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Pattern Jammin January 2023

I got a feeling we’re going to get a Miller B at some point during the next 3 weeks. Too much CAD potential already showing up in extended timeframes and CAD beats SER out 9/10 times around here. Problem is it almost certainly will be ice as the upper levels will be above average. As much moisture setting up over the southeast you’re just asking for repeatedly developing 50/50 lows as these things head NE. That’s why I don’t trip about SER flexes because I already know in the Western Carolinas and NEGA we will be sitting under 40 degree grey skies the majority of the time and with some good timing get at least maybe some onset snow to ice
 
The PV looks permanently busted on the gfs… lots of cold lobes in mid-latitudes but the pacific is just killing us. Good thing is if the arctic blocking materializes it won’t take much for a threat to materialize. I’m still cautiously optimistic.
 
Dropped off to 24.4 last night. They've got IP/ZR in the forecast late tonight and tomorrow morning could I get my 3rd WWA issued? I've been under 2 WWA's so far that I never seen anything but a cold rain. lol

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and sleet after midnight. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

SUNDAY
Sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Rain. Little or no sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Highs around 40. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol Feb 2021 vibes View attachment 130794View attachment 130795
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It is but you gotta remember for those of us in the western and central Carolinas, we really didn’t get that warm during that period. Lots of CAD. There is a lot of similarities over the next couple weeks to February 1994 that produced that huge ice/sleet storm for the western SE and western/central Carolinas. The SER is flexing, but there is definitely signs of a lot of CAD, and we all know how that ends 95% of the time
 
I seem to recall a fantasy map like this 02/21. You know, before the Nw trend and all.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Fab Feb rolling in with a arctic front on GFS


View attachment 130818
Click to expand...
It's really not out of the question with so much cold air just to our north. Eventually sagging south and an overrunning event very plausible and certainly not unheard of
 
CMC/GFS at day 9-10. CMC was getting warmmm, while GFS progresses the pattern. Icon at day 7 already had the GOA/Aleutian ridge setting up with energy riding it, so a more CMC route E1F9CBC3-C727-4779-BEE5-55994DD9E427.png7065948D-BE62-4199-8F84-A7CCE5EF01C1.png
 
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