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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Heck, It might snow right to the end of this epic fantasy run.

gfs_z500_vort_us_49.png
 
As much as I would love this type of thing. We need a lot to go our way. We need the polar vortex to literally park into the Midwest have consistent strong high pressures riding through the north to keep pushing our storm track south and letting that cold air bleed further east and shunt the SER .. of course that clash of warm and cold is what brings on these big time precip events but to get all those pieces to work out for us all the way down here in the SE .. going to be a tall task.

I do think with the general look of having very cold air to our north an overrunning/CAD event on a much lighter scale could be more reasonable for some but we are far from a slam dunk here.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
As much as I would love this type of thing. We need a lot to go our way. We need the polar vortex to literally park into the Midwest have consistent strong high pressures riding through the north to keep pushing our storm track south and letting that cold air bleed further east and shunt the SER .. of course that clash of warm and cold is what brings on these big time precip events but to get all those pieces to work out for us all the way down here in the SE .. going to be a tall task.

I do think with the general look of having very cold air to our north an overrunning/CAD event on a much lighter scale could be more reasonable for some but we are far from a slam dunk here.
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Yep, lets get this under day 7 and have some other model support before we truly get excited.
 
This is at the heart of the storm.. you see we actually need the SER to get such a widespread precip event like this because of the temp gradient that is presented. Those gradients fuel storms like these.

But we’re asking to be on the perfect side of the placement of SER and polar vortex at 270 hours which we all know won’t happen this far out. We could easily be 70 degrees by 18z at the same time96DD11AE-0565-466B-A3E8-0AD07C94517F.jpeg
 
CltNative90 said:
Looks a lot like the long overrunning event the GFS was showing for a couple runs in February 2021, before everything shifted west. Not getting too excited over one model run but interesting to say the least.
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At least we are seeing fantasy storms now. That is a step in the right direction. However, it needs lots more support before I will even raise an eyebrow.
 
Stevo24 said:
Every one of us on here would have a better shot at winning the powerball. With that being said, let’s do this GFS.
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Yeah, I'm not sure how many times there has been a similar winter storm for the SE. We've had two-foot snowstorms but man this would be the storm of the century(s).
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
At least we are seeing fantasy storms now. That is a step in the right direction. However, it needs lots more support before I will even raise an eyebrow.
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Tell the truth man. If by some miracle this is still there at 18z, we'll all be glued to the screen for the next episode at 00Z LMAO.
 
FallsLake said:
Kuchera snow totals for both storms.

View attachment 130842

Someday it would be fun to have a storm like this.
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Ok so two approaches I can think of:
1. Bribe/pay/manipulate/appease/convince whomever we have to to make this happen
2. Find the right superstitious ritual. Wearing the right thing, drinking from the right cup, using the right pen...

Whatever it takes but we gotta be on our game and bring this one home! ?
 
12z Canadian is similar at day 10 with the very cold/dry air to the NW. This could be a setup where a SE ridge works in our favor. The cold pushes in from the NW undercutting the warm air from the SE ridge. JB stated many years back that the cold air would usually undercut more than what was shown on the LR models.

Canadian dewpoints at day 10:
1674322123743.png
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Ok so two approaches I can think of:
1. Bribe/pay/manipulate/appease/convince whomever we have to to make this happen
2. Find the right superstitious ritual. Wearing the right thing, drinking from the right cup, using the right pen...

Whatever it takes but we gotta be on our game and bring this one home! ?
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Let me add to that list:
  • Do not purchase a sled, shovel, ice melt, snow blowers, chains or anything that would jinx us.
  • Appease the snow gods by sacrificing a chicken each Sunday for lunch.
  • Do not shave or get a haircut until it snows
  • Wear the same underwear until it has to be thrown away.... never do you dare wash it.
  • Never tell any family members of a pending snow storm, never post any tweets about it, and never discuss model outputs with co-workers, even if it is 24 hours out.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Let me add to that list:
  • Do not purchase a sled, shovel, ice melt, snow blowers, chains or anything that would jinx us.
  • Appease the snow gods by sacrificing a chicken each Sunday for lunch.
  • Do not shave or get a haircut until it snows
  • Wear the same underwear until it has to be thrown away.... never do you dare wash it.
  • Never tell any family members of a pending snow storm, never post any tweets about it, and never discuss model outputs with co-workers, even if it is 24 hours out.
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I’m guilty of the last one. I’ve told family members and usually end up looking like a fool.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
By the way none of the individual members had even remotely close to the 12z GFS but some presented some small winter precip events .. 18z and beyond will change
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I’m confused as to why we even look at models when their members are completely different. It just seems like a waste.
 
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