It's extremely close for N half of NC that's for sure and not in lala land either.
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
We'd be attempting to flurry here but it's awfully dry below 700mb. Almost want this to move through mid afternoon to see if we could steepen lapse rates and get a little convection 
Fountainguy97
Member
Need it negative tilt a bit sooner to get that low up against the coast. But a nice shift
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Mildly interesting is certainly a good way to put it, with special emphasis on mild. I don't see much to get excited about here east of the mountains, other than a few backside snow flurries if we hit everything just right.
I know we are all in the South, but there is some wild changes going on with this secondary low over the last 24 hours. Euro now has a Winter storm for the Northeast with that secondary low. Snow all the way down to the Delmarva.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep right now any trust in a model past hour 12 of the HRRR is not warranted. We should have major trust issues.
Fountainguy97
Member
Northern stream energy is everything for this weekend. Models are strengthening that diving energy and it becomes the dominant piece at the bottom of the trough.
need this to continue to trend this way. In this case we actually need more of an inland track which is complete opposite of where we normally are.
need this to continue to trend this way. In this case we actually need more of an inland track which is complete opposite of where we normally are.
Euro crushes Gatlinburg. Sneaks some snow over the mountains. Good run 
It is. But, that's a lot better look and wouldn't take but another couple of ticks SW to get pretty darn interesting.
You could make up a dream scenario where there is more separation between the lead wave and the trailer and they act as 2 independent systems but given the seasonal trend really for the last 2 winters of a faster jet and less western ridge amplitude as you close in on hour 0 I doubt we get that lucky. I'd be happy to just get a few flurries or a quick period of legitimate light snow and even that might be hard to do as presented by the 2 most enthusiastic models.
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packfan98
Moderator
Pretty cool. When the EPS has 101 members, maybe we can find one that buries our backyards???
griteater
Member
I’d rather they just bring back the version from 15 years ago and call it a day
Meanwhile the GFS is eating it's glue stick.
GEFS and GEPS so far continuing to indicate a cooler forecasted period by late month. Nothing that’s going to take away how warm it’s been but a period where we legit could actually score something wintry.
So the Euro will have a 9KM(5.5 miles) space between gridpoints on the model. The GFS currently is 28KM(18 miles) between data points. Imagine there's a map with a point plopped at RDU airport. About 18 miles away is Eno River State Park.Will this help increase accuracy?
Similarly, imagine a point plopped 5.5 miles from RDU as the crow flies, roughly Crabtree Valley Mall. That means there’s about 13 miles less distance between data points.
The euro has vastly more data to work with.
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griteater
Member
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I hate to beat a dead horse again and again and again but the air just isn't cold and the torch is coming back 5 days after this.Jan 20-24 on the EPS Mean and EPS Control run
