looking at this euro and I decided to snoop around. And I decided to snoop around to 1960
Stratwarm of mid Feb 1960
compday_pmSU2GQXvz.gif

Set up the coldest front 2 weeks of March 1960 in a century
compday_JJ6dVKO8Q6.gif

Temps
compday_lu3ZwIXrev.gif


Man would it not be crazy awesome just to get something remotely close to March 1960.
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It's just not going to happen, getting cold like that in March anymore. We don't really get cold very much in mid-winter anymore, much less March. Cool, sure. Freak snow that melts within 24 hours, sure. But a multi-week very cold period, no way.

There aren't any real good historical comps for the present time. Something has changed. We're just much warmer in the winter now with the very rare exception.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's just not going to happen, getting cold like that in March anymore. We don't really get cold very much in mid-winter anymore, much less March. Cool, sure. Freak snow that melts within 24 hours, sure. But a multi-week very cold period, no way.

There aren't any real good historical comps for the present time. Something has changed. We're just much warmer in the winter now with the very rare exception.
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i think that this sentiment is correct but i would take about 10% off the doomerism. this extended la nina and generally meh base state has made us put on, well, what's the opposite of rose colored glasses?

i still think we can get extended cold in mid winter, and we can get cold in march, and that we've had some pretty bad luck the last few years. it's still possible. but the background climate has changed to make these things a little harder and turned the probability dial a little against us. it's doing a pull up with a 5 pound weight; still doable but a little harder.

main point i think there's room to acknowledge that it's a little more difficult than it used to be, but there's still plenty of room for to actually still have optimism in the near/medium range
 
Rain Cold said:
It's just not going to happen, getting cold like that in March anymore. We don't really get cold very much in mid-winter anymore, much less March. Cool, sure. Freak snow that melts within 24 hours, sure. But a multi-week very cold period, no way.

There aren't any real good historical comps for the present time. Something has changed. We're just much warmer in the winter now with the very rare exception.
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Agreed...For us, central NC, we just don't see accumulating snow after March 1st. This ain't the 1960's.
 
The saddest thing is that we can still get conditions for snow no problem, but every time a trough digs into the east (no matter how strong) our southern stream waves flatten out and laugh at us as they skirt to our south and tease @metwannabe with coastal development a couple days later. Sometimes it just doesn’t want to snow and that’s all it really is.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Someone had mentioned March 1960. So I go over to check out JB this morning. And believe it or not JB mentioned 1960. So he showed mid February 1960 Stratwarm. and results for early March 1960 ?

JB - So I am looking at this euro and I decided to snoop around. And I decided to snoop around to 1960
Stratwarm of mid Feb 1960
compday_pmSU2GQXvz.gif

Set up the coldest front 2 weeks of March 1960 in a century
compday_JJ6dVKO8Q6.gif

Temps
compday_lu3ZwIXrev.gif


Man would it not be crazy awesome just to get something remotely close to March 1960.
Click to expand...
Ill take a redux of March 1960 or March 2014 All day long. Both where Awesome, and March 1980 wasnt to shabby eitheir. Beleive that was the big Down East Snow apocalypse storm.
 
I dunno guys…the GFS is trying the sniff something out. A bit more stream interaction and gets interesting y’all.


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packfan98 said:
Well, this will end in more pain. Fantasy snow isn't as exciting as it was at the beginning of the season...
prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png
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I'd be weary of completely writing things off there is a ton of cold sitting along the us/can bordereps_T850a_nhem_49.png
With a number of sfc highs stringing along
eps_mslpa_nhem_44.png

It's not a classic but it's not impossible and it's certainly not an ugly pattern where Noam is flooded with warm air and it's realistically dead
 
It seems we might have a little too much confidence in the models, in regard to pattern changes, and and snow possibilities after 10 days. Even the ensembles can do pretty bad. Here is an example of the Gef as of 7 days ago compared to now. 7 days ago, (and even 3 or 4 days ago) it sure looked like the La nina Atlantic ridge was going to end winter for the foreseeable future. I am sure we will see the Atlantic ridge in total domination of our weather soon enough. we are his home field after all, but I think it is definitely way too early to call the fight either way.


one week ago 10 day forecast
gfs-ens_z500a_us_41.png


this evolves to this in 5 days
gfs-ens_z500a_us_61.png



the same time period forecast almost one week later

beginning 06z JAN 23
gfs-ens_z500a_us_15.png


ending here
gfs-ens_z500a_us_36.png
 
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POWERSTROKE said:
we always have a chance of late snow here in NC. As a contractor, we have had multiple storms from the last week of February into March. This is only the second year in the last 10 years we have had nothing to even treat in our area. I believe the last time was 2016 or 2017 when we did nothing until April when we finally got to put some salt out.
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Feb 24 1989 and Mar 2 1980 are still the biggest events in my lifetime....
 
1048 high dropping down at the end of the euro. We are going to have a lot of high pressures dropping down in this pattern. Moderation will obviously happen but if you think you can escape this pattern with more warm days than cold in the CAD regions you’re going to get a rude awakening. Cold rain CAD will be in full force at times
 
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